The NFL combine is not the be-all, end-all scouting event some make it out to be, but it is an essential part of the draft process. Not only do you gain physical and medical insights into the top prospects, but the event also provides a forum to trade notes with other coaches and executives and to start throwing out some ideas for the season ahead.
After spending the past week stationed in Indianapolis for the entirety of the event, here are some of my key takeaways, including standout prospects, some thoughts on a new personnel trend and my position on Manti Te'o as the draft draws ever closer.
Standout Prospects
You'll probably detect a theme throughout the players I highlight below: They're specifically suited to make a big impact on the modern, pass-centric NFL. The players below highlight the athletic traits that I want in a high draft pick -- and exhibited them in Indianapolis.
Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
I was really impressed by his length (his arms measured 33 7/8 inches) and -- most importantly -- speed. At 6-foot-6, 248 pounds he recorded a 4.60 40 time. You don't see that combination too often. He's scheme versatile: athletic enough to play OLB in a 3-4, plenty big enough to play DE in 4-3 as an outside rusher. The tape I've seen on him shows his ability to bore past the blocker, change direction and use his exceptional length to his advantage. Those long arms, and his height, give him the ability to play faster than even his impressive time in the 40 suggests, as an extended arm will allow him to grasp or bother the offensive tackle and the QB before the rest of his body arrives. That's an incredible skill set. Jordan has all the makings of a high first-round pick.
Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Milliner was generally considered to be an outstanding corner coming into the combine. His performance there just proved it. Coached by Nick Saban, you know he is technically sound in his mechanics (despite some concerns with his backpedal), and he has exhibited a great understanding of the game. He plays big and tough, but to run that fast (4.37 40 time) and to show as much burst and recovery speed as he has on film, he is more than qualified to be a top-level starter in the NFL. Versatile scheme wise, he can handle the responsibilities any way you want to deploy him.
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
Ansah is an outstanding, gifted, physical specimen whose play improved as season went on. It's hard to believe he only made it onto field due to injuries ahead of him. He had what some would call an average week at the Senior Bowl then came in the ballgame and lit it up. He has a real football temperament. He's in the Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis range in terms of his 40 and what makes it more impressive is that he's a big man (6-5 with 35 1/8-inch arms). He lacks football instincts because he simply hasn't played a lot, and his technique is raw, but you don't find players with those kinds of gifts rushing the passer that often. His body of work is limited, but those physical qualities he showed off in Indy and what he has shown on film makes me think someone will take a chance on him in the first round. While offense in the NFL is dictated by strategy and dictating action, defense is defined by reaction and athleticism pays big dividends on that side of the ball. Ansah has plenty of athleticism, and the physical gifts to match.
Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
He did not have the kind of season or receive the notoriety of guys like Milliner or Jordan, but size (6-3, 255), speed (4.6 40 time) and his 10-yard split (I had him at 1.67) is arresting. Again, I'd put him in the Freeney and Mathis category -- when comparing test numbers. (And I'm using my former players as benchmarks because I know what they provided at the NFL level). Again, defense is a reaction game that requires athletic gifts to play. Lemonier demonstrated those at highest level of college football in the SEC. I see a lot of upside for this young man. Based on the opinions of the NFL evaluators I talked to at the combine, his draft stock improved markedly.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
Like Milliner, Eifert performed as advertised. Most felt he was best receiving TE in this class and he demonstrated that capability. His weight (250 pounds) is not going to make him a devastating blocker, nor did he show that on the tape. But his speed (4.68 40), athleticism (6.92 seconds in the cone drill) and excellent hands are very appealing. He plays in space, overpowers defensive backs and wins jump balls (35.5-inch vertical). In today's game, with the receiving TE more prevalent and integral to the passing game, he fills the bill. He's another first-round target.
Tamping down Te'o hoopla
Let me put this to rest. Despite all of the commentary coming from those outside the league following Manti Te'o's combine performance, among those inside the game that I've spoken to, no one has soured on him significantly.
[+] Enlarge
Brian Spurlock/USA TODAY Sports
Manti Te'o's 40 time wasn't stellar, but it didn't torpedo his draft stock.
