The New Cold War

Poitier

Poitier

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The Russia China Axis continues to form
2014 MAY 23

by Ian Welsh
So, the Russians and Chinese, after 10 years of haggling, have signed a gas deal worth 400 billion or so.

The timing is not coincidental, of course: Russia needs to diversify who it sell to. The next major step, which will be years in coming, is arranging how to supply India.

The US has been pivoting against China, reassuring its allies in the Pacific, that US ocean, that it is on their side against a China which is pushing territorial claims aggressively. China knows that many in the US consider it the real enemy: the real threat, because of its burgeoning economy and its massive industrial base (shipped to it by American capitalists, selling China the rope to hang the American Empire with.)

As I have noted before, the price of the Ukraine is a firm alignment of Russia with China. Russia needs China’s goods, money and political support; China will also be happy to have a security council ally and buy all those Russian commodities.

Japan is a firm American ally, and likely to remain so. It will increase the size of its military, but Japan’s long stagnation has now turned into actual decline, with regular trade deficits with no end in sight, since it has been shipping much of its industry offshore, and not creating the new generations of the best or cheapest goods. Demographic decline, likewise, continues, and Japanese xenophobia makes it impossible for them to use immigration as a cure, while the declining economy and tight pressed quarters means there’s no reason to expect the Japanese themselves to start breeding.

Europe has firmly aligned with America, indicating willingness to cut its own throat with trade sanctions against Russia, if necessary. South America and central America is unlikely to align en-masse with America for obvious historical reasons: America has been the enemy of most states there for over a century, with its willingness to attempt to overthrow any government it doesn’t like.

The Middle East grows less important as solar and alternative sources for oil come on line, and as their own reserves deteriorate. To be sure, it will matter for decades yet, but it is no longer the most important region on the earth. Sub-Saharan Africa, sadly, is largely irrelevant: they will sell their resources to whoever pays for them.

This leaves India s the last major country in play. But for them, the smart play is to stay out of it, keep good relations with both sides, and let China and the US slag each other, coming up the middle to be the next hegemonic power.

To be sure, many will say that China and the US can never seriously fight: they need each other too much. Such people are fools: American consumers grow weaker, US treasuries are a sunk asset, and China will have to move to a domestic consumer society at some point: raising the income of their own citizens and selling the goods to Chinese.

The game of empire never ends, it only changes. The Russians are now aligned with the Chinese because of European and American stupidity: Putin and the Russians, for many years, longed to be Europeans and it would have required only a little respect to keep bring them into the Western camp.

Such strategic mistakes often seal the fate of Empires.
Click to expand...

http://www.ianwelsh.net/the-russia-china-axis-continues-to-form/


https://twitter.com/iwelsh
 
Poitier

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bobs PERMALINK
May 24, 2014
Good analysis. (Way off about India though. China and India were about equal 25 years ago: today China’s economy is 3 times bigger than India’s.)

Ian Welsh PERMALINK*
May 24, 2014
Yes, I know it’s not as powerful. But it’s still a power, and it may yet surge. The US/China showdown is a ways off — remember, the decline of Britain took place over decades even after the 1st war.
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reg T PERMALINK
May 24, 2014
Excellent general overview. I would include the following ,Ian:

1. There is no certainty Japan will continue as a US vassal state, especially as the US weakens geopolitically. If the Japanese are forced to remilitarize, this will put increasing strains on their already weak economy.

2. I’m not sure I agree that the EU is firmly in the US camp. There are signs that Germany ( the major player in the EU ) is resisting US influence. German industry has significant business ties with Russian energy suppliers and the US cannot promise them alternative supplies. The Germans are also suspicious of US intentions given the NSA spying revelations.

3. Iran is poised to become the major regional player in the Middle East. Israel knows this ,which is why they are so desperate to attack them. As US influence wanes, Israel loses its bedrock of support. As US support for Israel declines, I could see a regional encirclement of Israel with Iran and Saudi Arabia applying pressure from either end.

4. I guess what I’m saying is that the US is much weaker than your post suggests. Maybe I’m wrong here. I think America is losing its ability to control global events. This makes the next 10-20 years particularly dangerous.
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John Glover PERMALINK
May 25, 2014
“The Russians are now aligned with the Chinese because of European and American stupidity: Putin and the Russians, for many years, longed to be Europeans and it would have required only a little respect to keep bring them into the Western camp.”

