What most interests me about the upcoming election is the angles politicians will use to get elected. I have a feeling the TV coverage of the tea party will greatly diminish starting in 2015.
There was a big element of the tea party that was racial which worked when you had a candidate like Barack Obama to go against. That might of worked to strike up fear in a segment of the population but ultimately it didn't work to get a Republican elected. The tea party will be even less effective against Hillary who still commands a solid following among middle/lower class whites.
Lets take a look at some of the candidates:
Hillary Clinton: Obviously the favorite to win out of any party. Her strengths are being attached to one of the most loved Presidents that happened to reside over an expanding economy. On paper, after being the first lady she has all the credentials you could ask for 8 years in the Senate, Secretary of States, and the massive ability to raise money. Her weak areas are she can come off very cold in interviews and her age. She is prone to making off hand comments that really can shoot her in the foot. Recently for example her mention of "being broke". Another potential weakness is her being branded a war hawk on the democrat side.
Prediction: I believe she easily wins the Democrat nomination, but I'm not so sure about pulling out the general election. She still is the favorite, but her approval ratings have started to come back to earth and there might be a sense of Hillary fatigue. She will probably do well with the black vote, but she won't be able to get them out in numbers like Obama did and I doubt even as strong as her husband. She will need to concentrate on women and the latino vote.
Elizabeth Warren: The progressive favorite of the Democrat party. Her strengths are she was able to benefit from the 2008 market meltdown by being put on the Congressional Oversight Panel which handled TARP. She was able to brand herself as the Senator that will fight for the common man and women. It helps her that she is "anti war", pro-choice, pro medical marijuana, etc. Oh and she is also a women. Some of her weak areas are overall brand recognition. Outside of people who follow politics, not that many people know who she is. I bet that is the case to a larger degree in the black and latino communities.
Prediction: Her biggest battle at this point is whether or not she even runs. I'm sure Hillary & Co are putting extreme pressure on her to stay out of the race. You hear rumblings that progressive Democrats will choose her any day over Hillary and I believe it. For one she doesn't come off as a war hawk and she hasn't been in the spotlight as long. The other side of not being in the spotlight is I don't think she could realistically beat Hillary given Hillary's name recognition.
Republicans
Chris Christie: He was the man of the hour for about a year after the whole Sandy incident and various TV guest spots. His strengths are he speaks his mind and doesn't hold his tongue. In this era of political correctness, he is somewhat of a breathe of fresh air even if he still is a politician. He has shown he is willing to work with Democrats in the past and this might help him come off as someone who can get things done. His weak areas are also one of his strengths in that he speaks his mind almost to a fault. He can come off as bullying and not sensitive.His weight is going to be an issue for some voters. He also doesn't carry well as of yet in the South. This is important because being a Republican the south is one of their strongholds. I think the door is open for him to capture more black and latino votes than the average Republican, but he hasn't really shown interest as of yet.
Prediction: 6-8 months ago I would of said he would win the Primary election, but as of now I would say he will come in 2nd. His brand has been somewhat diminished with bridgegate and he just doesn't seem to be building momentum. If Jeb Bush runs, he's going to be a in a real battle for raising money and votes in the big states during the Primary. Unless he has something up his sleeve, I just don't see him winning the Primary.
Jeb Bush: After all the speculation it looks like he's going to run. I didn't think he would have a shot in hell a year ago, but it's funny how the landscape has changed. His strengths are proven leadership skills as Governor of Florida. Maybe even bigger are his commitment to education reform and immigration reform. He will also have an easy time raising money based off his Bush name. One of his weak areas is also his strength in having the Bush name. Will some people automatically right him off because of that? He will also surely be attacked for stripping affirmative action in Florida colleges.
Prediction: I think Bush will win the Primary which will set up a Bush vs Clinton General Election. To be honest out of all the candidates, Bush can show that he has been committed to one area that people actually care about which is education. If he can blend that in with his commitment to immigration reform, he has a fighting chance. Let's be real most politicians are elected based off being liked. Bush can play on peoples emotions by having his wife by his side who happens to be Mexican. Much like the de Blasio campaign, people will be able to relate him because of that. On top of that, immigration reform is all the rage so Bush just happens to be in the right place at the right time. The only question will be if the W years end up preventing him from gaining enough traction to win?
Rand Paul: Oh Rand Paul. He is the tea party populist favorite without a doubt. His strengths are he has improved his visibility and image to a level his father never achieved. Rand Paul is even being seen as a serious contender to the establishment wing of the Republican party. Rand has made the bold move that no other politician has thus far done which is reach out to the black community. His weak areas are he is still being labeled as a tea party candidate which will hurt his ability to connect with independent and minority voters. Despite his attempts to reach out to blacks, his motivations are being questioned.
Prediction: While I think Rand Paul has the most juice/momentum right now, I don't think it will be enough to win the Primary in his field. He is going to be a thorn in the side of both Bush and Christie in the south and midwest. I see him placing 3rd or possibly even 2nd if Christie's campaign just totally falls flat.
