Keith Law Mock Draft 3.0 ESPN INSIDER:
MLB Mock Draft 3.0
By Keith Law
ESPN Insider
There hasn't been a ton of change at the top since my mock draft from Friday, but we did see one player -- prep right-hander Phil Bickford -- jump from off of the board into the top 10.
Below is my best projection for the top 33 picks in the draft -- the formal first round, plus the six compensatory picks that teams received for losing free agents who received qualifying offers this offseason. I'll have one more mock draft, to be unveiled Thursday morning, before the MLB draft Thursday evening.
Other recent content: For mock draft 2.0, click here. For my first mock draft, click here. For a complete look at my ranking of the top 100 draft prospects, click here.)
1 Colin MoranPOS: 3BB/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 215School: North Carolina
Analysis: The only change from what I wrote last week is that Kris Bryant is still alive to be this pick, with both Jonathan Gray and Mark Appel still options. I do not believe the Astros will make a final decision until Wednesday or Thursday; they didn't settle on Carlos Correa at No. 1 overall until a few minutes before the actual pick last year.
2 Mark AppelPOS: RHPHT: 6-5WT: 215School: Stanford
Analysis: Appel, Gray, or Kris Bryant here; I do think they'll take an arm, but Bryant is an outside possibility here, because right-handed power like his is hard to come by. Like Houston, the Cubs do not appear to have settled on a specific order of candidates.
3 Kris BryantPOS: 3B/OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 215School: San Diego
Analysis: This also could be Gray, or Moran, or maybe Austin Meadows, although I don't foresee a scenario where they get to Meadows on their preference list. He's been a predraft workout phenom in the past week, though.
4 Jonathan GrayPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 239School: Oklahoma
Analysis: If Appel, Gray, and Bryant go 1-2-3 in some order, this would be Kohl Stewart or Reese McGuire, the latter coming in below slot (allowing them to save money toward future picks).
5 Braden ShipleyPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 190School: Nevada
Analysis: The Indians would love to get Moran or Bryant, but it seems unlikely they'll get Moran and unthinkable that they'd get Bryant. Clint Frazier is the other hot name here; GM Chris Antonetti flew to meet him last week.
6 Austin MeadowsPOS: OFB/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Grayson (Ga.) HS
Analysis: Other names in the mix here are Shipley, Hunter Renfroe, and DJ Peterson.
They'll take Bryant or Moran, while also giving strong consideration to Meadows, Frazier, Stewart, Ryne Stanek and possibly Alex Gonzalez.
7 Ryne StanekPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 190School: Arkansas
Analysis: The Red Sox are still wide open -- Meadows is high on their board (over Frazier), as are Renfroe, Peterson, Gonzalez, and possibly Stewart.
8 Phil BickfordPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 185School: Oaks Christian HS (Westlake Village, Calif.)
Analysis: I'm having a hard time with this one myself. Bickford throws hard, and there's a good chance he'll hit 100 mph at some point in the future, but he has a below-average breaking ball right now. If one of the college right-handers gets here, that would change the pick, but there's a strong industry sentiment as of Sunday night that Bickford -- who is getting a lot of attention after striking out 17 straight batters Saturday -- goes here.
9 Reese McGuirePOS: CB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Kentwood HS (Kent, Wash.)
Analysis: I've also heard them eyeing Peterson, Frazier, and Trey Ball. Because the Pirates have the No. 14 pick as well, they have a fairly large bonus pool and are in good position to do something creative with lefty Sean Manaea, who looked like a top-five pick heading into the year (and will command top-five money), but whose season ended early due to a hip injury.
Note: A compensation pick for failing to sign Mark Appel with No. 8 overall pick in 2012.
10 Trey BallPOS: LHP/OFHT: 6-6WT: 180School: New Castle (Ind.) HS
Analysis: I've only heard Ball, McGuire, and J.P. Crawford, with a slight chance they'd go for Bickford.
11 Dominic SmithPOS: 1BB/T: L/LHT: 6-0WT: 195School: Serra HS (Gardena, Calif.)
Analysis: Mostly hearing Smith and Peterson here, with a little interest in Crawford.
12 DJ PetersonPOS: 3B/1BB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 205School: New Mexico
Analysis: They've honed in on a group that includes Peterson, Renfroe, Smith, Crawford, and Bickford.
13 Clint FrazierPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Loganville (Ga.) HS
Analysis: They seem to be interested in a bit of everything: Frazier (high school bat), Bickford (high school pitcher), Renfroe (college bat), and Gonzalez (college arm).
14 Hunter RenfroePOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 216School: Mississippi State
Analysis: They are just hoping someone they like at No. 9 is still available at 14.