Actually, you could say the same thing about the Chinese.

But the Europeans, particularly European elites, still have it in their heads that they are somehow superior human beings, and that their place in the world is a consequence of this moral superiority. Showing respect to non- Europeans is implicitly questioning this. This they really can’t do.

What’s become increasingly obvious over the last two decades – to me at least – is that respect is shown, it usually is faux respect, being shown with a view to obtaining a material advantage. Ultimately, the country involved learns that they have been duped, and learns never to trust the Europeans/Americans again.
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Celsius 233 PERMALINK
May 26, 2014
In the end, a bankrupt (morally/financially) America is finding it’s out of ammo.
The American leaders have relied on military force/violence/superiority to further its agenda.
There is not a clever or thoughtful way to deal with foreign policy to be found; aggressive policies breed enemies exponentially. Which of course, is obvious to all but the dead.
America’s status as a world leader is no longer a given; and this Russian/China alliance is likely the very real beginning of the end of American hegemony.
That the leaders of America do not recognize their own folly/hubris/impunity, is the surest sign of rot from within.
The sooner the better for the rest of the world…
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Brian M PERMALINK
May 26, 2014
American innovation in what, exactly, AESB? “My company makes an ap that turns my cell phone screen different colors to reflect my mood”.

American innovation seems to be 110% devoted to either enabling the unemployed to sell their services at poverty piecework wages to those with good jobs (the vaunted “sharing economy”) or enabling the owners of capital to further consolidate their control over all distribution and sales (Instead of 100,000 local stores and services….Amazon). I am not sure how the vaunted innovation can support an economy of 300 million people, especially given a population that prides itself on aggressive ignorance and self-destructive behaviors.
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Richard Wright

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Japan and Europe are not the allies I would want to have going forward. We are going to see the planet go to hell while automation replaces most people. The future of man is probably going to be with a significantly lower population as many of us will simply be unable to adapt to the new environment, we are already seeing this in many ways and if it wasnt for welfare and credit being readily available I think we would be seeing a lot more people simply starving without a place in the world. Just as what it means to be poor in 2014 is diffent than what it was in 1914, I hope technological advancement can in some ways neutralize the negative effects of mass unemployment, but I see it being more what it is now, poor people being blamed for soveirgn debt and the safety net cut.

The quality of life for people with a job will be amazing. However, the world stage will be more of a free for all.

Just as many boomers thought the US would have been best off allying with germany against russia, whom they saw as the bigger threat going forward, I think the US should be looking to ally with russia against China now. China was the most advanced society at 1500, and the west got lucky in finding the new world first( there is evidence the chinese got here but couldnt make it back around 1500 ). China will return to the top. Who knows what sort of warfare will come of this, but the US will only be defeated if we are too eager to help our 'allies'(which we are contractualy obligated to do).

We are at the most important time for man. We can achieve so much but it looks like we might destroy each other first. I basically see the world becoming damn near a spitting image of that Elysium movie.
 
88m3

88m3

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fema camps for all

:blessed:




Anti-American sentiments that you're sharing are beyond unrealistic to the point that they are corny.

What will the Canadian superpower be doing during all of this you stupid canuck @Poitier ?
 
#1 pick

#1 pick

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The Middle East is going to be relevant for the next 15 years.
Israel will join Africa again sooner than later.
The US been on the brinks for the last 10 years.
West and Central Africa aren't giving their resources away like they used to and that's the need of Africom(West systematic white supremacy control group).
Europe ain't hunky dory right now.
South America countries are staying out of it.
India will start working to become a power more in the next ten years than the last 50 years especially since Nigeria is doing it now.
Japan isn't too frond of the US either.
The US really need to realize being Israel slaves will cost them everything.
 
gho3st

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#1 pick said:
The Middle East is going to be relevant for the next 15 years.
Israel will join Africa again sooner than later.
The US been on the brinks for the last 10 years.
West and Central Africa aren't giving their resources away like they used to and that's the need of Africom(West systematic white supremacy control group).
Europe ain't hunky dory right now.
South America countries are staying out of it.
India will start working to become a power more in the next ten years than the last 50 years especially since Nigeria is doing it now.
Japan isn't too frond of the US either.
The US really need to realize being Israel slaves will cost them everything.
Click to expand...
:childplease:
 
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