Will they take over the whole country if the Americans withdraw though? Or will it revert to contested pockets of rule?
What of this negotiation process?
I mean...if we're talking about a complete unconditional "wash our hands of this shyt" withdrawal, then the Taliban will be unleashed, but even then....no... they'll contest parts of the north (Kunduz) and west (Farah/Nimroz), but their power base has and always will be the south, and the east to a lesser extent. Kabul would be an absolute wildcard.
You'd think there would be an orderly transition...but this is the Americans we're dealing with...who have managed to consistently make the worst decisions at the worst times throughout this entire conflict.
The negotiation process is nothing much substantively so far, but at least theyre talking and putting proposals on the table, which of course shouldve been done 17 years ago
Taliban want all sanctions lifted and prisoners released before they dip their feet too deep in the negotiation pool...call it a good faith gesture
Americans want a permanent cease fire, or at least for an indeterminate period of time...Taliban wont do that, unless an American withdrawal is presented, which the Americans wont do without a cease fire
One thing both the Americans and the Taliban seem to agree on is the need to postpone the upcoming presidential elections, scheduled for April 2019....Taliban are pushing for an interim govt in the meantime, headed by a neutral party
This is one giant fukking song and dance, and the only thing I can say with surety is the Americans are gonna fukk it up
But...if there is any type of agreement it would look roughly like this:
1-Amending of constitution...no detailed proposals from the Taliban on what this would entail, but we can safely assume, the end result is a much more "Islamicized" governing document
2-Socio-political changes....from the educational curriculum to the media...the Taliban will push a strong socially conservative agenda
3-Integration of some Taliban into the armed forces...I assume a re-organization of the military would also need to happen
4-Territorial concessions...not anything "official" of course (the Govt wouldnt want to secede land, and such a move would be counter to the Talibans national agenda) but a more unofficial one...Taliban can roam/preach/mobilize freely in areas where they have support
5-Recognition of the Taliban as some kind of political entity (political party, movement, religious organization etc)
6-Giving up power....probably a restructuring of the executive branch, ministries and senior positions given to the Taliban
7-Release of all prisoners
8-Lifting of all sanctions
9-Severing of all ties between Taliban and international jihadists...this is the one that I see as being one of the most problematic conditions...