Grading Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard and rest of 2012 NBA rookies | The Point Forward - SI.com
The members of the 2012 draft class are just a few weeks away from the end of their rookie seasons. Rob Mahoney examined the development of several rookies Tuesday. Now, lets go player by player through the first round to assess how the top 30 picks have fared. Letter grades are given for all players who have played at least 450 minutes this season; all others receive an incomplete. (All stats and records are through Tuesday.)
1. Anthony Davis, Hornets: A-
13.2 PPG, 8 RPG, 1 APG, 1.8 BPG, 1.1 SPG in 56 games
Heres a simple question for those expressing disappointment about Davis rookie campaign, which has included injury setbacks and, perhaps, more modest numbers than many expected: Does he really look like anything other than a superstar in the making? Davis, who just turned 20, possesses a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 21.6 (the league average is 15), tops among rookie starters and second only to Pistons reserve center Andre Drummonds 22.4 for first-year players. Even though he will likely be filling out his frame for the next half-decade, Davis has performed very well around the rim, taking almost 50 percent of his shots there and finishing 70.6 percent of them. His length, which made a mockery of the NCAA last year, has translated well to the pro game and its especially effective when hes on the move, either cutting baseline or heading toward the hoop after setting a high screen. Staying with a player that mobile and long is essentially impossible for a solid chunk of NBA defenders.
His defensive impact is already being felt and will only become more noticeable as the Hornets improve and as his overall strength increases. Opponents have found success posting him up, but hes far from the typical rookie big man who is susceptible to being picked on.
Overall, Davis would earn a solid A if not for his absences from the lineup. Again, this boils down to expectations. Franchise players over the last 10 years or so have evolved to a freakish level of durability. LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and others have all played a vast, vast majority of their teams games since achieving recognition as a key contributor. The standard for greatness is a high bar, but its the only measure that makes sense for a player with Davis gifts.
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats: B
8.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1 BPG in 67 games
Kidd-Gilchrist is half-pedestrian, half-amazing. Few players are so ineffective offensively and yet so widely respected. He is essentially only a credible threat to score when in transition, but all 30 general managers would kill to have the chance to enjoy the fruits of his growth. Thats the paradox created by a 19-year-old forward with nice size, strength, quickness, length and the top motor in his class. Its not a stretch to say that he is the prototype for a modern elite defender.
Now, about the offense. He treats the three-point line as if its off limits hes shot just nine threes all season and hes yet to find an area of real strength, other than dunking, as he struggles in the post, in pick-and-roll situations and as a spot-up shooter. His poor marksmanship is exacerbated by the fact that hes not really a threat to distribute off the dribble. His mission for next season is to find a way any way to force defenses to respect him. Big picture, the fact that Kidd-Gilchrist is half-amazing makes him a full half more amazing than just about everyone else on the Bobcats roster. This is the last guy in Charlotte you need to fret about, even if he has a long way to go.
3. Bradley Beal, Wizards: B+
13.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.4 APG in 54 games
Beals supporters are surely petitioning Basketball-Reference.com to list his numbers as With John Wall and Without John Wall. No other rookie has been subject to such a dramatic tale of two seasons, as his most efficient scoring play types spot-up shooting and transition have been transformed by the presence of a real point guard. The fact that Beal couldnt hit the broad side of a barn until January throws off all of his percentages, but hes managed to climb back to a quasi-respectable PER of 13.6 and raise his three-point shooting to a very respectable 37.7 percent.
Not yet 20, Beal has a bright future, and the Wizards team performance since Walls return has flipped the mood in the nations capital. Watching these two feel out each others games over the next few seasons will be a joy to watch. Beal can continue to improve as an initiator in pick-and-roll situations, but, more important, he needs to develop a better comfort level attacking the basket and finishing in traffic if he is going to track toward elite 2-guard status.
4. Dion Waiters, Cavaliers: B-
14.7 PPG, 3 APG, 2.4 RPG, 1 SPG in 57 games
Waiters leads all rookies in usage rate despite being a 41.1 percent shooter and 31.6 percent three-point shooter. Unscientifically, he leads all rookies in terrible shots, too. But the raw tools are intriguing: He can create a shot in a flash, hes rarely afraid of the moment, he can get deep into the paint, he draws 4.5 fouls per 36 minutes and he can get hot.