Teams understand he's been under incredible pressure and has been for the past month after allegedly becoming the victim of a hoax. Step back away from the story and think about how players perform for a second. Coaches and GMs are constantly preaching about eliminating distractions. There's a reason for that. In order to perform well as an athlete you need to be single minded, focused on the job at hand, right down to the minute details. If that focus is shattered, if you're distracted, you do not perform as well. In an environment like the combine, where inches and tenths of second are scrutinized, details matter.
Inside the game, all of us rely on tape, not on the combine as be-all end-all. Sometimes we get caught up in the event and the excitement and make more of the combine than those evaluating these prospects. To them, the game film shows you what kind of football player he is.
Absent the 40 time, Te'o's tests actually solidified what most thought about him. He is instinctive, tough, a good tackler and more quick than fast. Everyone is looking forward to his 40 in South Bend on March 26, and that will be the dispositive piece in the puzzle relative to speed.
The fluctuations in his draft stock I've been hearing about don't make much sense to me. The notion that a player's draft stock can change in a day, or after a single drill, is as much of a hoax as the one Te'o's been caught up in.
My feeling -- one shared by many of my colleagues in the league -- is that when all is said and done, he's in the lower quarter of the first round, maybe the top of second depending on his final 40 time. If he drops down in that range, however, he'll provide great value.
Personnel trend in the making
Last season I thought the offensive line play was lacking, on average, across the league. Part of that, I believe, has been the rapid evolution of the league's pass rushers in terms of athleticism. As pass rushers, have gotten taller, longer and faster, the offensive tackles haven't been able to kept pace. Maybe that's starting to change, and it's because we're looking for different kinds of traits form those lineman.
When I look at 40 times for the offensive linemen who participated in Indy, they are off-the-chart fast. Over the last five combines, the average 40 time for the o-line -- as a group -- has been 5.33 seconds. This season, 35 of the 48 linemen matched or beat that average. To the best of my recollection, we've never seen 40 times from offensive linemen like that.
To a large degree, I think that improvement is reflective of the prevalence of spread formations at the college level. As more programs adopt that scheme, they're using more athletic players at offensive tackle. We can already see the trend. It's starting at college and is now spreading to our league.
To cite one particular example, Eric Fisher of Central Michigan was outstanding athletically. His 5.05 40 was outstanding, and his 4.44 shuttle time was just 4 one-hundreths slower than Florida State DE Bjoern Werner. Now, to paraphrase Bill Cowher, if they played football in shorts and t-shirts we'd all pay more attention to the combine. You still have to play football. In terms of the combine though, Fisher stood out .
Attacking the Zone Read
Based on my conversations with a variety of coaches in Indy, everyone is working on trying to solve the zone read we saw come to prominence with young QBs like Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick.
[+] Enlarge
Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY Sports
The NFL's top strategic minds are developing theories on how to stop Colin Kaepernick and the zone read right now.
Right now, coaches and coordinators are testing and working on various theories. They've identified the fact that different teams run it different ways. For example, Washington's offense is more like old time Veer because there's a pitchman on occasion. Other teams run it without a pitchman, which impacts the assignment of defensive personnel to different offensive components. Drawing those distinctions though is just the start. Then you need to come up with a scheme to stop it.
It's a work in progress but this is the time of year when every team is doing its research.
Doctors note
The Star Lotulelei issue (he did not participate due to the discovery of a heart condition) reinforced to me the value of the combine absent all the hoopla. Every year in my memory, the doctors on site have uncovered -- through their diligence and dedication -- a player or players who have serious, possibly career-ending or even life-threatening conditions that were previously undiagnosed.
Were it not for an echocardiogram pilot project by Dr. Lon Castle of the Cleveland clinic, this might not have been discovered. The extra mile that the NFL's doctors go to for the players is consistent and constant. There's been some criticism of them as a group in recent times and I believe it's completely unfounded. The want to do the best for the players and this underscores that.
Hopefully this proves to be a minor episode for Lotuleilei and he can come back and play. Remember, he did play a full season with this condition. But that this condition was found at all points out justification for the combine. It's not about stories in the papers, it's about getting appropriate data on players.
Dee Milliner has really shot up the boards crazy a CB could even be the first pick since Chiefs got a QB and a pretty good LT already
