THE Syrian war often seems like a big confusing mess but one factor that is not often mentioned could be the key to unlocking the conflict.
Some experts have pointed out that many of the key players have one thing in common: a billion-dollar gas pipeline.
Factor in this detail and suddenly the war begins to make more sense, here’s how it works:
IT’S THE GAS, STUPID
Many have questioned why Russia became involved in the Syrian war but often overlook the fight over natural gas.
As Harvard Professor Mitchell A Orenstein and George Romer wrote last month in
Foreign Affairs, Russia currently supplies Europe with a quarter of the gas it uses for heating, cooking, fuel and other activities.
In fact 80 per cent of the gas that Russian state-controlled company Gazprom produces is sold to Europe, so maintaining this crucial market is very important.
But Europe doesn’t like being so reliant on Russia for fuel and has been trying to reduce its dependence. It’s a move that is supported by the United States as it would weaken Russian influence over Europe.
This has not gone down well with Russia, which uses its power over gas as political leverage and has a
history of cutting off supply to countries during conflicts. It has even gone
to war in Georgia and Ukraine to disrupt plans to export gas from other parts of the Middle East.
As David Dalton, the editor of the Economist Intelligence Unit, told
The New York Times: “Russia has always used gas as an instrument of influence. The more you owe Gazprom, the more they think they can turn the screws.”
Much of Russia’s power comes from established pipelines used to transport gas to Europe cheaply. But other countries are now trying to get around Russia and provide new sources of gas to Europe.
Last year US President Barack Obama spoke openly about the need for Europe to reduce its reliance on Russian gas following the conflict in Ukraine.
The US also wants to use its own natural gas supply, recently developed through fracking, to undercut Russian supply. But it will be years before the US will be in a position to ship this overseas.
The US is not the only country trying to outmanoeuvre Russia, and this is where the role of Syria becomes more important.
TWO NEW PIPELINES
Before the civil war, two competing pipelines put forward by Qatar and Iran aimed to transport gas to Europe through Syria.
Qatar’s plans were first put forward in 2009 and involved building a pipeline from the Persian Gulf via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey.
The gas field located 3000 metres below the floor of the Persian Gulf is the largest natural gas field in the world. Qatar owns about two-thirds of the resource but can’t capitalise on it fully because it relies on tankers to deliver it to other countries and this makes its gas more expensive than Russia’s.
It was hoped the pipeline would provide cheaper access to Europe but Syrian President Bashar al Assad refused to give permission for the pipeline to go through his territory. Some believe Russia pressured him to reject the pipeline to safeguard its own business.
........nasty muthafukka