The backcourt pairing with point guard Kyrie Irving makes sense, in theory, but right now it badly tilts against Waiters, as more often than not he gives off the impression that hes doing too much on offense and not nearly enough on defense. If he reins in some of the shot-selection issues, continues to look to set up drive-and-kick opportunities for shooters and concentrates his efforts on getting to the line, he could emerge as a dynamic offensive weapon. Thats a lot of ifs, though, making an arc toward a microwave bench scorer a pretty realistic possibility.
5. Thomas Robinson, Rockets (drafted by Kings): C-
4.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 0.4 BPG in 63 games
Robinsons name was synonymous with the words NBA ready last spring and yet the NBA is here, waiting, and hes not made a real impact. Some voices have already emerged, ready to write him off. But rushing to dismiss him would be a mistake, as the dysfunction permeates everyone, even the brightest of prospects, in Sacramento. That said, the biggest red flag to date is that while Robinson is totally reliant on in-the-paint opportunities for his offense, he hasnt distinguished himself as a reliable scorer around the hoop. Thought to be a fearsome finisher who would command real defensive attention, Robinson has been, mostly, an ineffective afterthought.
The Rockets offered Robinson a new lease on life at the trade deadline, an opportunity he surely welcomed. Hell be in a position to compete for a starting spot next season, pending any major free-agent or trade additions. The up-and-down Houston style should play to his strengths as an athlete. If he has to settle in as a high-energy, glass-cleaning reserve, thats an acceptable backup plan, too. Lets give him another season before we judge too harshly.
6. Damian Lillard, Blazers: A
19.1 PPG, 6.5 APG, 3.2 RPG in 70 games
The surefire Rookie of the Year has made the most of an incredibly advantageous situation. He entered the NBA with a no-nonsense attitude and tons of experience running the pick-and-roll, and he landed in Portland, where a first-year coach (Terry Stotts) was more than willing to give him the keys. Lillard has appeared in all 70 games and logged 2,703 minutes (38.6 per game), more than 900 more than any other 2012 draft pick. The Blazers have posted an above-average offense with Lillard at the helm and theyve hung around the outskirts of the Western Conference playoff chase longer than just about everyone, including team management, expected.
There are areas for potential improvement. Lillard is a tad jumper-happy, launching more than six threes per game. Like a number of big-time point guards before him, hell need to ramp up his ability to get to the free-throw line as he ages. Hes far more accomplished on the offensive end than the defensive end. Lillard will turn 23 in July, making him one of the oldest players in this class. Thats raised questions about his ceiling, given that hes older than Irving and Wall, and nearly as old as fourth-year point guard Jrue Holiday of Philadelphia. Optimists see him as a certain All-Star, while pessimists are more likely to peg him as a solid starter. More immediately, he gives the Blazers a real chance to make the playoffs in 2013-14 (assuming their longshot bid falls short this season).
7. Harrison Barnes, Warriors: B+
9.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.2 APG in 71 games
Lets take a long moment to acknowledge Barnes, the only full-time starter for a projected playoff team among the 2012 first-round picks. Only 20, Barnes has held up playing more than 25 minutes a game thanks to his excellent physique and top-notch work ethic. Barnes looked and carried himself like a pro as a high school senior and nothing has changed now that he is one. While hes unleashed his big-time hops on a few occasions, Barnes is really at his best as an auxiliary, spot-up option. His shooting has been decent but theres room for improvement, especially in his mid-range game.
Its quite possible that his reputation soon becomes that of a lockdown, defense-first perimeter stopper. Hes smart, long, quick and disciplined, and hes rebounded fairly well for a young wing. Barnes has all the makings of a long-term pro and hes still young enough that he could emerge as a dynamic offensive threat, which is what many people forecast when he was a highly ranked prep star. Hes part of a talented, stable core in Golden State with Stephen Curry, David Lee and Klay Thompson so anything besides steady development would be a surprise.