15 Alex GonzalezPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Oral Roberts
Analysis: Still hearing them with Renfroe, Aaron Judge, and now Ian Clarkin. I've also heard them with Aaron Blair with the No. 36 pick in Competitive Balance Round A.
16 Kohl StewartPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 190School: St. Pius X (Houston)
Analysis: Their kind of guy, although it's unclear to me whether Stewart -- who has a QB scholarship from Texas A&M -- is signable here, as I don't know his price tag. If he doesn't go No. 4 or 7, however, he doesn't have a ton of landing spots, despite his enormous talent. Other names I've heard with the Phillies include Devin Williams, Bickford, Clarkin, and another surprise candidate, Austin Wilson.
17 Tim AndersonPOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 180School: East Central CC
Analysis: The team that spent a 2003 first-round pick on Brian Anderson is also on Chris Anderson, Louie Anderson, Laurie Anderson, and Aaron Judge.
18 J.P. CrawfordPOS: SSB/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 175School: Lakewood (Calif.) HS
Analysis: I've also heard them on Tim Anderson, Smith, Jonathan Crawford, and possibly a college bat if the right one gets here.
19 Devin WilliamsPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 172School: Hazelwood (Mo.) West HS
Analysis: Tim Anderson and Travis Demeritte are also possibilities here. The Cardinals have interest in Ian Clarkin as well, but don't think he'll still be there when they pick again at No. 28.
20 Jonathon CrawfordPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Florida
Analysis: Hearing them linked to power arms -- I know you're shocked, settle down -- which could include Williams or Chris Anderson as well.
21 Nick CiuffoPOS: CB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 200School: Lexington (S.C.) HS
Analysis: I've had them with Ciuffo for three straight mocks, mostly because the industry is reasonably convinced he's their guy at this pick.
22 Chris AndersonPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 225School: Jacksonville
Analysis: I had them taking Josh Hart last time around, and that interest is still there, as is the potential to take Alex Balog or Blair at 37.
23 Travis DemerittePOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 195School: Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.)
Analysis: It's mostly high school/JC kids being linked to Texas, including Tim Anderson and Hart as well.
24 Hunter HarveyPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 175School: Bandys HS (Catawba, N.C.)
Analysis: Also hearing prep pitcher Rob Kaminsky and Kyle Serrano here, although I have to think there are some college bats (like Judge or Eric Jagielo) who'd be appealing.
25 Matt KrookPOS: LHPHT: 6-2WT: 190School: St. Ignatius Prep (Hillsborough, Calif.)
Analysis: Also hearing Clarkin in this mix. There's a big popup name here: Florida prep shortstop Christian Arroyo.
26 Billy McKinneyPOS: OFB/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 195School: Plano (Texas) West HS
Analysis: I've also heard them with Cody Reed, Hunter Green, and Bickford -- who no longer has any realistic chance to drop this far and likely would demand a bonus well above the recommended number for this pick.
27 Jon DenneyPOS: CB/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 205School: Yukon (Okla.) HS
Analysis: Also hearing Wil Crowe with them, perhaps for pick No. 38.
28 Ian ClarkinPOS: LHPHT: 6-2WT: 190School: Madison HS (San Diego)
Analysis: Same names as at No. 19, with the hope one of them -- such as Clarkin -- reaches them here.
Note: This pick is compensation for Kyle Lohse signing with the Brewers.
29 Hunter DozierPOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 220School: Stephen F. Austin
Analysis: They're also one of the teams on Cody Reed.
Note: This pick is compensation for B.J. Upton signing with the Braves.
30 Cody ReedPOS: LHPHT: 6-5WT: 220School: Northwest Mississippi CC
Analysis: They could also go with Hunter Green, whom I have going one pick after this.
Note: This pick is compensation for Josh Hamilton signing with the Angels.
31 Hunter GreenPOS: LHPHT: 6-5WT: 220School: Warren East HS (Bowling Green, Ky.)
Analysis: I think some of the names they hoped would get here are going well ahead of them.
Note: This pick is compensation for Michael Bourn signing with the Indians.
32 Eric JagieloPOS: 3BB/T: L/RHT: 6-3WT: 215School: Notre Dame
Analysis: Jagielo could go before this, but I think these back-to-back picks represent his floor.
Note: This pick is compensation for Nick Swisher signing with the Indians.
33 Kyle SerranoPOS: RHPHT: 6-0WT: 185School: Farragut (Tenn.) HS
Analysis: To be honest, the Yankees appear to be on almost everybody, because with three picks in the first round, they need to scout almost everybody. I've linked them to Wilson and Dustin Peterson in the past, both of whom still are possibilities.
Note: This pick is compensation for Rafael Soriano signing with the Nationals.
