LeBron, Hakeem, Jordan rank among conference finals top 10
LeBron James had an incredible performance against the Pacers on Thursday night, pouring in 30 points to go with eight rebounds and six assists, including a dominant stretch during the third quarter in which his 16 points gave Miami a stranglehold on the game and the series. For most players, that would have been the game of a lifetime, to perform at that high of a level on such a big stage. But for James, it was pretty much par for the course; in fact, it wouldn't have even cracked his top 10 greatest conference finals performances.
The numbers support it; last night's showing ranked 11th in James' pantheon of conference finals games. I ran the calculations on every conference finals performance since 1986, the first year for which Basketball-Reference.com has complete box scores. For each player, I computed Alternate Win Score (AWS), a linear-weights formula that multiple studies have found to be the best of its kind in terms of predicting future team performance. I also made adjustments for the quality of the opponent, location of the game and team defensive performance that isn't captured by the box score, and I weighted everything by championship leverage index to account for the game's level of "clutchness."
What follows are the results of that study -- the 10 best conference finals performers of the past 28 seasons, according to AWS per game (minimum 10 conference finals games played).
Was James' performance Thursday good enough to put his career average over the top?
10. Kobe Bryant
Adjusted AWS/game: 10.7
Conference finals stats: 45 GP | 26.8 PPG | 56.4 TS% | 5.4 RPG | 5.3 APG | 2.1 St+Bk/G
Bryant
Just Derek Fisher, Shaquille O'Neal, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman, Rasheed Wallace and Robert Horry have played more conference finals games than Bryant since 1986 (Michael Jordan is tied with Kobe at 45). And just Fisher, Horry, Pippen, Jordan and Rodman can beat Bryant's 28 wins in that span.
Signature performance: Bryant tallied 30 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists at Sacramento in Game 7 of the 2002 Western Conference finals (4.8 leverage index).
9. Earvin "Magic" Johnson
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.0
Conference finals stats: 26 GP | 20.3 PPG | 59.4 TS% | 7.1 RPG | 13.6 APG | 1.9 St+Bk/G
Johnson
Sadly, Johnson's entire conference finals career isn't in this data set, but it still manages to capture four successful conference final runs for his Lakers, spurred by phenomenal passing, offensive efficiency and all-around greatness.
Signature performance: Johnson put up 24 points, 11 assists and 9 rebounds versus Dallas in Game 7 of the 1988 Western Conference finals (3.6 leverage index).
8. Dirk Nowitzki
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.5
Conference finals stats: 14 GP | 28.9 PPG | 61.7 TS% | 10.1 RPG | 2.9 APG | 1.8 St+Bk/G
Nowitzki
Nowitzki's Mavericks somehow have made just three conference final appearances during his career, thanks to a Western Conference gauntlet that almost always included at least one of the Lakers, San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns. Still, Nowitzki did his part in those games, averaging nearly 30 points and 10 rebounds with incredible efficiency, a big reason why the Mavs prevailed in two of those three series and took the eventual champion Spurs to six games in the other.
Signature performance: Nowitzki posted 50 points and 12 rebounds versus Phoenix in Game 5 of the 2006 Western Conference finals (2.4 leverage index).
7. Charles Barkley
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.9
Conference finals stats: 13 GP | 21.2 PPG | 57.7 TS% | 12.5 RPG | 3.9 APG | 1.9 St+Bk/G
Barkley
Sir Charles played in just two conference final series in this data set (which is missing the 76ers' 1985 playoff run), and was hardly dominant in the Rockets' 1997 loss to Utah. But his performance against Seattle in 1993 -- when he averaged 25.6 points and 13.9 rebounds, with a 58.1 percent true shooting mark, including 44 points and 24 boards in Game 7 -- was so outstanding that it pretty much single-handedly propelled him to the seventh slot on this list.
Signature performance: Barkley put up 44 points and 24 rebounds versus Seattle in Game 7 of the 1993 Western Conference finals (4.1 leverage index).
6. Larry Bird
Adjusted AWS/game: 12.3
Conference finals stats: 17 GP | 24.1 PPG | 54.8 TS% | 10.8 RPG | 7.2 APG | 2.6 St+Bk/G
Bird
Like Johnson, Bird's complete conference finals résumé is not included in this study's data set. However, Bird still did enough statistically in his last three appearances (1986, 1987 and 1988) to warrant inclusion, most notably his destruction of the Detroit Pistons (27.1 PPG/10.4 RPG/7.6 APG) in the 1987 Eastern Conference finals.
Signature performance: Bird posted 37 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists versus Detroit in Game 7 of the 1987 Eastern Conference finals (4.7 leverage index).
