The
Cleveland Browns once did an analytics study on draftable quarterbacks and went away from the results.
That was when the analytics said
Teddy Bridgewater was the best quarterback in the 2014 draft. The Browns took Johnny Manziel, which led to two years of shenanigans and drama that has set the team back two more years.
The team's newest regime says it believes in analytics and will use it as a tool. A public study into the quarterbacks in this year's draft is now available on ESPN.com's Insider pages.
an analytics study on Sunday that broke down 50,000 simulations for each quarterback prospect in this draft. It came up with a clear conclusion:
Jared Goff of Cal is far and away the prospect who projects best into the NFL.
This study shows how numbers can be used in the NFL, and how they can help. It may not be definitive or a final answer, but it is, as the Browns say, a legitimate tool to use to peek inside the numbers at the quarterbacks in this draft.
It is based on metrics like Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) and Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). Yes, it's above most of the mortal world. It then tries to project three to five years forward based on the simulations, and on the player's past performance. The longer a player played, the better the projection.
According to the study, Goff is the ninth-best quarterback prospect since 1999, based on QBASE. He ranks right behind
Ben Roethlisberger, and just ahead of
Aaron Rodgers.
Marcus Mariota, now with Tennessee, ranked ninth last year; he now ranks sixth based on his rookie season.
This doesn't mean Goff will be Rodgers, just that his resume most closely matches those of other prospects who succeeded. In all, Goff has a 37.8-percent chance of being an upper-tier or elite quarterback and a 28-percent chance of being a bust.
As for the other quarterback being discussed as second-pick worthy, the study shows
Carson Wentz has a 61.9-percent chance of being a bust, and a 13.8-percent chance of being upper tier or elite. Wentz's numbers place him with guys such as
EJ Manuel, Akili Smith,
Chad Henne and
Joe Flacco when it comes to projecting his college play to the NFL.
The numbers say the best scenario puts Wentz as another Flacco, but the more likely scenario is an average player.
"While Wentz may overcome the odds and be another Flacco, the Browns don't need to take that chance at No. 2. A much better opportunity will be available to them," the study states.
The best of the rest:
Dak Prescott of Mississippi State. He rates ahead of
Paxton Lynch,
Connor Cook and
Christian Hackenberg. The study did not look at
Cardale Jones of Ohio State, probably because he did not play enough.
There are many other numbers and insights in the study, which resembles a Bill James look at college quarterbacks.
The bottom line from Football Outsiders' analytics study: "Our projection gives Goff the best shot this year, almost 40 percent, of being the kind of upper-tier player who solves a team's long-term QB dilemma."
Funny how the experts back what I am saying up
Yeah bruh them missed tackles don't play into that strategy at all 
