It's difficult to imagine them releasing the world's most famous arms dealer in exchange for a mid-level celebrity caught up on the most minor possible drug charge. Especially since it basically would set the standard for Russia to imprison any American they wanted whenever they needed another Russian crook released.
I imagine it's going to be a long-ass waiting game. US State Department is going to work for her release via other means, then will offer some far less-significant Russian up in a prisoner swap. Putin will hold out for the Merchant of Death. I don't see either side blinking.
Maybe Biden would move earlier for political considerations....but if Biden releases a war criminal in order to gain the freedom of a WNBA star most Americans don't even know anything about, does that even help him politically? It might just be played as him getting worked by Putin.
I think her best bet is to get released as a minor piece of a larger deal, like a pullback of US sanctions or some shyt.
I don’t see her coming home anytime soon, I’m hoping I’m wrong though.