By Herm Edwards
As we head into December, several NFL teams are fighting for the two wild-card spots in the AFC. But the race is really only for that final playoff berth, because even after three straight losses, the 9-3 Kansas City Chiefs are the overwhelming favorites to land the No. 5 seed. And that leaves two teams well-positioned to get the No. 6 seed: the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins.
Even though Baltimore holds the tiebreaker thanks to a 26-23 win over Miami in Week 5, I like the way the Dolphins are playing right now, and I believe they'll make the playoffs on the heels of strong coaching, a good defense and an offense that understands its limitations.
Joe Philbin's coaching job
I can't say enough about the job that Philbin has done to right the ship after the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin incident. That episode extended far beyond football and brought about a national discussion on bullying, a discussion that is still ongoing. As a coach, all that you can control is what goes on in your locker room, and Philbin believed he had a strong enough group of players that could hold up under the media scrutiny and not fall apart. He was right.
The Dolphins don't have a ton of veteran leadership, but that doesn't mean there aren't young leaders like Ryan Tannehill on the team. Philbin stuck to his message and preached accountability. He opened the locker room up for players to speak their mind about the divisive issue by saying, "Everybody is accountable; we talked about honesty, we talked about respect, we talked about accountability. If you're going to put your name on something, those guys are accountable." That clearly struck a chord with the players, who cleared the air, said what they had to say, and were able to move on and try to focus on football.
Philbin kept this team together, despite the fact that the Dolphins were humiliated 38-17 on "Monday Night Football" in Week 4 against the New Orleans Saints, blew a 17-3 halftime lead against New England in Week 8 (during a four-game losing streak), lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8 before beating Miami) and suffered a last-minute defeat to the Carolina Panthers last week. The players trust Philbin and have bought into the belief that they can make the postseason. That's why Philbin will be the coach next season, and he deserves some votes for Coach of the Year, regardless of whether Miami makes the postseason.
A good defense
Miami doesn't have a top-10 defense, but what it does have is an opportunistic 4-3 unit that is thriving because of its ability to create pressure with its front four. Cameron Wake is a dominant defensive end on one side and commands extra attention, while second-year player Olivier Vernon has 4.5 sacks in the past three weeks and 10 overall on the season. He has taken the snaps that No. 3 pick Dion Jordan was supposed to have, although Jordan can still be brought in as a situational pass-rusher. Miami is tied for fourth in the NFL with 37 sacks and is fifth in the NFL with 78 QB hits.
The Dolphins play a mix of man and zone, but that pass rush -- combined with the offseason addition of the versatile Dannell Ellerbe and Brent Grimes -- has allowed Miami to play a lot more man coverage. Ellerbe has the quickness and agility to match up with tight ends down the seam, and I recently ranked Grimes as my No. 7 CB in the NFL. Grimes is outstanding at recognizing route patterns and has tremendous athletic ability and ball skills (four interceptions on the season). Grimes, Dimitri Patterson and Nolan Carroll have held up very well on the outside, giving defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle plenty of leeway to send additional pressure and not fear big plays.
Miami has also been excellent on big downs (third and fourth) and in the red zone. The defense will give up yards (ranked 25th against the run, 9th against the pass) but is 10th in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage, allowing opponents to convert only 35.9 percent of the time. And they are really good in the red zone, allowing TDs on only 47.7 percent of opposing drives (tied for eighth). That's how you win football games.
Understanding limitations on offense
It's not a big secret that Miami doesn't have a good offensive line. It's tough to have a good offensive line when you lose two starters, after all. But Philbin and Mike Sherman have done an excellent job of recognizing their limitations on the offensive side of the ball and playing through them.
Tannehill has been sacked a league-high 45 times, and he's been under constant duress. Sherman has counteracted that by using more three-step drops and quick throws to get the ball out of Tannehill's hands. If the Dolphins want to take a deep shot to Mike Wallace, they are keeping seven men in to block so Tannehill can stay upright. Tannehill has also showed his ability to extend plays with his feet.
One beneficiary of these quick-hitting passes has been Charles Clay, who's been the X factor in this offense. At 6-foot-3 and 255 pounds, Clay has played the role of a move tight end to perfection, and he has stepped up after the injury to Dustin Keller. Clay is big enough to be a run-blocker, but he's a really tough cover in the passing game because of his speed and the precise routes he can run. He had seven catches for 80 yards against the New York Jets on Sunday, and they simply couldn't cover him with a linebacker on option routes when Miami flexed him out wide. Plus, he's great after the catch (259 YAC, which leads the team). Clay has become a tremendous complement to Wallace deep and Brian Hartline on intermediate routes; Hartline leads Miami with 41 first-down conversions.
The Dolphins must make more of an effort to stick with the running game, as they did against the Jets on Sunday. With Daniel Thomas out with an injury, Lamar Miller must pick up the slack. He's a smaller back, but he showed against Gang Green that he can carry the load.
Miami ran the ball 36 times against a good Jets defense and gained only 3.5 yards per carry, but it helped them control the tempo of the game. It was the Dolphins' best offensive performance of the year, and they should feel very good about piling up 453 yards of total offense against that unit. They dominated an elite New York defense.
Can they do it?
With remaining games against Pittsburgh, New England, Buffalo and the Jets (a .479 opposing winning percentage), Miami realistically needs to win three games to make the postseason. The Ravens have a much tougher schedule, with games at Detroit and Cincinnati in addition to home contests against Minnesota and New England (a .574 opposing winning percentage). I picked the Dolphins to win the second wild-card berth before the season, and I still believe they can do it. They've rallied around Philbin and responded to the adversity, and they are doing just enough to win football games.
I don't think they'll win a game in the playoffs with that offensive line in such a shambles, but a playoff berth would be a testament to the job Philbin has done and further cement Tannehill's status as Miami's QB of the future.
