Edited on 8/20/15
With SEC Media Days underway, I thought I'd give out my preview for the upcoming season in the GOAT conference. These projections are based on quality and depth of returning starters, projected growth in young players, and the potential for instant impact from the incoming and past recruiting classes.
SEC West Projected Standings:
SEC East Projected Standings:
SEC Championship Game: Tennessee over LSU
Offensive Player of the Year: Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson/Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs (both should be in NYC for the Heisman Trophy presentation)
Defensive Player of the Year: Georgia OLB/DE Lorenzo Carter
Freshmen of the Year: Alabama WR Calvin Ridley
With SEC Media Days underway, I thought I'd give out my preview for the upcoming season in the GOAT conference. These projections are based on quality and depth of returning starters, projected growth in young players, and the potential for instant impact from the incoming and past recruiting classes.
SEC West Projected Standings:
1. LSU (11-1) — Only 3 other teams have had top 10 recruiting classes in each of the last 3 years (Alabama, Ohio State, and Florida State). As a result, this team has as much talent as anyone in the country. They are my pick to win the SEC and represent the conference in the college football playoff. They got NFL talent is all over the field. Arguably the best RB in the country (Leonard Fournette), the best WR corp in the SEC (Travin Dural, Malachi Dupree, DJ Chark, and Tyron Johnson), and the best defensive backfield in the SEC (Tre’Davious White, Jamal Adams, Ed Paris, and Jalen Mills). Sophomore QB Brandon Harris will be a lot better than people expect. This is LSU, so you know they’re set in the trenches. Only loss I see is @ Alabama. I think the Texas A&M game on thanksgiving will decide who wins the SEC West. Because its at home, I give the edge to LSU.
2. Texas A&M (10-2) — Easiest schedule in the SEC West. They get both Alabama and Auburn at home. Toughest road game is @ LSU. They've recruited at an elite level since joining the SEC. I love the firepower on offense. Arguably the best WR corp in the SEC (along with LSU and Tennessee). However, the lack of experienced talent on defense will hurt. I’m not a believer in sophomore QB Kyle Allen but he's good enough because of how stacked with talent the offense is. I think true freshmen QB Kyler Murray takes over for him at the tail end of the season. I got Texas A&M splitting the home matchups with Alabama and Auburn. They'll head into Death Valley on thanksgiving with one loss and a chance to win the SEC West. I think LSU wins that game because they're at home.
3. Alabama (10-2) — Still the most talented team in college football. 5 straight #1 recruiting classes. However, this might be a down year for them. Not as many playmakers on offense as they did in the past. Only Junior RB Derrick Henry sticks out as a top pick in next year's draft. I do see true freshmen WR Calvin Ridley having a monster season next year. This team's weakness is once again the secondary. They have great interior defensive lineman (NT A’Shawn Robinson, DT Jarron Reed, and DE Jonathan Allen are potential 1st and 2nd round NFL picks next year), however, the lack of elite edge rushers doesn't help an already questionable pass defense. This will be a down season for Alabama. They will lose 2 out of these 3 games (@Georgia, @ A&M, or @ Auburn). Based on what happens in the A&M game, I could see them finishing 3rd in the West based on the tie-breaker.
4. Auburn (9-3) — The most overrated team in the SEC this off-season. Most have them winning the conference and making the playoffs. I have them finishing no better than 4th. They'll have the 2nd best QB in the conference (Jeremy Johnson) after Tennessee's Joshua Dobbs. The running game will be as potent as ever thanks to #1 rated JUCO tranfer Jovon Robinson and 5 star sophomore Roc Thomas. #1 rated WR according to Mel Kiper for next year’s draft Duke Williams is a beast. However, they won't reach the lofty expectations many have for them because the defense still has question marks. Its gonna take alot more than Will Muschamp to turn things around. More players like 1st round NFL caliber defensive lineman DE Carl Lawson and DT Montravious Adams) would help. Its gonna take a Cam Newton-esque season from Jeremy Johnson to get them into the SEC title game. Since I don't think Jeremy Johnson is Cam Newton, Auburn will lose 3 out of these 5 games (@ LSU, @ Arkansas, @ A&M, v. Georgia, and v. Alabama).
5. Ole Miss (9-3) — Have arguably 3 of the top 10 picks in next year’s draft on their team (LT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche, and WR Laquon Treadwell). Super talented on defense. Secondary should be better this year even after losing 2 All-American seniors. Question marks at QB, RB, and offensive line. Laquon Treadwell and that defense will carry them to a respectable season but I don't see them challenging for the SEC West crown. They'll lose 3 of these 4 games (@ Alabama, @ Auburn, v. LSU, and v. A&M).
