2013 NBA Mock Draft 1.0
The 2013 draft features athletic pool of prospects but all have questions
Originally Published: April 9, 2013
By Chad Ford | ESPN Insider
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Chad Ford's NBA Mock Draft
Chad Ford looks over his projections for the first round of the NBA draft.
Tags: Chad Ford, Nerlens Noel, Jeff Withey, Marcus Smart, Trey Burke, Mock Draft
NEXT VIDEO
RecruitingNation: Louisville, Michigan recruiting
The Final Four is over and the Louisville Cardinals are the national champions. With their victory, the college basketball season has come to an end. Likewise, the scouting of competitive games also has ended, and thus we're ready to reveal our first full mock draft of 2013.
All year we have kept tabs on the draft stock of players using our Big Board and the Top 100 list. Both tools are a reflection of the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs about a player's relative value in the draft.
A mock draft is a different animal altogether. In a mock draft we don't tell you where a player should go, but rather, what each team in the draft would likely do with their pick. At this point very little is set in stone, as we are still in the NBA regular season. Expect this mock draft to fluctuate greatly over the course of the next two months.
Draft order will change, as will the stock of a number of players thanks to draft camps in Portsmouth, Va., and Chicago in the coming month. We still won't know which underclassmen officially declare for the draft until the April 28 deadline. We won't even be sure of the non-lottery draft order until the regular season ends. Nor will we know the results of the lottery draft order until the NBA draft lottery on May 21. Thus, the mock draft order begins with the lottery teams owning the greatest possibility of winning the No. 1 pick (by percentage), then followed by the remaining teams in reverse order of current standings.
If you want to check out what your team would do with the No. 1 pick, check out our Lottery Mock Draft Machine that features more than 2,000 scenarios.
Here's my initial stab at a full first-round mock draft for 2013 (assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state their intentions on the draft declares), after accounting for team needs.
MORE DRAFT CONTENT:
Chad Ford's Big Board | Ford's Top 100 | Who's In, Who's Out | The Lottery Machine
1Nerlens NoelCharlotte Bobcats (25 percent chance to win lottery )
COLLEGE: KentuckyAGE: 18HT: 6-11WT: 215POS: C
Analysis: The Bobcats need help everywhere. With the possible exception of small forward (where last year's No. 2 pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is holding down the fort), Charlotte doesn't really have an A-list player on its roster. The Bobcats already have a young, athletic project in Bismack Biyombo, but every scout feels that Noel has much more potential than Biyombo and most GMs feel Noel has the most upside of any player in the draft. Noel's ACL injury is an obvious red flag, but even that could turn into a blessing. If the Bobcats have to sit Noel for much of the season, they'll likely finish with the best chance of winning the lottery in 2014. With Andrew Wiggins and a stellar high school class of 2014 coming up, it might be worth the wait.
PLAYER CARD
2Marcus SmartOrlando Magic (19.9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma St.AGE: 19HT: 6-4WT: 225POS: PG
Analysis: The Orlando Magic have promising young players at the 3, 4 and 5. While they could certainly upgrade there (and might if Noel is available), I expect them to take a backcourt player at No. 2. Jameer Nelson is 31 and starting to slow down. Adding a dominant player like Smart would upgrade the position immensely. While Smart has his weaknesses (his jump shot is shaky and he needs to tighten up his handle), he's strong, has a great motor and toughness, is a beast defensively and brings the leadership a young rudderless team like the Magic desperately needs.
PLAYER CARD
3Ben McLemorePhoenix Suns (15.6)
COLLEGE: KansasAGE: 20HT: 6-5WT: 195POS: SG
Analysis: The Phoenix Suns shot 32 percent on 3-pointers this season and desperately need to improve. Their starting 2-guards, Shannon Brown and Wesley Johnson, both struggled from 3. Adding McLemore makes a lot of sense. He's one of the two or three best pure shooters in the draft and has great length and athleticism at his position. He can be a bit of a wallflower, but when he gets going he's as good as anyone in the draft.
PLAYER CARD
4Otto PorterCleveland Cavaliers (11.9)
COLLEGE: GeorgetownAGE: 19HT: 6-8WT: 200POS: SF
Analysis: The Cavaliers have dynamic scorers in both backcourt positions in Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. Their frontcourt is also virtually set with Tristan Thompson, Anderson Varejao and Tyler Zeller. Their biggest hole is at the 3, and Porter looks like the perfect complementary piece. He's a jack of all trades, doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective and is a team player. I can't think of a better fit for Porter or the Cavs.