8. Terrence Ross, Raptors: C
6.4 PPG, 2 RPG, 0.6 SPG in 64 games
The Slam Dunk Contest champion finishes a fast break with more style and grace than anyone else in his draft class, but theres not much else to like about his body of work. Hes not a multifaceted playmaker for others and he doesnt get to the free-throw line, leading many of his possessions to end with low-efficiency looks. The Raptors try to move him around and make things easier for him, which does work to a degree, but he will need to extend his shooting range for that to pay real dividends.
Exactly how and where he fits in the suddenly crowded Toronto wing rotation is a key question heading into next season. Not much about GM Bryan Colangelos roster construction makes sense, so Ross role is only one of a number of questions facing the Raptors. This likely isnt the best set of circumstances for his development.
9. Andre Drummond, Pistons: A-
7.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.7 BPG in 50 games
Drummond is pure intrigue, addicting intrigue. He might very well have been the league leader in causing observers to scream for him to get more playing time, more touches, more media attention, more, more, more. Before going down with a back injury in February (an injury from which hes yet to return), Drummond posted a rookie-best PER of 22.4 and compiled per-36 minute averages of 13.3 points, 13.7 rebounds, 3.1 blocks and 1.7 steals. Those are eye-popping numbers that signal All-Star potential, given that hes still 19.
A big-bodied center with excellent athleticism, Drummond knows what he does best. More than 95 percent of his field-goal attempts have come in the basket area and he finishes nearly two-thirds of them, often with emphatic dunks. It must be noted that his offense is predicated on someone setting him up, but he knows exactly what to do with a dump pass and a second-chance opportunity. Those high-percentage looks helped drive his PER, and his presence on the court significantly improved the offensive efficiency of coach Lawrence Franks team. And, yes, the lowly Pistons were better defensively with him on the court, too, as he effectively clogs the paint simply by being out there.
We might never know why Drummond had his playing time crimped in what was clearly a rebuilding year, and its not clear whether management and the current coaching staff will be retained next season. But whoever runs the show in 2013-14 will have to realize that Drummonds potential is far and away the best thing this franchise has going for it.
10. Austin Rivers, Hornets: F
6.2 PPG, 2.1 APG, 1.8 RPG in 61 games
Its virtually impossible to assess Rivers rookie season without piling on. The numbers are just abysmal. Rivers, who has been out since breaking his hand on March 6, ranks last among qualified rookies with a PER of 6. He is shooting just 37.2 percent from the field. He has made only 40 percent of his shots at the rim, converted a below-average 32.6 percent from three-point range and hit 54.6 percent at the free-throw line. Gulp.
Eric Gordons unexpected absence definitely had the effect of throwing Rivers to the wolves. Playing for one of the NBAs worst teams didnt help, either, as he often found himself trying to create in isolation situations, where he performed exceedingly poorly. To make matters worse, Rivers has already had two surgeries since draft night. The upside here is that hes still not 21 and the Hornets will ask much less of him next season, assuming Gordon is healthy. Thats a good thing, because he broke under the weight of the load this year.
11. Meyers Leonard, Blazers: C
4.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.6 BPG in 57 games
Stotts, seeing that his team could remain competitive as long as he relied almost exclusively on his starters, cut Leonards minutes before the end of November. A midseason ankle injury also sidelined Leonard for three weeks. This hasnt been a completely lost season, though, as the youthful-looking, youthful-acting Leonard has gotten his feet wet, finding that hes capable of turning his physical assets into highlight dunks with sufficient regularity.
Past the power slams, its been hit and miss. Leonard struggles with defensive awareness, to put it kindly, as he can often be seen employing a panorama approach to isolation defense, completing a full 360-degree spin as he hopelessly tries to find the ball. Billed as a face-up threat on offense, Leonard hasnt reliably shown that type of range, although hes gotten more confident in pulling the trigger as the season has progressed.
Given his importance to the Blazers future, Leonard was underutilized this season. In an ideal world, he would have developed enough as a rookie to make a strong play for the starting job next season. Now, the Blazers enter free agency with their center spot as a question mark.
