Betting Heavy Favorites Strategy

[lamont614]

I started yesterday with 25 dollars and ended with 45


I know it’s not a lot but my strategy was to do -200

Bet 5 get 2.50 kind of a slow growth every bet hit going to try to do this everyday


I did 6 bets of 5 dollars each -200 easy odds

Usually I would do +100 couldn’t even hit those

So I’m going for something easier


Just trying to grow my money by 10 dollars every day


10 x 30 =300

 

[lamont614]

I did this with nba prop bets

Mostly 4 legs

Put a lot off -500 together to get to -200

 

[Dorian Breh]

This can be a strong strategy from a microeconomic / portfolio management perspective.

Parley odds are not calculated using the proper probabilistic math. Betting parleys is a mathematically flawed strategy that feels good psychologically.

Theoretically, the key to betting favorites is identifying contrarian narratives. Nowadays, oddsmakers are not in the business of setting even lines. They are often making an implicit bet themselves by placing the line on one or the other side of "fair" to attract and punish emotional/uninformed voters.

I think oftentimes the best favorite lines will be where the underdog has significant narrative/emotional momentum. Oddsmakers know that even if the fair line is -500, emotional bettors will still place at -350. So they can defray their risk by putting the odds there.

This works much better on "retail" focused books, eg. the apps, as opposed to the kind of books that see more "sharp" money.

In fact, identifying places where the same bet has the widest range of odds between books is the easiest way to find a good opportunity.

 

[lamont614]

“This can be a strong strategy from a microeconomic / portfolio management perspective.”

 

[Lil Bape the PostGod]

It works…but once you get too greedy and start doing 19 leg parlays where nikkas like SGA get 10+ points …it hurts your soul even more when he turns his ankle in the 1st quarter with 7 points

 

[Apprentice]

Not to be a dh and not to be negative either but I don’t think it’s a good strategy

You’re greatly underestimating how often “upsets” happen and how often the line makers are off on their reading of things

I’ve seen -1600 heavy favorites lose

 

[lamont614]

Not to be a dh and not to be negative either but I don’t think it’s a good strategy

You’re greatly underestimating how often “upsets” happen and how often the line makers are off on their reading of things

I’ve seen -1600 heavy favorites lose

It’s mostly prop bets but I’m on day 2 I’ll keep you guys updated

 

[lamont614]

It works…but once you get too greedy and start doing 19 leg parlays where nikkas like SGA get 10+ points …it hurts your soul even more when he turns his ankle in the 1st quarter with 7 points

lol I’m not doing 19 legs for -200



not going to be greedy just going to ride the wave

 

[lamont614]

San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers


2:10PM ET


Harrison Barnes Over 9.5


HARRISON BARNES - ALT PTS + REB


Chris Paul Over 10.5


CHRIS PAUL - ALT PTS + AST


Devin Vassell Over 14.5


DEVIN VASSELL - ALT PTS + REB



This is -182.

Put 5 on it pays 7.76

 

[Dorian Breh]

San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers


2:10PM ET


Harrison Barnes Over 9.5


HARRISON BARNES - ALT PTS + REB


Chris Paul Over 10.5


CHRIS PAUL - ALT PTS + AST


Devin Vassell Over 14.5


DEVIN VASSELL - ALT PTS + REB



This is -182.

Put 5 on it pays 7.76

What are the individual odds on these?

 

[Dorian Breh]

“This can be a strong strategy from a microeconomic / portfolio management perspective.”

portfolio management is about hedging your bets. sort of like a reverse parley where whatever happens you should at least come out with 80% or 90%.

An example might be like betting the favorite. But then as a separate bet you take the points over for the star on the underdog. And then you take the under as a separate bet. And you decide your amount for each bet so they all work together based on your confidence and your payout.

Your logic is that the Favorite should win. But if they don't win, it will be because the Star on the Underdog scored a lot of points. Or maybe its because the Underdog succeeded into turning it into a defensive battle and won.

So you put more on the moneyline, but then you put a little on the prop for the star and a little on the under.

Its feasible that you lose on each bet where someone other than the star on the underdog goes crazy and wins for them. But its most likely that you hit on at least 2 of 3 bets, which if the portfolio is balanced correctly means you should make money regardless. If you hit on all three then you are doing great. And if you only hit one then net-net you only lost max ~50% of your wager in this hypothetical.

 

[lamont614]

What are the individual odds on these?

It won’t let me see I just did a live bet for you tho




Devin Vassell


TO SCORE 15+ POINTS


-480


Pascal Siakam


TO SCORE 15+ POINTS

-9000


Victor Wembanyama


TO SCORE 20+ POINTS

-1450
Chris Paul


TO RECORD 8+ ASSISTS


-1000



Put them all together

-200

 

[lamont614]

Going lose because of Chris Paul I needed 8 assist




I doubt he get back in the game