PLAYER CARD
5Victor OladipoDetroit Pistons (8.8)
COLLEGE: IndianaAGE: 20HT: 6-5WT: 214POS: SG
Analysis: The Pistons' biggest need is at small forward. Since shipping Tayshaun Prince off to Memphis, they haven't really had anyone fill his spot. However, I think Oladipo is a better fit for Detroit. Rodney Stuckey has worn out his welcome in Detroit and Oladipo is the type of player that thrived with the Pistons when President of Basketball Operations Joe Dumars was still suiting up. Olapido is an elite defender, an explosive athlete and a rapidly improving offensive player. They could settle on a player like Shabazz Muhammad here, but I think Oladipo is the best player on the board for them.
PLAYER CARD
6Trey BurkeNew Orleans Hornets (5.5)
COLLEGE: MichiganAGE: 20HT: 6-1WT: 175POS: PG
Analysis: The Hornets have interesting young players at every position right now. Their biggest need is probably at small forward, though Al-Farouq Aminu has started to show some promise this year. Clearly the Hornets have a very solid point guard in Greivis Vasquez. However, Burke gives them a completely different look and would be a nice complement to Vasquez at the point. He might be a bit undersized, but his toughness, all-around game, mistake-free basketball and winning attitude should be a great fit in New Orleans.
PLAYER CARD
7Shabazz MuhammadSacramento Kings (5.4)
COLLEGE: UCLAAGE: 20HT: 6-6WT: 225POS: SF
Analysis: The Kings' biggest hole is at small forward, where they continue to feel the sting from the disastrous John Salmons trade from a couple years ago. Salmons is a shell of himself and the Kings are desperately in need of an upgrade. While Muhammad has been a slight disappointment as a freshman, he's tough, knows how to score and brings a strong motor to the table. I'm not sure if there will be enough shots for Muhammad with DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Thornton, but I assume the Kings, under new management whether in Sacramento or Seattle, will start to clean house.
PLAYER CARD
8Alex LenOklahoma City Thunder via Toronto Raptors (2.2)
COLLEGE: MarylandAGE: 19HT: 7-1WT: 225POS: C
Analysis: The Thunder get this pick from the Raptors (which the Rockets received as part of the Kyle Lowry trade only to move it onto OKC as part of the James Harden deal) as long as the Raptors aren't picking in the top three. Oklahoma City needs to find a long-term replacement for Harden at the 2 and a long-term backup for Kendrick Perkins at the 5. Len seems like great value here. He's one of the two or three biggest players in the draft, has a decent offensive game and can rebound and block shots. It really feels like he's scratching the surface. The Thunder can afford to bring him along slowly and hope he develops.
PLAYER CARD
9Anthony BennettWashington Wizards (2.3)
COLLEGE: UNLVAGE: 20HT: 6-8WT: 240POS: PF
Analysis: The Wizards would have to be thrilled if they can land Bennett this late in the draft. Some teams will look at him as high as No. 2. Not only is Bennett the best player left on the board, but he also fits a need for Washington at the 4. Emeka Okafor has been solid there, but he's not the long-term answer. And at this point it doesn't look like young players like Jan Vesely or Kevin Seraphin are, either. Bennett's NBA body combined with his ability to score anywhere on the floor should give the Wizards another big boost next year.
PLAYER CARD
10Gary HarrisMinnesota Timberwolves (1.1)
COLLEGE: Michigan St.AGE: 18HT: 6-4WT: 210POS: SG
Analysis: I think it's pretty likely that Harris decides to stay in college another year and undergo shoulder surgery. However, if he does end up declaring, he's a very good fit for a Timberwolves team that still is searching for a long-term solution at shooting guard. The team is shooting just 30 percent from beyond the arc this year and getting a player like Harris who can really knock down shots is a priority.
PLAYER CARD
11Cody ZellerPhiladelphia 76ers (0.8)
COLLEGE: IndianaAGE: 20HT: 6-11WT: 210POS: C
Analysis: At the start of the season there was talk of Zeller being the No. 1 pick. However, he didn't improve as much as scouts expected him to this season and his stock has slid a bit. He'd be a nice fit in Philly, however. With the exception of Spencer Hawes, the Sixers just don't have a lot of size. While I don't think Zeller is worthy of a top-five pick anymore, he's a good value here.