5. Dwight Howard
Adjusted AWS/game: 12.6
Conference finals stats: 12 GP | 23.8 PPG | 63.6 TS% | 11.9 RPG | 1.8 APG | 3.0 St+Bk/G
Howard
Surprised to see Howard rank this high? Don't be. For starters, his 2009 performance against James and the Cavaliers ought to be the stuff of legend. Against the NBA's third-best defense, Howard averaged 25.8 points and 13 boards on 65 percent shooting, including posting 40 points and 14 rebounds in the clinching game. A year later, Howard's Magic were upset by Boston, but he still averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game on 56.8 percent shooting.
Signature performance: Howard threw down 40 points and 14 rebounds versus Cleveland in Game 6 of the 2009 Eastern Conference finals (3.2 leverage index).
4. Kevin Durant
Adjusted AWS/game: 12.7
Conference finals stats: 11 GP | 28.8 PPG | 60.9 TS% | 8.4 RPG | 4.7 APG | 2.9 St+Bk/G
Durant
We're just two conference finals berths into Durant's career, and the numbers he's produced have been staggering. Despite losing to the Mavericks in 2011, Durant averaged 28 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, a prelude to the show he would put on a season later. Last season, as the Thunder stormed back to win four straight against the Spurs, Durant averaged 29.5 points per game on a 66.2 true shooting percentage and had 7.5 rebounds per contest.
Signature performance: Durant put up 34 points, 14 rebounds and 5 assists versus San Antonio in Game 6 of the 2012 Western Conference finals (2.9 leverage index).
3. Michael Jordan
Adjusted AWS/game: 12.7
Conference finals stats: 45 GP | 31.0 PPG | 54.8 TS% | 6.3 RPG | 5.6 APG | 2.9 St+Bk/G
Jordan
Jordan gets far more attention (and deservedly so) for his NBA Finals résumé, but he was no slouch in the conference finals, either. After dropping both the 1989 and 1990 series to Detroit (despite 31 PPG from Jordan), MJ would never again lose a conference finals series -- no surprise, given the positive correlation between the leverage of the game and Jordan's AWS (meaning that on average, his performance actually improved as the pressure of the game increased).
Signature performance: Jordan tallied 28 points, nine rebounds and eight assists versus Indiana in Game 7 of the 1998 Eastern Conference finals (4.4 leverage index).
2. Hakeem Olajuwon
Adjusted AWS/game: 14.6
Conference finals stats: 22 GP | 30.4 PPG | 59.5 TS% | 10.8 RPG | 3.9 APG | 6 St+Bk/G
Olajuwon
Generally speaking, when a player's first YouTube search result is a video devoted to him humiliating his biggest rival in the conference finals, he's going to earn a spot on this list. Everyone remembers Olajuwon obliterating David Robinson in that 1995 West final (to the tune of 35.3 PPG on 56 percent shooting, and 12.5 RPG and 5.0 APG for good measure), but Olajuwon also crushed Karl Malone and the Jazz a season earlier, was dominant in the Rockets' upset of the Lakers in 1986 and even had a good showing (27.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG) as a 34-year-old in Houston's 1997 Western Conference finals loss to Utah. In short, Olajuwon always brought his A-game to the conference finals.
Signature performance:Olajuwon put up 39 points, 17 rebounds and 5 blocks versus San Antonio in Game 6 of the 1995 Western Conference finals (2.7 leverage index).
1. LeBron James
Adjusted AWS/game: 14.9
Conference finals stats: 29 GP | 30.7 PPG | 57.8 TS% | 8.9 RPG | 6.4 APG | 2.9 St+Bk/G
James
As hard as it is to believe that anyone could play better in the conference finals than Olajuwon, we're actually witnessing the greatest conference finals player of the past three decades in James. Break it down, and it's not hard to see why: In 2007, James famously decimated the Pistons. In 2009, he had one of the all-time great individual performances in a series loss to the Magic (38.5 PPG/8.3 RPG/8 APG). In 2011, his hot shooting led the Heat over the Bulls. Last season, he absolutely torched the Celtics (38 PPG) in Miami's do-or-die Game 6 and Game 7. And so far this season, he's averaging 28 points, 7 reboounds and 5 assists on 52 percent shooting, with a game winner in the opener and his aforementioned performance in Thursday's huge Game 5. While James has had his share of clutch failings over the years, they most certainly have not come at this particular stage of the playoffs, where he's been nothing less than lights out.
Signature performance: King James posted 48 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists at Detroit in Game 5 of the 2007 Eastern Conference finals (3.1 leverage index).
at another made up espn stat. Per/QBR/now this garbage
