Would be surprising if Erdogan doesn't win in the 1st round. Most Turks that I know who are AK supporters don't mind more checks on his power. Looks like he'll be in a run-off with Ince which could be interesting.
The AK Party’s alliance with the nationalist MHP would fall short of a majority in the 600-seat assembly, with 48.7 percent of the votes in one of the polls too.