Projecting top 10 SFs for 2014-15
When it comes to classifying players by position, the guys who present the most trouble are the elite players such as Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.
What position does James play anyway? The past two seasons, he has spent the bulk of his time playing power forward in Miami, just as Carmelo has done in New York. Now, James and Anthony have slimmed down considerably to gear up for their respective new environments. James is headed back to Cleveland, where he joins a roster with plenty of traditional big men, while Anthony is prepping for his role in New York's new triangle offense. The guys you're used to defining as small forwards are indeed classified as small forwards, while we await the next evolutionary turn in NBA lineup usage.
Below we continue our NBA positional ranking according to forecast WARP, with the projected top 10 small forwards for the 2014-15 NBA season. (An explanation of the statistic can be found at the bottom of the page.)
James
1. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 20.0 | Win%: 75 percent
It takes more than one season to usurp the King. Last season, Durant led the NBA in WARP ahead of -- gasp -- James, who had finished first in each of the five previous seasons. James might have finished in the No. 2 slot, but it was the 10th straight season he has finished first or second. That, simply put, is amazing. His scoring efficiency and volume were right on target, but his rebounding, steals and blocks were all down. This shift was reflected in RPM, where he was as lofty as ever on offense (plus-8.7, his highest with the Heat), but dipped below average on defense (minus-0.8). It's the type of "off season" almost any player in history would kill to have.
Durant
2. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 17.1 | Win%: 69 percent
After leading the league in WARP for the first time and ending James' reign as league MVP, there is but one box left unchecked on Durant's résumé: an NBA title. During the regular season, Durant was as good as ever, posting the best winning percentage and WARP of his career on the strength of ever-sharpening passing skills. Consider this: Durant's assist rate was exactly the same in each of his first three seasons, at 3.2 percent. It has been on the climb since, and last season was double his 2012-13 rate (6.4 percent). He did this while cutting his turnover rate from the previous two seasons. Durant is one of the most valuable players in the game, and he's just entering his prime.
Anthony
3. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.4 | Win%: 59 percent
It can't be written often enough that Anthony has gotten a whole lot better as a Knick. Indeed, he's never been better, and is now a top-10 player by the numbers, not just reputation. Last season's 14.2 WARP was 3.2 more than he's had in any of his 10 other NBA seasons, and ninth in the league. His RPM (plus-3.8) was also a career best, so his impact shined through to the team level. Now, at the age of 30, Anthony will be playing in a system that might enhance his efficiency even more, and could heighten his profile as a passer as well.
Hayward
4. Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.3 | Win%: 59 percent
Not every young player gets a chance to see what it's like to become the focus of his team's offense, but that's what happened for Hayward last season. His career-best WARP was based more on volume than efficiency. As the Jazz improve, you'd expect Hayward's usage rate to ebb a little, but even if it doesn't, his 3-point percentage should be better than last season's 30.4 mark, and that in itself will boost his profile. His abilities were recognized by a restricted free agent market that paid him well over the summer.
Batum
5. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.6 | Win%: 57 percent
Maybe it has something to do with being French, but consider Batum, Joakim Noah and Boris Diaw. All three provide immense value to their respective teams, and all three do it with a full-fledged skill set that does not feature a prolific scoring arsenal. Batum had an 8.7 WARP (29th in the league), even though his usage rate (16.5 percent) fell to its lowest level since his rookie season. His true shooting percentage ballooned thanks to the increased selectivity, and he was never better as a passer or rebounder. He's just entering his prime, and there is time to work out the rough edges.
Antetokounmpo
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.8 | Win%: 58 percent
The system sees Antetokounmpo as a likely contender for the league's most improved player, a statistical observation that one could also have made by watching how his game blossomed over the summer. The chief aspect of his profile that stands out is his positive offensive RPM, which combined with his 3-point shooting, burgeoning floor game, size and tender age mark him as a standout prospect. Can he really go from replacement level to 8.8 WARP? The best players make the leap at a young age. This could be the time for Antetokounmpo.
Iguodala
7. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.62 | Win%: 58 percent
Iguodala actually had the worst season of his career in his first one with the Warriors, though that might have been by design. Iguodala's projection in this methodology (8.6 WARP) is much rosier than he looks by our usual WARP formula (3.5). Iguodala's offensive role shrunk considerably in Golden State, but it was all in service of winning. His plus-6.7 RPM was one of the league's best, and his defensive RPM of plus-4.6 marked him as a true superstar on that end. RPM was made to recognize the talents of players like Iguodala.
