@Skooby
Hey bro, can we get this new Football Outsiders' study?
Projecting booms, busts among top QB prospects
Projecting booms, busts among top QB prospects
Draft the wrong quarterback. Fire the general manager. Draft the wrong quarterback. Fire the general manager. The
Cleveland Browns have been stuck in that cycle since returning to the league as an expansion team in 1999. During that time, the Browns have drafted eight quarterbacks, four in the first round. They have also changed general managers nine times over that stretch, more than any other team. Whether Cleveland's latest GM, Sashi Brown, avoids the early exits of his predecessors depends on him succeeding where the others failed. His other moves might not matter if the Browns yet again choose the wrong quarterback.
Fortunately,
Football Outsiders' Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) projection system is here to help. If it had been around for all the previous drafts since 1999, it would have told the Browns to stay away from Tim Couch,
Johnny Manziel and their other first-round flops. And it has a clear preference for the player the Browns should pick at No. 2 in this year's draft.
To come up with NFL projections for this year's top quarterback prospects, QBASE looks at college performance, experience and expected draft position. The last of these is included to account for the scouting information that college stats miss. To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's passing efficiency in years 3-5 of his career, according to our measure
Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). Fifty-thousand simulations then produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect.
QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long résumé of college success, according to the statistics. Those stats include completion percentage, yards per attempt and team passing efficiency. Most importantly, all those stats are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face, as well as the quality of his offensive teammates.
The projections may seem pretty pessimistic, but remember that the Browns' experience with drafting quarterbacks is just a particularly extreme case of a more general condition: most prospects fail. This year, QBASE only projects one quarterback with a good possibility of succeeding in the NFL, and it's not the signal-caller most mock drafts have going to Cleveland.
QBASE Projections
Carson Wentz, North Dakota State Bison
Projecting Wentz's Future
Mean Projection, Years 3-5: 274 DYAR
Bust (< 500) 61.9%
Adequate Starter
(500-1499) 24.3%
Upper Tier (1500-2500) 10.0%
Elite (>2500) 3.8%
Projecting college quarterbacks to the NFL is inexact enough, even without adding the complication of Wentz playing a college schedule built around small schools. Here, we are presenting our projection for Wentz that makes the most generous assumptions for the quality of opposing defenses and the quality of his teammates. The projection essentially takes Wentz's overall situation at North Dakota State -- which includes some good surrounding talent that helped win the school a fifth consecutive FCS national title -- and calls it relatively, but not extremely, favorable.
In fact, Wentz's projection is driven mostly by his mediocre raw stats rather than the opponent and teammate adjustments. His statistical profile (as a senior, 62.5 completion percentage, 7.9 yards per attempt, 17 touchdowns, 5 interceptions) puts him with other highly drafted quarterbacks who struggled in the NFL. Here are Wentz and the quarterbacks since 1996 with the most similar QBASE projections.
QBASE Projections Similar To Carson Wentz Since 1996
Player Projected DYAR
Akili Smith 325
Matt Schaub 312
Joey Harrington 309
EJ Manuel 275
Carson Wentz 274
Chad Henne 265
Jake Locker 261
Joe Flacco 256
Brock Huard 254
Ryan Leaf 252
The optimistic comparison here is that Wentz turns out like
Joe Flacco, a small-school quarterback who QBASE would have been underrated. But while we should be extra cautious with the projections for players from unique situations such as Wentz and Flacco, QBASE is not generally biased against small-school quarterbacks. It rates Jimmy Garoppolo more highly, for example.
Overall, the projection finds that Wentz's flashes of brilliance on film are more similar to the flashes for the NFL flops on the above list. While Wentz may overcome the odds and be another Flacco, the Browns don't need to take that chance at No. 2. A much better opportunity will be available to them.
Jared Goff, California Golden Bears
Projecting Goff's Future
Mean Projection, Years 3-5: 1211 DYAR
Bust (< 500) 28.3%
Adequate Starter
(500-1499) 34.1%
Upper Tier (1500-2500) 23.5%
Elite (>2500) 14.2%
While Goff is not a sure thing, his estimated chances of succeeding in the NFL are only a little bit lower than those for
Marcus Mariota, QBASE's favorite prospect from the 2015 draft. Goff has the kind of numbers in his final college season (64.5 percent completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 43 TDs, 13 INT) that successful NFL quarterbacks usually have. He posted those numbers against a good, but not great, set of defenses (ranked No. 30 in college football by our estimates). He had little help in terms of NFL-caliber talent at receiver or on the offensive line. The only teammate at those positions who projects to be drafted in the first four rounds this year is potential third-round receiver
Kenny Lawler.