The members of the 2012 draft class are just a few weeks away from the end of their rookie seasons. Rob Mahoney examined the development of several rookies Tuesday. Now, lets go player by player through the first round to assess how the top 30 picks have fared. Letter grades are given for all players who have played at least 450 minutes this season; all others receive an incomplete. (All stats and records are through Tuesday.)
1. Anthony Davis, Hornets: A-
13.2 PPG, 8 RPG, 1 APG, 1.8 BPG, 1.1 SPG in 56 games
Heres a simple question for those expressing disappointment about Davis rookie campaign, which has included injury setbacks and, perhaps, more modest numbers than many expected: Does he really look like anything other than a superstar in the making? Davis, who just turned 20, possesses a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 21.6 (the league average is 15), tops among rookie starters and second only to Pistons reserve center Andre Drummonds 22.4 for first-year players. Even though he will likely be filling out his frame for the next half-decade, Davis has performed very well around the rim, taking almost 50 percent of his shots there and finishing 70.6 percent of them. His length, which made a mockery of the NCAA last year, has translated well to the pro game and its especially effective when hes on the move, either cutting baseline or heading toward the hoop after setting a high screen. Staying with a player that mobile and long is essentially impossible for a solid chunk of NBA defenders.
His defensive impact is already being felt and will only become more noticeable as the Hornets improve and as his overall strength increases. Opponents have found success posting him up, but hes far from the typical rookie big man who is susceptible to being picked on.
Overall, Davis would earn a solid A if not for his absences from the lineup. Again, this boils down to expectations. Franchise players over the last 10 years or so have evolved to a freakish level of durability. LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and others have all played a vast, vast majority of their teams games since achieving recognition as a key contributor. The standard for greatness is a high bar, but its the only measure that makes sense for a player with Davis gifts.
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats: B
8.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1 BPG in 67 games
Kidd-Gilchrist is half-pedestrian, half-amazing. Few players are so ineffective offensively and yet so widely respected. He is essentially only a credible threat to score when in transition, but all 30 general managers would kill to have the chance to enjoy the fruits of his growth. Thats the paradox created by a 19-year-old forward with nice size, strength, quickness, length and the top motor in his class. Its not a stretch to say that he is the prototype for a modern elite defender.
Now, about the offense. He treats the three-point line as if its off limits hes shot just nine threes all season and hes yet to find an area of real strength, other than dunking, as he struggles in the post, in pick-and-roll situations and as a spot-up shooter. His poor marksmanship is exacerbated by the fact that hes not really a threat to distribute off the dribble. His mission for next season is to find a way any way to force defenses to respect him. Big picture, the fact that Kidd-Gilchrist is half-amazing makes him a full half more amazing than just about everyone else on the Bobcats roster. This is the last guy in Charlotte you need to fret about, even if he has a long way to go.
3. Bradley Beal, Wizards: B+
13.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.4 APG in 54 games
Beals supporters are surely petitioning Basketball-Reference.com to list his numbers as With John Wall and Without John Wall. No other rookie has been subject to such a dramatic tale of two seasons, as his most efficient scoring play types spot-up shooting and transition have been transformed by the presence of a real point guard. The fact that Beal couldnt hit the broad side of a barn until January throws off all of his percentages, but hes managed to climb back to a quasi-respectable PER of 13.6 and raise his three-point shooting to a very respectable 37.7 percent.
Not yet 20, Beal has a bright future, and the Wizards team performance since Walls return has flipped the mood in the nations capital. Watching these two feel out each others games over the next few seasons will be a joy to watch. Beal can continue to improve as an initiator in pick-and-roll situations, but, more important, he needs to develop a better comfort level attacking the basket and finishing in traffic if he is going to track toward elite 2-guard status.
4. Dion Waiters, Cavaliers: B-
14.7 PPG, 3 APG, 2.4 RPG, 1 SPG in 57 games
Waiters leads all rookies in usage rate despite being a 41.1 percent shooter and 31.6 percent three-point shooter. Unscientifically, he leads all rookies in terrible shots, too. But the raw tools are intriguing: He can create a shot in a flash, hes rarely afraid of the moment, he can get deep into the paint, he draws 4.5 fouls per 36 minutes and he can get hot.
