Detroit mayor says Census Bureau ‘intentionally’ undercounted population of majority-Black city
Updated: Dec. 16, 2021, 4:13 p.m. | Published: Dec. 16, 2021, 4:13 p.m.
Second Baptist Church in the Greektown neighborhood of Detroit is the oldest African American church in the midwest. The church was founded in 1836 and was recently awarded a grant from the National Parks Service to preserve African American history within the city. (Mike Mulholland | MLive.com)Mike Mulholland | MLive.com
By Malachi Barrett | mbarret1@mlive.com
DETROIT, MI -- Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan says an audit of 2020 census data by Michigan researchers suggests an intentional effort to undercount the majority-Black city’s population.
Researchers from the University of Michigan and Wayne State University estimated an 8% undercount in a selection of neighborhoods across the city. Duggan said the independent analysis proves the 2020 data is inaccurate, which carries massive implications on city finances and federal aid. The mayor said the undercount wasn’t a mistake, blaming former President Donald Trump for ending the 2020 count early and accusing the U.S. Census Bureau of purposefully prioritizing other areas over Detroit.
“This is the first time I have ever seen an effort in which there was, I believe, an intentional decision not to count Detroit thoroughly,” Duggan said.
Data from the 2020 census showed Detroit is home to 639,111 residents, a 10.5% decrease since the previous count from a decade earlier. Duggan said he believes the population is closer to 700,000.
A difference of nearly 61,000 people is the size of the entire city of St. Clair Shores or Kentwood.
An undercount for Detroit has a significant impact on the city’s budget. Federal programs rely on census data to appropriate $1.5 trillion in funding, so the city could miss out on its rightful share of funding for the next decade. The census figures were also used to redraw Michigan’s political maps ahead of 2022 elections.
Reynolds Farley, a University of Michigan professor who studies population trends, said roughly $5,000 in federal funding is allocated per person. Calculated this way, the city could stand to lose $305 million.
“This defines the city’s future for the next decade,” Duggan said. “You have to get the count right.”
In 2019, the Census Bureau estimated 670,000 people lived in Detroit. The official count released earlier this year found 31,000 fewer Detroit residents. Researchers called this drop “anomalous and implausible.”
They pointed to prior estimates showing the Detroit population declining at a rate of 0.4% between 2016 and 2019. The census figures show a decline of 5% between 2019 and 2020.
Duggan said he had early suspicions that changes in the administration of the 2020 census would result in inaccuracies. When the numbers were released, he immediately pledged to challenge the count.
The city is filing an appeal with the U.S. Department of Commerce to correct the data. If that doesn’t work, Duggan is prepared to file a federal lawsuit.
Duggan said he’s shared his concerns with President Joe Biden, who relied on the Detroit mayor to run his 2020 campaign in Michigan. Though Duggan said he doesn’t want to sue the federal government, he expects the Biden administration would want to “correct a terrible injustice.”
“Everybody knows my relationship with the president, but the president isn’t going to reverse census numbers because I complain,” Duggan said. “The appeal had to be based on objective documentation, which is why I went to the University of Michigan.”
The analysis found the census may have undercounted the number of occupied housing units across 10 census blocks that were studied. If undercounts occurred to a similar degree across the city’s 600 block groups, it could result in an undercount of tens of thousands, said H. Luke Shaefer, director of Poverty Solutions at the University of Michigan.
Researchers also compared U.S. Postal Service data. Combined with the canvass, they found higher rates of occupancy in each of the neighborhoods they looked at. For example, the census showed Jefferson Chalmers neighborhood had 85% occupancy rate, while the canvass showed 95% occupancy and USPS data showed 91%.
Updated: Dec. 16, 2021, 4:13 p.m. | Published: Dec. 16, 2021, 4:13 p.m.
Second Baptist Church in the Greektown neighborhood of Detroit is the oldest African American church in the midwest. The church was founded in 1836 and was recently awarded a grant from the National Parks Service to preserve African American history within the city. (Mike Mulholland | MLive.com)Mike Mulholland | MLive.com
By Malachi Barrett | mbarret1@mlive.com
DETROIT, MI -- Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan says an audit of 2020 census data by Michigan researchers suggests an intentional effort to undercount the majority-Black city’s population.
Researchers from the University of Michigan and Wayne State University estimated an 8% undercount in a selection of neighborhoods across the city. Duggan said the independent analysis proves the 2020 data is inaccurate, which carries massive implications on city finances and federal aid. The mayor said the undercount wasn’t a mistake, blaming former President Donald Trump for ending the 2020 count early and accusing the U.S. Census Bureau of purposefully prioritizing other areas over Detroit.
“This is the first time I have ever seen an effort in which there was, I believe, an intentional decision not to count Detroit thoroughly,” Duggan said.
Data from the 2020 census showed Detroit is home to 639,111 residents, a 10.5% decrease since the previous count from a decade earlier. Duggan said he believes the population is closer to 700,000.
A difference of nearly 61,000 people is the size of the entire city of St. Clair Shores or Kentwood.
An undercount for Detroit has a significant impact on the city’s budget. Federal programs rely on census data to appropriate $1.5 trillion in funding, so the city could miss out on its rightful share of funding for the next decade. The census figures were also used to redraw Michigan’s political maps ahead of 2022 elections.
Reynolds Farley, a University of Michigan professor who studies population trends, said roughly $5,000 in federal funding is allocated per person. Calculated this way, the city could stand to lose $305 million.
“This defines the city’s future for the next decade,” Duggan said. “You have to get the count right.”
In 2019, the Census Bureau estimated 670,000 people lived in Detroit. The official count released earlier this year found 31,000 fewer Detroit residents. Researchers called this drop “anomalous and implausible.”
They pointed to prior estimates showing the Detroit population declining at a rate of 0.4% between 2016 and 2019. The census figures show a decline of 5% between 2019 and 2020.
Duggan said he had early suspicions that changes in the administration of the 2020 census would result in inaccuracies. When the numbers were released, he immediately pledged to challenge the count.
The city is filing an appeal with the U.S. Department of Commerce to correct the data. If that doesn’t work, Duggan is prepared to file a federal lawsuit.
Duggan said he’s shared his concerns with President Joe Biden, who relied on the Detroit mayor to run his 2020 campaign in Michigan. Though Duggan said he doesn’t want to sue the federal government, he expects the Biden administration would want to “correct a terrible injustice.”
“Everybody knows my relationship with the president, but the president isn’t going to reverse census numbers because I complain,” Duggan said. “The appeal had to be based on objective documentation, which is why I went to the University of Michigan.”
The analysis found the census may have undercounted the number of occupied housing units across 10 census blocks that were studied. If undercounts occurred to a similar degree across the city’s 600 block groups, it could result in an undercount of tens of thousands, said H. Luke Shaefer, director of Poverty Solutions at the University of Michigan.
Researchers also compared U.S. Postal Service data. Combined with the canvass, they found higher rates of occupancy in each of the neighborhoods they looked at. For example, the census showed Jefferson Chalmers neighborhood had 85% occupancy rate, while the canvass showed 95% occupancy and USPS data showed 91%.
