Scustin Bieburr
Baby baybee baybee UUUGH
At least according to chatgpt:
1. Understanding the AI Investment “Bubble”
If AI investment is indeed a bubble, it means:
Valuations exceed fundamentals (companies are priced for unrealistic future profits).
Speculative capital floods in, often driven by hype rather than earnings.
A correction (sharp drop in valuations and funding) becomes likely once reality catches up.
This pattern mirrors historical bubbles — like the dot-com boom (2000) or crypto surges (2017, 2021).
2. What Happens When a Bubble Bursts
When bubbles burst, they often trigger:
Equity market sell-offs, especially in tech-heavy indices.
Reduced venture capital and R&D funding, slowing innovation.
Layoffs in startups and even large firms that overexpanded.
Credit tightening, as lenders become risk-averse.
So, governments and companies may try to cushion the impact to prevent a systemic shock.
3. How Governments Could Intervene
a. Targeted Bailouts or Guarantees
Governments might:
Support key infrastructure companies (e.g., cloud providers, semiconductor firms, or national AI labs).
Provide loan guarantees or temporary funding to maintain research continuity.
Use sovereign wealth funds to stabilize “strategic” tech sectors.
Analogy: Similar to how the U.S. supported systemically important banks in 2008–09 or chip manufacturers under the CHIPS Act.
b. Public Investment Programs
Instead of rescuing firms directly, governments can:
Fund public–private AI R&D initiatives (keeping talent and IP domestic).
Offer grants and tax credits for productive AI applications (healthcare, defense, education).
This channels capital into real innovation, mitigating speculative excesses.
c. Monetary & Fiscal Tools
If the bubble’s collapse threatens broader growth:
Central banks could adjust interest rates or provide liquidity to prevent credit freezes.
Fiscal stimulus could be targeted toward tech adoption in public services, helping demand stabilize.
I suspect they'll quietly try to pivot to robotics. Invest in the infrastructure(nuclear power, solar power, construction firms, chip manufacturing) not software or services. Remember that the stock market is how rich people store their money. Bill gates doesnt have a giant vault like scrooge mcduck. If Microsoft stock tanks, so does his net worth. The rich are also landlords who store their wealth in pieces of land and real estate. So people who own the land that data centers are being built on are making money. People who own buildings that the office staff or robots would be in are making money. If you have investments in REIT(real estate investment trust) you'll be alright.
This current administration has no problem throwing money at a problem(literally just sent 40billion to get Argentina out of debt) youre delusional if you dont think they'll throw as much money as they can at the ai Bubble if thats their solution to everything so far. Trump and co are quite literally invested in this Bubble never popping. Many democrats too.
1. Understanding the AI Investment “Bubble”If AI investment is indeed a bubble, it means:
Valuations exceed fundamentals (companies are priced for unrealistic future profits).
Speculative capital floods in, often driven by hype rather than earnings.
A correction (sharp drop in valuations and funding) becomes likely once reality catches up.
This pattern mirrors historical bubbles — like the dot-com boom (2000) or crypto surges (2017, 2021).
2. What Happens When a Bubble BurstsWhen bubbles burst, they often trigger:
Equity market sell-offs, especially in tech-heavy indices.
Reduced venture capital and R&D funding, slowing innovation.
Layoffs in startups and even large firms that overexpanded.
Credit tightening, as lenders become risk-averse.
So, governments and companies may try to cushion the impact to prevent a systemic shock.
3. How Governments Could Intervenea. Targeted Bailouts or Guarantees
Governments might:
Support key infrastructure companies (e.g., cloud providers, semiconductor firms, or national AI labs).
Provide loan guarantees or temporary funding to maintain research continuity.
Use sovereign wealth funds to stabilize “strategic” tech sectors.
Analogy: Similar to how the U.S. supported systemically important banks in 2008–09 or chip manufacturers under the CHIPS Act.b. Public Investment Programs
Instead of rescuing firms directly, governments can:
Fund public–private AI R&D initiatives (keeping talent and IP domestic).
Offer grants and tax credits for productive AI applications (healthcare, defense, education).
This channels capital into real innovation, mitigating speculative excesses.
c. Monetary & Fiscal Tools
If the bubble’s collapse threatens broader growth:
Central banks could adjust interest rates or provide liquidity to prevent credit freezes.
Fiscal stimulus could be targeted toward tech adoption in public services, helping demand stabilize.
4. How Companies Could Use Stock Buybacks Strategically
a. Signaling Confidence
When valuations drop, large tech firms with strong cash flows (e.g., NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple) could:- Buy back shares to signal long-term confidence.
- Support their stock price, cushioning market sentiment.
b. Absorbing Volatility
Buybacks reduce float (shares outstanding), which can:- Stabilize price movements.
- Increase earnings per share (EPS) mechanically, attracting institutional investors back.
I suspect they'll quietly try to pivot to robotics. Invest in the infrastructure(nuclear power, solar power, construction firms, chip manufacturing) not software or services. Remember that the stock market is how rich people store their money. Bill gates doesnt have a giant vault like scrooge mcduck. If Microsoft stock tanks, so does his net worth. The rich are also landlords who store their wealth in pieces of land and real estate. So people who own the land that data centers are being built on are making money. People who own buildings that the office staff or robots would be in are making money. If you have investments in REIT(real estate investment trust) you'll be alright.
This current administration has no problem throwing money at a problem(literally just sent 40billion to get Argentina out of debt) youre delusional if you dont think they'll throw as much money as they can at the ai Bubble if thats their solution to everything so far. Trump and co are quite literally invested in this Bubble never popping. Many democrats too.
It would lead to economic malaise the likes of which I think kicks 2008 in the nuts. Its the only growing sector in the US economy.