Trump Impeachment Odds Now at 56 Percent | InverseDonald Trump is the President of the United States. But if oddsmakers are right, there’s a good chance that he won’t hold office for that long. There are many reasons Trump could be impeached or resign before his first term ends.
As of the morning of April 3, Trump’s odds of leaving office before his first term were 4/5.
The odds are part of a group of “Donald Trump Specials” offered by the UK betting house Ladbrokes. (Vegas doesn’t let you bet on anything but sports.) It includes bets that he won’t be re-elected in 2020 and that he’ll visit Russia by the end of the year. Now, gambling odds aren’t exactly reliable predictive science — they’re pretty far from it in a lot of cases — but after a tumultuous first few weeks of his presidency when odds went from being even to likely, the odds of Trump’s impeachment fluctuated. Ladbrokes had gotten serious action on Trump’s odds, and in a Ladbrokes post on the change, Jessica Bridge, a spokesperson for Ladbrokes, said:
“The money is showing no signs of slowing down and we’ve been forced to cut Trump’s impeachment odds accordingly. We’ve taken five times the amount of bets on him failing to see out his full term than on him doing so.”
“I think it’s a reaction to continued probes into Russian influence plus the health care bill failure,” Matthew Shaddikk, head of political betting at the Ladbrokes, told Inverse in an email. Shaddikk notes that he thinks Trump’s actual impeachment chances are much, much lower than the odds make them out to be.
These are the odds on when Donald Trump will leave office looked like on February 16.
Ladbrokes briefly took down the “Donald Trump Specials” betting page after months of wagers, and replaced them with a new suite of bets related to the upcoming 2020 election. A small drop-down window on the site’s betslip menu revealed that betting had been suspended. Ladbrokes’ PR Manager Alex Donohue told Inverse that the pause on bets was routine.
They were just suspended as part of routine site maintenance. Rest assured we will be continuing to take bets on Trump impeachment and many other markets for quite some time - it would be bad business for us to shut up shop.
After the original odds went up, Ladbrokes added a new suite of bets. Gamblers could wager on which year Trump will leave office. Options include 2021, which is when he would leave if he loses the 2020 election, and terrifyingly, “2025 or later.”
Ladbrokes isn’t the only other betting houses offering wagers about Trump’s potential early exit. On March 31, other UK betting houses are offering the following odds.
Paddy Power’s offering “a golden shower of Trump Odds” that include 11/10 odds on Trump being impeached, 5/1 odds on his marriage ending before his presidency, 25/1 odds on Trump and Putin to receive a joint Nobel Prize, and 25/1 odds on Mexico directly paying for the wall.
SkyBet is offering 2/1 odds that Trump will cease to be president in 2017, 9/2 odds for 2018, 7/1 odds in 2019, and 16/1 in 2020.
BetVictor offers 11/4 odds Trump will be out of office in 2017, 9/2 odds he’ll be gone in 2018, 7/1 in 2019, and 4/5 odds for 2020 or later.
Coral offers 13/8 odds “Trump will be replaced” in 2021, 7/2 odds in 2017, and 9/2 odds in 2018.
Betfair offers 11/10 odds that Trump will be the next president,. It also offers 8/1 odds Trump will be the next president. (Oprah has 33/1 odds).
Place ya bets if ya feeling froggy about it:trumpmad:
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