Goff becomes QBASE's No. 9 quarterback prospect of the past 21 years. Mariota occupied that same spot last year, but he has moved up in the reshuffling from another year of data being added to the model.
Top 10 Prospects Since 1996, Based On QBASE
Player Projected DYAR
Philip Rivers 1969
Carson Palmer 1934
Donovan McNabb 1831
Peyton Manning 1306
Marcus Mariota 1302
Russell Wilson 1246
Byron Leftwich 1239
Ben Roethlisberger 1227
Jared Goff 1211
Aaron Rodgers 1205
Players from earlier years are part of the model that creates the projections, so the takeaway here is not that Goff is likely to be as good as the fellow Cal alum just below him on the list. Goff placing so highly instead says that his résumé resembles those of other prospects who succeeded as NFL quarterbacks. Our projection gives Goff the best shot this year, almost 40 percent, of being the kind of upper-tier player who solves a team's long-term QB dilemma.
Paxton Lynch, Memphis Tigers
Projecting Lynch's Future
Mean Projection, Years 3-5: 104 DYAR
Bust (< 500) 67.2%
Adequate Starter
(500-1499) 21.3%
Upper Tier (1500-2500) 8.7%
Elite (>2500) 2.9%
At first blush, Lynch's 2015 numbers (66.8 percent completion rate, 8.5 YPA, 28 TDs, 4 INT) look promising. The bloom comes off the rose, however, when you correct for Lynch running up his numbers against the No. 86 slate of opposing defenses. While QBASE finds enough in the raw numbers for past prospects such as
Ben Roethlisberger to produce a high projection despite weak competition, Lynch's stats do not quite rise to that bar.
Even with QBASE's pessimism about Lynch's outlook, the projection still gives him about a 33 percent chance of being at least an adequate starter. Quarterbacks with those odds of success have historically gone in the second round, so the projection would view it as a reach if, as some mock drafts suggest, the Broncos selected him with their first-round pick (No. 31 overall).
Connor Cook, Michigan State Spartans
Projecting Cook's Future
Mean Projection, Years 3-5: -301 DYAR
Bust (< 500) 77.7%
Adequate Starter
(500-1499) 15.2%
Upper Tier (1500-2500) 5.7%
Elite (>2500) 1.5%
Cook projects as a below-replacement-level NFL quarterback. Last year's 56.1 percent completion rate in an era in which college quarterbacks routinely complete over 60 percent of their passes recalls other NFL flops such as Jake Locker.
Cook did not even fail in college against particularly strong competition. The defenses Michigan State faced ranked No. 51 in our estimates. Moreover, Cook had the benefit of playing with the most NFL-caliber teammates of any prospect in this year's class. Those teammates include All-America left tackle
Jack Conklin, likely a first-round pick this year. Cook's inability to play better in college despite favorable circumstances makes him a long shot to succeed in the NFL, despite going in the second round in many mock drafts.
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State Nittany Lions
Projecting Hackenberg's Future
Mean Projection, Years 3-5: -414 DYAR
Bust (< 500) 80.1%
Adequate Starter
(500-1499) 13.6%
Upper Tier (1500-2500) 5.1%
Elite (>2500) 1.2%
Compared to Cook, Hackenberg played against a slightly tougher college schedule and had less support in NFL-caliber offensive teammates. But Hackenberg projects further below replacement level because his expected draft position is lower and his 2015 stats (53.5 percent completion rate, 7.0 YPA, 16 TDs, 6 INT) are even worse.
No quarterback in QBASE's database (all top-100 picks since 1996) has succeeded with remotely similar stats. The list of previous top-100 picks with completion rates under 55 percent in their last college season -- Brock Huard, Dave Ragone, Josh McCown, Kyle Boller, Marques Tuiasosopo and Quincy Carter -- augurs poorly for Hackenberg's NFL prospects.
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State Bulldogs
Projecting Prescott's Future
Mean Projection, Years 3-5: 421 DYAR
Bust (< 500) 54.9%
Adequate Starter
(500-1499) 26.6%
Upper Tier (1500-2500) 12.8%
Elite (>2500) 5.7%
The projection rates Prescott far ahead of Lynch and Cook, prospects expected to go earlier in the draft. Often compared to Tim Tebow earlier in his college career, Prescott did not have as much NFL-caliber talent surrounding him, despite the presence of projected 2017 first-round wide receiver
Fred Ross. Prescott's projection here accounts for that, as well as him facing the toughest set of opposing defenses of any quarterback prospect in this year's draft (No. 14 in FBS last season).
QBASE does not predict Prescott to be a likely NFL success, but his 45 percent chance of being at least an adequate starter gives him enough upside to make him worth a Day 2 draft pick.
this year. What's new ? 