PLAYER CARD
12Mitch McGaryPortland Trail Blazers (0.7)
COLLEGE: MichiganAGE: 20HT: 6-10WT: 250POS: PF
Analysis: McGary mania is in full swing after a terrific run in the NCAA tourney, but NBA scouts still are getting their arms around his draft stock. They've really only been scouting this Mitch McGary for about eight games. However, on the surface, it appears that McGary has a lot of promise. He's got an incredible motor, is a good athlete, has great hands, rebounds, blocks shots and has shown a midrange game. It's possible he's a one-hit wonder, but I think more and more teams believe he's the same kid that ranked as one of the top five players in the country after his junior year of high school. He could be a great replacement for J.J. Hickson should he bolt in free agency this summer.
PLAYER CARD
13Michael Carter-WilliamsDallas Mavericks (0.6)
COLLEGE: SyracuseAGE: 21HT: 6-5WT: 175POS: PG
Analysis: The Mavs have been riding Darren Collison all season at the point and there's a chance they re-sign him as a restricted free agent this summer. Whether they do or don't, Carter-Williams seems like a safe play. When he's good, he looks like a top-five pick. When he's off, he doesn't look like a first-rounder. He's a good passer with great size for his position and a very smooth athlete. He lacks a jump shot and needs to get stronger, but there's so much potential there, the Mavs could swing for the fences with him at No. 13.
PLAYER CARD
14Mason PlumleePhoenix Suns via Los Angeles Lakers (0.5)
COLLEGE: DukeAGE: 23HT: 6-10WT: 230POS: PF
Analysis: The Suns will get this pick via the Lakers as part of the Steve Nash trade if L.A. ends up in the lottery. If the Suns go with a shooter with their first pick, don't be surprised if they try to add some size with their second one. Plumlee's combination of athleticism and size might make the most sense since, while he isn't exactly tough, he's tougher than most of the finesse young bigs on the roster.
PLAYER CARD
The 2013 draft features athletic pool of prospects but all have questions
Originally Published: April 9, 2013
By Chad Ford | ESPN Insider
54
177
222
Chad Ford's NBA Mock Draft
Chad Ford looks over his projections for the first round of the NBA draft.
Tags: Chad Ford, Nerlens Noel, Jeff Withey, Marcus Smart, Trey Burke, Mock Draft
NEXT VIDEO
RecruitingNation: Louisville, Michigan recruiting
The Final Four is over and the Louisville Cardinals are the national champions. With their victory, the college basketball season has come to an end. Likewise, the scouting of competitive games also has ended, and thus we're ready to reveal our first full mock draft of 2013.
All year we have kept tabs on the draft stock of players using our Big Board and the Top 100 list. Both tools are a reflection of the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs about a player's relative value in the draft.
A mock draft is a different animal altogether. In a mock draft we don't tell you where a player should go, but rather, what each team in the draft would likely do with their pick. At this point very little is set in stone, as we are still in the NBA regular season. Expect this mock draft to fluctuate greatly over the course of the next two months.
Draft order will change, as will the stock of a number of players thanks to draft camps in Portsmouth, Va., and Chicago in the coming month. We still won't know which underclassmen officially declare for the draft until the April 28 deadline. We won't even be sure of the non-lottery draft order until the regular season ends. Nor will we know the results of the lottery draft order until the NBA draft lottery on May 21. Thus, the mock draft order begins with the lottery teams owning the greatest possibility of winning the No. 1 pick (by percentage), then followed by the remaining teams in reverse order of current standings.
If you want to check out what your team would do with the No. 1 pick, check out our Lottery Mock Draft Machine that features more than 2,000 scenarios.
Here's my initial stab at a full first-round mock draft for 2013 (assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state their intentions on the draft declares), after accounting for team needs.