Leonard
8. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.59 | Win%: 59 percent
Leonard continued to grow across the board last season by hitting new highs in volume and efficiency, while providing an elite-level contribution at the defensive end. His WARP (8.4) put him in the 93rd percentile, and you still get the feeling he's capable of so much more. Gregg Popovich has said Leonard will be the new face of the Spurs, and who can doubt him? Leonard was a standout performer in the regular season, raised his game during the playoffs and was a big reason San Antonio won another championship. And when the regular season ended, he was still not yet 23. Wow.
Parsons
9. Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.9 | Win%: 53 percent
Parsons has been a very good player during the first three seasons of his professional career, but his WARP over that period slots him in the 83rd percentile of all players. No shame in that, but it's not at the level to justify the dollars he got on the restricted market this summer from Dallas. He seems like an ideal role player, but he's now getting paid to be more than that. However, if Parsons can be deployed in a way to provide All-Star production, Rick Carlisle will figure it out.
Gay
10. Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.7 | Win%: 53 percent
There was a stark difference between Gay as a Grizzly (good), and Gay as a Raptor (bad). As a King, Gay settled into more of a middle ground, and he was an effective player on both ends of the court for Sacramento. On a high-functioning team, Gay probably wouldn't have a usage rate over 27 percent, but if he continues to attack the basket like he did last year, he'll be a talent the Kings can work with.
Next five: Trevor Ariza, DeMarre Carroll, Draymond Green, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Danilo Gallinari
Carroll was quietly one of the league's most improved players. Kidd-Gilchrist is still young, raw and far short of his ceiling, but he's already providing positive value on the defensive end.
Also notable: Luol Deng, Kyle Korver, Paul Pierce, Paul George
George's injury takes him out of the rankings, but his projected winning percentage (.605) would slot him third, behind Durant and in front of Anthony.
ESPN need to
Hayward and Iguodala over Kawhi?
When it comes to classifying players by position, the guys who present the most trouble are the elite players such as Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.
What position does James play anyway? The past two seasons, he has spent the bulk of his time playing power forward in Miami, just as Carmelo has done in New York. Now, James and Anthony have slimmed down considerably to gear up for their respective new environments. James is headed back to Cleveland, where he joins a roster with plenty of traditional big men, while Anthony is prepping for his role in New York's new triangle offense. The guys you're used to defining as small forwards are indeed classified as small forwards, while we await the next evolutionary turn in NBA lineup usage.
Below we continue our NBA positional ranking according to forecast WARP, with the projected top 10 small forwards for the 2014-15 NBA season. (An explanation of the statistic can be found at the bottom of the page.)
James
1. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 20.0 | Win%: 75 percent
It takes more than one season to usurp the King. Last season, Durant led the NBA in WARP ahead of -- gasp -- James, who had finished first in each of the five previous seasons. James might have finished in the No. 2 slot, but it was the 10th straight season he has finished first or second. That, simply put, is amazing. His scoring efficiency and volume were right on target, but his rebounding, steals and blocks were all down. This shift was reflected in RPM, where he was as lofty as ever on offense (plus-8.7, his highest with the Heat), but dipped below average on defense (minus-0.8). It's the type of "off season" almost any player in history would kill to have.
Durant
2. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 17.1 | Win%: 69 percent
After leading the league in WARP for the first time and ending James' reign as league MVP, there is but one box left unchecked on Durant's résumé: an NBA title. During the regular season, Durant was as good as ever, posting the best winning percentage and WARP of his career on the strength of ever-sharpening passing skills. Consider this: Durant's assist rate was exactly the same in each of his first three seasons, at 3.2 percent. It has been on the climb since, and last season was double his 2012-13 rate (6.4 percent). He did this while cutting his turnover rate from the previous two seasons. Durant is one of the most valuable players in the game, and he's just entering his prime.