The backcourt pairing with point guard Kyrie Irving makes sense, in theory, but right now it badly tilts against Waiters, as more often than not he gives off the impression that hes doing too much on offense and not nearly enough on defense. If he reins in some of the shot-selection issues, continues to look to set up drive-and-kick opportunities for shooters and concentrates his efforts on getting to the line, he could emerge as a dynamic offensive weapon. Thats a lot of ifs, though, making an arc toward a microwave bench scorer a pretty realistic possibility.
5. Thomas Robinson, Rockets (drafted by Kings): C-
4.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 0.4 BPG in 63 games
Robinsons name was synonymous with the words NBA ready last spring and yet the NBA is here, waiting, and hes not made a real impact. Some voices have already emerged, ready to write him off. But rushing to dismiss him would be a mistake, as the dysfunction permeates everyone, even the brightest of prospects, in Sacramento. That said, the biggest red flag to date is that while Robinson is totally reliant on in-the-paint opportunities for his offense, he hasnt distinguished himself as a reliable scorer around the hoop. Thought to be a fearsome finisher who would command real defensive attention, Robinson has been, mostly, an ineffective afterthought.
The Rockets offered Robinson a new lease on life at the trade deadline, an opportunity he surely welcomed. Hell be in a position to compete for a starting spot next season, pending any major free-agent or trade additions. The up-and-down Houston style should play to his strengths as an athlete. If he has to settle in as a high-energy, glass-cleaning reserve, thats an acceptable backup plan, too. Lets give him another season before we judge too harshly.
6. Damian Lillard, Blazers: A
19.1 PPG, 6.5 APG, 3.2 RPG in 70 games
The surefire Rookie of the Year has made the most of an incredibly advantageous situation. He entered the NBA with a no-nonsense attitude and tons of experience running the pick-and-roll, and he landed in Portland, where a first-year coach (Terry Stotts) was more than willing to give him the keys. Lillard has appeared in all 70 games and logged 2,703 minutes (38.6 per game), more than 900 more than any other 2012 draft pick. The Blazers have posted an above-average offense with Lillard at the helm and theyve hung around the outskirts of the Western Conference playoff chase longer than just about everyone, including team management, expected.
There are areas for potential improvement. Lillard is a tad jumper-happy, launching more than six threes per game. Like a number of big-time point guards before him, hell need to ramp up his ability to get to the free-throw line as he ages. Hes far more accomplished on the offensive end than the defensive end. Lillard will turn 23 in July, making him one of the oldest players in this class. Thats raised questions about his ceiling, given that hes older than Irving and Wall, and nearly as old as fourth-year point guard Jrue Holiday of Philadelphia. Optimists see him as a certain All-Star, while pessimists are more likely to peg him as a solid starter. More immediately, he gives the Blazers a real chance to make the playoffs in 2013-14 (assuming their longshot bid falls short this season).
7. Harrison Barnes, Warriors: B+
9.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.2 APG in 71 games
Lets take a long moment to acknowledge Barnes, the only full-time starter for a projected playoff team among the 2012 first-round picks. Only 20, Barnes has held up playing more than 25 minutes a game thanks to his excellent physique and top-notch work ethic. Barnes looked and carried himself like a pro as a high school senior and nothing has changed now that he is one. While hes unleashed his big-time hops on a few occasions, Barnes is really at his best as an auxiliary, spot-up option. His shooting has been decent but theres room for improvement, especially in his mid-range game.
Its quite possible that his reputation soon becomes that of a lockdown, defense-first perimeter stopper. Hes smart, long, quick and disciplined, and hes rebounded fairly well for a young wing. Barnes has all the makings of a long-term pro and hes still young enough that he could emerge as a dynamic offensive threat, which is what many people forecast when he was a highly ranked prep star. Hes part of a talented, stable core in Golden State with Stephen Curry, David Lee and Klay Thompson so anything besides steady development would be a surprise.
8. Terrence Ross, Raptors: C
6.4 PPG, 2 RPG, 0.6 SPG in 64 games
The Slam Dunk Contest champion finishes a fast break with more style and grace than anyone else in his draft class, but theres not much else to like about his body of work. Hes not a multifaceted playmaker for others and he doesnt get to the free-throw line, leading many of his possessions to end with low-efficiency looks. The Raptors try to move him around and make things easier for him, which does work to a degree, but he will need to extend his shooting range for that to pay real dividends.