MORE DRAFT CONTENT:
Chad Ford's Big Board | Ford's Top 100 | Who's In, Who's Out | The Lottery Machine
1Nerlens NoelCharlotte Bobcats (25 percent chance to win lottery )
COLLEGE: KentuckyAGE: 18HT: 6-11WT: 215POS: C
Analysis: The Bobcats need help everywhere. With the possible exception of small forward (where last year's No. 2 pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is holding down the fort), Charlotte doesn't really have an A-list player on its roster. The Bobcats already have a young, athletic project in Bismack Biyombo, but every scout feels that Noel has much more potential than Biyombo and most GMs feel Noel has the most upside of any player in the draft. Noel's ACL injury is an obvious red flag, but even that could turn into a blessing. If the Bobcats have to sit Noel for much of the season, they'll likely finish with the best chance of winning the lottery in 2014. With Andrew Wiggins and a stellar high school class of 2014 coming up, it might be worth the wait.
PLAYER CARD
2Marcus SmartOrlando Magic (19.9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma St.AGE: 19HT: 6-4WT: 225POS: PG
Analysis: The Orlando Magic have promising young players at the 3, 4 and 5. While they could certainly upgrade there (and might if Noel is available), I expect them to take a backcourt player at No. 2. Jameer Nelson is 31 and starting to slow down. Adding a dominant player like Smart would upgrade the position immensely. While Smart has his weaknesses (his jump shot is shaky and he needs to tighten up his handle), he's strong, has a great motor and toughness, is a beast defensively and brings the leadership a young rudderless team like the Magic desperately needs.
PLAYER CARD
3Ben McLemorePhoenix Suns (15.6)
COLLEGE: KansasAGE: 20HT: 6-5WT: 195POS: SG
Analysis: The Phoenix Suns shot 32 percent on 3-pointers this season and desperately need to improve. Their starting 2-guards, Shannon Brown and Wesley Johnson, both struggled from 3. Adding McLemore makes a lot of sense. He's one of the two or three best pure shooters in the draft and has great length and athleticism at his position. He can be a bit of a wallflower, but when he gets going he's as good as anyone in the draft.
PLAYER CARD
4Otto PorterCleveland Cavaliers (11.9)
COLLEGE: GeorgetownAGE: 19HT: 6-8WT: 200POS: SF
Analysis: The Cavaliers have dynamic scorers in both backcourt positions in Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. Their frontcourt is also virtually set with Tristan Thompson, Anderson Varejao and Tyler Zeller. Their biggest hole is at the 3, and Porter looks like the perfect complementary piece. He's a jack of all trades, doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective and is a team player. I can't think of a better fit for Porter or the Cavs.
PLAYER CARD
5Victor OladipoDetroit Pistons (8.8)
COLLEGE: IndianaAGE: 20HT: 6-5WT: 214POS: SG
Analysis: The Pistons' biggest need is at small forward. Since shipping Tayshaun Prince off to Memphis, they haven't really had anyone fill his spot. However, I think Oladipo is a better fit for Detroit. Rodney Stuckey has worn out his welcome in Detroit and Oladipo is the type of player that thrived with the Pistons when President of Basketball Operations Joe Dumars was still suiting up. Olapido is an elite defender, an explosive athlete and a rapidly improving offensive player. They could settle on a player like Shabazz Muhammad here, but I think Oladipo is the best player on the board for them.
PLAYER CARD
6Trey BurkeNew Orleans Hornets (5.5)
COLLEGE: MichiganAGE: 20HT: 6-1WT: 175POS: PG
Analysis: The Hornets have interesting young players at every position right now. Their biggest need is probably at small forward, though Al-Farouq Aminu has started to show some promise this year. Clearly the Hornets have a very solid point guard in Greivis Vasquez. However, Burke gives them a completely different look and would be a nice complement to Vasquez at the point. He might be a bit undersized, but his toughness, all-around game, mistake-free basketball and winning attitude should be a great fit in New Orleans.
PLAYER CARD
7Shabazz MuhammadSacramento Kings (5.4)
COLLEGE: UCLAAGE: 20HT: 6-6WT: 225POS: SF
Analysis: The Kings' biggest hole is at small forward, where they continue to feel the sting from the disastrous John Salmons trade from a couple years ago. Salmons is a shell of himself and the Kings are desperately in need of an upgrade. While Muhammad has been a slight disappointment as a freshman, he's tough, knows how to score and brings a strong motor to the table. I'm not sure if there will be enough shots for Muhammad with DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Thornton, but I assume the Kings, under new management whether in Sacramento or Seattle, will start to clean house.