5. Ole Miss (9-3) — Have arguably 3 of the top 10 picks in next year’s draft on their team (LT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche, and WR Laquon Treadwell). Super talented on defense. Secondary should be better this year even after losing 2 All-American seniors. Question marks at QB, RB, and offensive line. Laquon Treadwell and that defense will carry them to a respectable season but I don't see them challenging for the SEC West crown. They'll lose 3 of these 4 games (@ Alabama, @ Auburn, v. LSU, and v. A&M).
6. Arkansas (7-5) — Tennessee and Arkansas have been getting a lot of hype this off-season. It only makes sense that one of them fails to live up to the hype. I think that team will be Arkansas (and not just because I’m a Tennessee fan). They lost a number of great defensive players to the NFL. And it was the defense that carried the team last season (top 10 in the country). Unlike the powerhouse programs in the SEC, they don’t recruit at a high enough level to plug n play new guys. Plus their schedule is tough (@ Tennessee, @ Alabama, @ LSU, and @ Ole Miss). They could lose all 4 games. Plus they play A&M in Arlington. Could be another year of close losses for Arkansas.
7. Miss. State (7-5) — Too many starters lost. DT Chris Jones will be a 1st round pick next year, however, Miss. State does not recruit at a high enough level to withstand such devastating of starters. They’ll struggle to finish above .500 this season after so much success last year.
SEC East Projected Standings:
1. Tennessee (11-1) — After 2 straight top 5 recruiting classes and the emergence of Junior QB Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee now has quality SEC talent all over the field. Dobbs should be 1st or 2nd team All-SEC QB and a potential dark-house Heisman candidate. Sophomore RBs Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara (#2 rated JUCO RB) are as talented as any duo in the SEC. Junior WR Marquez North is a potential 1st round pick in next year’s NFL draft. Offensive line is a weakness for the team; however, Dobbs mobility masks it. On the defensive side, Sophomore DE Derek Barnett and Senior OLB/DE Curt Maggitt form arguably the best pass rushing duo in the SEC. They combined for over 20 sacks last season. Look out for 5 star true freshmen DTs Kahlil McKenzie and Shy Tuttle to be the talk of college football given how much they help Tennessee's defensive line. The secondary is arguably the 3rd best in the SEC after LSU and Florida. Junior CB Cam Sutton should be a 1st round pick next year. The only losses I see is @ Alabama. A trip to the SEC title game and the College Football Playoff are realistic goals for the Vols this season.
2. Georgia (9-3) — Most talented team in the East, however, they have significant question marks. They return only 12 starters. No answers at QB. Still lack talent in the secondary. However, they have arguably the best edge rushers in the SEC. OLB/DE Lorenzo Carter is a beast (better than Myles Garrett IMO). Look for him to have a huge sophomore season. True freshmen DT Trent Thompson should be an immediate impact player. The schedule is tough on Georgia. They draw both Auburn and Alabama from the West. Plus they have to play Tennessee in Knoxville. I think that is what puts Tennessee over the top and ahead of them.
3. Missouri (7-5) — Still not a believer in Missouri. They’re success has been more predicated on coming into the SEC East at the right time (Florida and Tennessee struggling) and also favorable scheduling (haven’t played Alabama, Auburn, or LSU in cross-divisional matchups the last 2 years). Only times they played quality opponents in the SEC title game, they’ve been dominated. This year they come back down to earth, but they’re schedule is still so easy that they’ll find a way to get at least 7 wins.
4. South Carolina (6-6) — Not the team they were 3 years ago. Will rely on a lot of JUCO transfers to carry them. I think the Ole Ball Coach ends up retiring at the end of the season.
5. Kentucky (6-6) — Surprise team in the conference IMO. Return a lot of starters. Play a pretty easy schedule. Get a lot of their most winnable SEC East games at home. I think they achieve their goal and become bowl eligible.
6. Florida (5-7) — This is a rebuilding year for Florida. Lost almost their entire O-line. Will struggle to protect the passer and run the ball. No answers at QB. The season could get really ugly really quick.
7. Vanderbilt (4-8) — Will be lucky to win 4 games.
SEC Championship Game: Tennessee over LSU
Offensive Player of the Year: Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson/Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs (both should be in NYC for the Heisman Trophy presentation)
Defensive Player of the Year: Georgia OLB/DE Lorenzo Carter
Freshmen of the Year: Alabama WR Calvin Ridley
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