Exactly how and where he fits in the suddenly crowded Toronto wing rotation is a key question heading into next season. Not much about GM Bryan Colangelos roster construction makes sense, so Ross role is only one of a number of questions facing the Raptors. This likely isnt the best set of circumstances for his development.
9. Andre Drummond, Pistons: A-
7.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.7 BPG in 50 games
Drummond is pure intrigue, addicting intrigue. He might very well have been the league leader in causing observers to scream for him to get more playing time, more touches, more media attention, more, more, more. Before going down with a back injury in February (an injury from which hes yet to return), Drummond posted a rookie-best PER of 22.4 and compiled per-36 minute averages of 13.3 points, 13.7 rebounds, 3.1 blocks and 1.7 steals. Those are eye-popping numbers that signal All-Star potential, given that hes still 19.
A big-bodied center with excellent athleticism, Drummond knows what he does best. More than 95 percent of his field-goal attempts have come in the basket area and he finishes nearly two-thirds of them, often with emphatic dunks. It must be noted that his offense is predicated on someone setting him up, but he knows exactly what to do with a dump pass and a second-chance opportunity. Those high-percentage looks helped drive his PER, and his presence on the court significantly improved the offensive efficiency of coach Lawrence Franks team. And, yes, the lowly Pistons were better defensively with him on the court, too, as he effectively clogs the paint simply by being out there.
We might never know why Drummond had his playing time crimped in what was clearly a rebuilding year, and its not clear whether management and the current coaching staff will be retained next season. But whoever runs the show in 2013-14 will have to realize that Drummonds potential is far and away the best thing this franchise has going for it.
10. Austin Rivers, Hornets: F
6.2 PPG, 2.1 APG, 1.8 RPG in 61 games
Its virtually impossible to assess Rivers rookie season without piling on. The numbers are just abysmal. Rivers, who has been out since breaking his hand on March 6, ranks last among qualified rookies with a PER of 6. He is shooting just 37.2 percent from the field. He has made only 40 percent of his shots at the rim, converted a below-average 32.6 percent from three-point range and hit 54.6 percent at the free-throw line. Gulp.
Eric Gordons unexpected absence definitely had the effect of throwing Rivers to the wolves. Playing for one of the NBAs worst teams didnt help, either, as he often found himself trying to create in isolation situations, where he performed exceedingly poorly. To make matters worse, Rivers has already had two surgeries since draft night. The upside here is that hes still not 21 and the Hornets will ask much less of him next season, assuming Gordon is healthy. Thats a good thing, because he broke under the weight of the load this year.
11. Meyers Leonard, Blazers: C
4.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.6 BPG in 57 games
Stotts, seeing that his team could remain competitive as long as he relied almost exclusively on his starters, cut Leonards minutes before the end of November. A midseason ankle injury also sidelined Leonard for three weeks. This hasnt been a completely lost season, though, as the youthful-looking, youthful-acting Leonard has gotten his feet wet, finding that hes capable of turning his physical assets into highlight dunks with sufficient regularity.
Past the power slams, its been hit and miss. Leonard struggles with defensive awareness, to put it kindly, as he can often be seen employing a panorama approach to isolation defense, completing a full 360-degree spin as he hopelessly tries to find the ball. Billed as a face-up threat on offense, Leonard hasnt reliably shown that type of range, although hes gotten more confident in pulling the trigger as the season has progressed.
Given his importance to the Blazers future, Leonard was underutilized this season. In an ideal world, he would have developed enough as a rookie to make a strong play for the starting job next season. Now, the Blazers enter free agency with their center spot as a question mark.
austin rivers
acting like he's the damn scoring guard.
that tripped me out how they were doing what they could to get him going. it was beautiful...but right back to Tulsa he went
and dude dominating dudes down there
this is a guy that needs NBA minutes
He even has a new one"they'll be with the Thunder for a long time"
the only way he's seeing the floor is if Fisher is gone next year tho because of Brooks