PLAYER CARD
8Alex LenOklahoma City Thunder via Toronto Raptors (2.2)
COLLEGE: MarylandAGE: 19HT: 7-1WT: 225POS: C
Analysis: The Thunder get this pick from the Raptors (which the Rockets received as part of the Kyle Lowry trade only to move it onto OKC as part of the James Harden deal) as long as the Raptors aren't picking in the top three. Oklahoma City needs to find a long-term replacement for Harden at the 2 and a long-term backup for Kendrick Perkins at the 5. Len seems like great value here. He's one of the two or three biggest players in the draft, has a decent offensive game and can rebound and block shots. It really feels like he's scratching the surface. The Thunder can afford to bring him along slowly and hope he develops.
PLAYER CARD
9Anthony BennettWashington Wizards (2.3)
COLLEGE: UNLVAGE: 20HT: 6-8WT: 240POS: PF
Analysis: The Wizards would have to be thrilled if they can land Bennett this late in the draft. Some teams will look at him as high as No. 2. Not only is Bennett the best player left on the board, but he also fits a need for Washington at the 4. Emeka Okafor has been solid there, but he's not the long-term answer. And at this point it doesn't look like young players like Jan Vesely or Kevin Seraphin are, either. Bennett's NBA body combined with his ability to score anywhere on the floor should give the Wizards another big boost next year.
PLAYER CARD
10Gary HarrisMinnesota Timberwolves (1.1)
COLLEGE: Michigan St.AGE: 18HT: 6-4WT: 210POS: SG
Analysis: I think it's pretty likely that Harris decides to stay in college another year and undergo shoulder surgery. However, if he does end up declaring, he's a very good fit for a Timberwolves team that still is searching for a long-term solution at shooting guard. The team is shooting just 30 percent from beyond the arc this year and getting a player like Harris who can really knock down shots is a priority.
PLAYER CARD
11Cody ZellerPhiladelphia 76ers (0.8)
COLLEGE: IndianaAGE: 20HT: 6-11WT: 210POS: C
Analysis: At the start of the season there was talk of Zeller being the No. 1 pick. However, he didn't improve as much as scouts expected him to this season and his stock has slid a bit. He'd be a nice fit in Philly, however. With the exception of Spencer Hawes, the Sixers just don't have a lot of size. While I don't think Zeller is worthy of a top-five pick anymore, he's a good value here.
PLAYER CARD
12Mitch McGaryPortland Trail Blazers (0.7)
COLLEGE: MichiganAGE: 20HT: 6-10WT: 250POS: PF
Analysis: McGary mania is in full swing after a terrific run in the NCAA tourney, but NBA scouts still are getting their arms around his draft stock. They've really only been scouting this Mitch McGary for about eight games. However, on the surface, it appears that McGary has a lot of promise. He's got an incredible motor, is a good athlete, has great hands, rebounds, blocks shots and has shown a midrange game. It's possible he's a one-hit wonder, but I think more and more teams believe he's the same kid that ranked as one of the top five players in the country after his junior year of high school. He could be a great replacement for J.J. Hickson should he bolt in free agency this summer.
PLAYER CARD
13Michael Carter-WilliamsDallas Mavericks (0.6)
COLLEGE: SyracuseAGE: 21HT: 6-5WT: 175POS: PG
Analysis: The Mavs have been riding Darren Collison all season at the point and there's a chance they re-sign him as a restricted free agent this summer. Whether they do or don't, Carter-Williams seems like a safe play. When he's good, he looks like a top-five pick. When he's off, he doesn't look like a first-rounder. He's a good passer with great size for his position and a very smooth athlete. He lacks a jump shot and needs to get stronger, but there's so much potential there, the Mavs could swing for the fences with him at No. 13.
PLAYER CARD
14Mason PlumleePhoenix Suns via Los Angeles Lakers (0.5)
COLLEGE: DukeAGE: 23HT: 6-10WT: 230POS: PF
Analysis: The Suns will get this pick via the Lakers as part of the Steve Nash trade if L.A. ends up in the lottery. If the Suns go with a shooter with their first pick, don't be surprised if they try to add some size with their second one. Plumlee's combination of athleticism and size might make the most sense since, while he isn't exactly tough, he's tougher than most of the finesse young bigs on the roster.
PLAYER CARD
@ Mitch McGary and Plumlee being lottery picks..this draft is ass.