Conclusion: Bush vs Clinton. Thoughts?
There was a big element of the tea party that was racial which worked when you had a candidate like Barack Obama to go against. That might of worked to strike up fear in a segment of the population but ultimately it didn't work to get a Republican elected. The tea party will be even less effective against Hillary who still commands a solid following among middle/lower class whites.
Lets take a look at some of the candidates:
Hillary Clinton: Obviously the favorite to win out of any party. Her strengths are being attached to one of the most loved Presidents that happened to reside over an expanding economy. On paper, after being the first lady she has all the credentials you could ask for 8 years in the Senate, Secretary of States, and the massive ability to raise money. Her weak areas are she can come off very cold in interviews and her age. She is prone to making off hand comments that really can shoot her in the foot. Recently for example her mention of "being broke". Another potential weakness is her being branded a war hawk on the democrat side.
Prediction: I believe she easily wins the Democrat nomination, but I'm not so sure about pulling out the general election. She still is the favorite, but her approval ratings have started to come back to earth and there might be a sense of Hillary fatigue. She will probably do well with the black vote, but she won't be able to get them out in numbers like Obama did and I doubt even as strong as her husband. She will need to concentrate on women and the latino vote.
Elizabeth Warren: The progressive favorite of the Democrat party. Her strengths are she was able to benefit from the 2008 market meltdown by being put on the Congressional Oversight Panel which handled TARP. She was able to brand herself as the Senator that will fight for the common man and women. It helps her that she is "anti war", pro-choice, pro medical marijuana, etc. Oh and she is also a women. Some of her weak areas are overall brand recognition. Outside of people who follow politics, not that many people know who she is. I bet that is the case to a larger degree in the black and latino communities.
Prediction: Her biggest battle at this point is whether or not she even runs. I'm sure Hillary & Co are putting extreme pressure on her to stay out of the race. You hear rumblings that progressive Democrats will choose her any day over Hillary and I believe it. For one she doesn't come off as a war hawk and she hasn't been in the spotlight as long. The other side of not being in the spotlight is I don't think she could realistically beat Hillary given Hillary's name recognition.
Republicans
Chris Christie: He was the man of the hour for about a year after the whole Sandy incident and various TV guest spots. His strengths are he speaks his mind and doesn't hold his tongue. In this era of political correctness, he is somewhat of a breathe of fresh air even if he still is a politician. He has shown he is willing to work with Democrats in the past and this might help him come off as someone who can get things done. His weak areas are also one of his strengths in that he speaks his mind almost to a fault. He can come off as bullying and not sensitive.His weight is going to be an issue for some voters. He also doesn't carry well as of yet in the South. This is important because being a Republican the south is one of their strongholds. I think the door is open for him to capture more black and latino votes than the average Republican, but he hasn't really shown interest as of yet.
Prediction: 6-8 months ago I would of said he would win the Primary election, but as of now I would say he will come in 2nd. His brand has been somewhat diminished with bridgegate and he just doesn't seem to be building momentum. If Jeb Bush runs, he's going to be a in a real battle for raising money and votes in the big states during the Primary. Unless he has something up his sleeve, I just don't see him winning the Primary.
Jeb Bush: After all the speculation it looks like he's going to run. I didn't think he would have a shot in hell a year ago, but it's funny how the landscape has changed. His strengths are proven leadership skills as Governor of Florida. Maybe even bigger are his commitment to education reform and immigration reform. He will also have an easy time raising money based off his Bush name. One of his weak areas is also his strength in having the Bush name. Will some people automatically right him off because of that? He will also surely be attacked for stripping affirmative action in Florida colleges.
Prediction: I think Bush will win the Primary which will set up a Bush vs Clinton General Election. To be honest out of all the candidates, Bush can show that he has been committed to one area that people actually care about which is education. If he can blend that in with his commitment to immigration reform, he has a fighting chance. Let's be real most politicians are elected based off being liked. Bush can play on peoples emotions by having his wife by his side who happens to be Mexican. Much like the de Blasio campaign, people will be able to relate him because of that. On top of that, immigration reform is all the rage so Bush just happens to be in the right place at the right time. The only question will be if the W years end up preventing him from gaining enough traction to win?
Rand Paul: Oh Rand Paul. He is the tea party populist favorite without a doubt. His strengths are he has improved his visibility and image to a level his father never achieved. Rand Paul is even being seen as a serious contender to the establishment wing of the Republican party. Rand has made the bold move that no other politician has thus far done which is reach out to the black community. His weak areas are he is still being labeled as a tea party candidate which will hurt his ability to connect with independent and minority voters. Despite his attempts to reach out to blacks, his motivations are being questioned.
Prediction: While I think Rand Paul has the most juice/momentum right now, I don't think it will be enough to win the Primary in his field. He is going to be a thorn in the side of both Bush and Christie in the south and midwest. I see him placing 3rd or possibly even 2nd if Christie's campaign just totally falls flat.
Conclusion: Bush vs Clinton. Thoughts?
I'd say Hillary right now.