Anthony
3. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.4 | Win%: 59 percent
It can't be written often enough that Anthony has gotten a whole lot better as a Knick. Indeed, he's never been better, and is now a top-10 player by the numbers, not just reputation. Last season's 14.2 WARP was 3.2 more than he's had in any of his 10 other NBA seasons, and ninth in the league. His RPM (plus-3.8) was also a career best, so his impact shined through to the team level. Now, at the age of 30, Anthony will be playing in a system that might enhance his efficiency even more, and could heighten his profile as a passer as well.
Hayward
4. Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.3 | Win%: 59 percent
Not every young player gets a chance to see what it's like to become the focus of his team's offense, but that's what happened for Hayward last season. His career-best WARP was based more on volume than efficiency. As the Jazz improve, you'd expect Hayward's usage rate to ebb a little, but even if it doesn't, his 3-point percentage should be better than last season's 30.4 mark, and that in itself will boost his profile. His abilities were recognized by a restricted free agent market that paid him well over the summer.
Batum
5. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.6 | Win%: 57 percent
Maybe it has something to do with being French, but consider Batum, Joakim Noah and Boris Diaw. All three provide immense value to their respective teams, and all three do it with a full-fledged skill set that does not feature a prolific scoring arsenal. Batum had an 8.7 WARP (29th in the league), even though his usage rate (16.5 percent) fell to its lowest level since his rookie season. His true shooting percentage ballooned thanks to the increased selectivity, and he was never better as a passer or rebounder. He's just entering his prime, and there is time to work out the rough edges.
Antetokounmpo
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.8 | Win%: 58 percent
The system sees Antetokounmpo as a likely contender for the league's most improved player, a statistical observation that one could also have made by watching how his game blossomed over the summer. The chief aspect of his profile that stands out is his positive offensive RPM, which combined with his 3-point shooting, burgeoning floor game, size and tender age mark him as a standout prospect. Can he really go from replacement level to 8.8 WARP? The best players make the leap at a young age. This could be the time for Antetokounmpo.
Iguodala
7. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.62 | Win%: 58 percent
Iguodala actually had the worst season of his career in his first one with the Warriors, though that might have been by design. Iguodala's projection in this methodology (8.6 WARP) is much rosier than he looks by our usual WARP formula (3.5). Iguodala's offensive role shrunk considerably in Golden State, but it was all in service of winning. His plus-6.7 RPM was one of the league's best, and his defensive RPM of plus-4.6 marked him as a true superstar on that end. RPM was made to recognize the talents of players like Iguodala.
Leonard
8. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.59 | Win%: 59 percent
Leonard continued to grow across the board last season by hitting new highs in volume and efficiency, while providing an elite-level contribution at the defensive end. His WARP (8.4) put him in the 93rd percentile, and you still get the feeling he's capable of so much more. Gregg Popovich has said Leonard will be the new face of the Spurs, and who can doubt him? Leonard was a standout performer in the regular season, raised his game during the playoffs and was a big reason San Antonio won another championship. And when the regular season ended, he was still not yet 23. Wow.
Parsons
9. Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.9 | Win%: 53 percent
Parsons has been a very good player during the first three seasons of his professional career, but his WARP over that period slots him in the 83rd percentile of all players. No shame in that, but it's not at the level to justify the dollars he got on the restricted market this summer from Dallas. He seems like an ideal role player, but he's now getting paid to be more than that. However, if Parsons can be deployed in a way to provide All-Star production, Rick Carlisle will figure it out.
Gay
10. Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.7 | Win%: 53 percent
There was a stark difference between Gay as a Grizzly (good), and Gay as a Raptor (bad). As a King, Gay settled into more of a middle ground, and he was an effective player on both ends of the court for Sacramento. On a high-functioning team, Gay probably wouldn't have a usage rate over 27 percent, but if he continues to attack the basket like he did last year, he'll be a talent the Kings can work with.
Next five: Trevor Ariza, DeMarre Carroll, Draymond Green, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Danilo Gallinari
Carroll was quietly one of the league's most improved players. Kidd-Gilchrist is still young, raw and far short of his ceiling, but he's already providing positive value on the defensive end.
Also notable: Luol Deng, Kyle Korver, Paul Pierce, Paul George
George's injury takes him out of the rankings, but his projected winning percentage (.605) would slot him third, behind Durant and in front of Anthony.
ESPN need to
Hayward and Iguodala over Kawhi?
pretty much
