How will History look back on the OKC Thunder

[LV Koopa]

I'm going to stop you right there. Do i even need to explain the flaws in a metric that has an infinite number of multicollinearity issues or even the fact that Harden made the second unit function and he played with one of KD or Westbrook against more second units than Westbrook and Durant did, where they played against more starting units than Harden played with one of KD or Westbrook?

Well, sure you can. Except this isn't raw PM, but Regularized Adjusted PM which takes past performance into account. Obviously there are still issues with what questions this answers but you said Harden's role had an effect on his impact/supposed star level. RAPM answers that very well because we can address line up issues with Durant and Westbrook. Even raw PM of Harden + bench vs Harden/KD vs Harden/WB will get you somewhere in the ballpark. Good thing 82games tracked lineup data and every Harden/x/x/x/x lineup for OKC had a net positive rating huh?

Here let's get into numbers:

From the realgm discussion about Harden. This was a few months after gamblers started figuring out how OKCs offense was so ridiculous even though KD was sitting:

Spoiler: April 1st, [B

2012] [/B]

We know in the past that 2-superstar teams have dominated based on overwhelming opponents together in this way, so a logical inference would be that Durant & Westbrook have now lifted the ceiling of what they can do together, and are just tearing it up on offense. Is that what's happening? Nope. The team is playing about 75% of the time with Durant & Westbrook out there together, and about 25% of the time with neither out there, and the offense is about the same regardless, around 109-110. Which is about the same as the Suns do with Steve Nash on the floor, while they fall completely off a cliff without Nash.

However we divide up the credit among Thunder players, the reason they are the #1 offense in the league has everything to do with this very strange phenomenon that they are doing just fine when their two superstars are both on the bench.

And of course, what do the numbers say about Harden right now:

#1 On Court Team Offense in the league
#1 On/off Team Offense in the league
#3 Current Offensive RAPM by Engelmann
#1 Current Offensive RAPM without prior by Engelmann

All while Harden is putting up ridiculous shooting efficiency numbers. Ridiculous to the point most would say they are unsustainable, except month to month they keep creeping upward, along with his volume.

No it wasn't. A certain amount of his damage was done against second units with less defensive attention than actual All-Stars. You can't possibly say he was providing impact at that level when he wasn't in a role to do so.

Except, once again you're just speculating and talking nonsense. There's no such thing as "less defensive attention" for Harden just because he comes off the bench. What you're positing here is that the rest of the league is stupid enough to allow a guy posting historical TS% to just run amok because he doesn't start. This also assumes Brooks just only plays Harden vs bench units which is literally impossible short of him playing only <20 mpg. I mean, what you're saying is so comical and made up I'm 100% sure you really have no clue what was going on with OKC during that 2011-12 season.

Harden was #2 in the league rocking a 66% TS% and 58.2% EFG. Even the crap stats like OWS and individual ORTG had him at 125.3 (#3 in the league) and 7.5 (#5). He was also playing 31 MPG. It was literally impossible for him to put this production up vs only bench players. That's a logical fallacy in itself but furthermore:

Harden was #2 on the team in Simple Rating and even had + differential in all bench line ups. He was a clear as day All Star.

You're arguing something completely different now. First you're claiming he had All-Star impact on Thunder (which he didn't), now you're talking about his potential and talent. And no 'many people' weren't pegging him as an all time great scorer at the point. That is just nonsense.

Actually, many were. You just missed the boat. No idea if you participate in sports gambling or stats but by the Summer of 2012 the biggest name on the scene was James Harden. He was a CLEAR All Star level player at that point. Really, the skepticism started before that season and by January 2012 it was a big debate on if he could sustain a Superstar level, max contract level of play. Everyone was convinced he was an easy All Star at that point.

His role was restricting him from having All-Star impact, which he clearly didn't have. What's him being the second best player in the series have to do with anything?

Already proved it above. But just to further the point:

Spoiler: Harden2011Durant

With Durant

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
78 1351 11.3 8.9 3.3 3.9 2.5 .486 .546

Without Durant

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
81 838 24.6 15.1 9.5 4.7 3.6 .547 .638

Spoiler: Harden2011Westbrook

With Westbrook

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
82 1159 10.4 7.6 3.2 3.8 2.2 .508 .577

Without Westbrook

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%

Spoiler: Harden2012Durant

With Durant

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
62 1420 14.9 9.6 4.7 4.7 3.6 .570 .638

Without Durant

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
62 526 31.2 17.2 12.5 4.7 6.0 .607 .687

Spoiler: Harden2012Westbrook

With Westbrook

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
62 1231 13.7 8.9 4.4 4.5 3.7 .571 .632

Without Westbrook

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
62 715 29.0 16.3 11.1 4.9 5.2 .600 .684

He did those on 19.5% and 21.6% Usage Rates at 26.7 and 31.4 MPG. That's pretty much the definition of a superstar level of impact. Like I said before - just because YOU didn't know didn't mean others didn't.

He was never gonna have max player impact/production on this team. His offensive production was replaceable and he didn't provide any defense, that doesn't warrant a max contract. There was only a 20 game difference and they had more success against pretty much every team, than they did in the previous season. They didn't lose a step when Harden left - 82 games with playoff-like situations and tough trips in their schedule is more than enough to make this claim.

Only somewhat right. His offensive production was replaceable by Durant, not by the players brought in to replace him. Just by the virtue of having to play 3 players x amount of minutes to equal Harden's production OKC was going to lose out. Even if OKC can't get max production out of him (hint, with 3 stars you rarely will), they would STILL get a ton of value out of him. Also they actually did lose a step. Kevin Martin was OK in OKC but everything else did what? OKCs production was lifted by the fact that WB and Durant were young and got better. Since they could have kept all 3, and Harden's game didn't negatively impact either one then it's ludicrous to even think this way. Lol @ only a 20 game difference. Right.

No, my argument was they didn't need three perimeter players on max contracts, not that they have too much perimeter talent. They traded Harden for perimeter players to replace his production, that's why and hoped that three picks they received would go towards filling out their weaknesses - which is why they drafted Adams to TRY and fill the void there.

Which makes 0 sense. Whether those players play on the perimeter or the front court is pretty much irrelevant. You already know what their positions do to their values by virtue of their production in line ups together. Heck, if there is any combination in the modern league you'd want with 3 max players to ignore redundancy issues it was 3 perimeter players with 2 of them being Durant and Harden. The latter was using very little possessions and dominating. Secondly, what you're saying here makes the OKC trade look bad which is what others have been telling you.

OKC has a third perimeter star. So they have this weakness in the front court and what do they do? Trade him for perimeter players and picks in the hopes of turning them into a big man that addresses this "weakness".

Seriously, say that aloud. Does this make any sense? You're going to trade a known All Star commodity on a cheap contract at his lowest price point with rising value in the future for dice rolls. Just ignoring what the NBA draft is, how it functions, basic math and EV problems - think about how stupid you would have to be to do that.

They didn't wrongly assume that Durant/Westbrook is enough elite perimeter production/impact - because they both are. It's what is built around them.

Except it isn't. I think you're looking at this as if I'm saying Harden is better than Durant + Westbrook. No, what I'm saying is what Harden did as the third perimeter player can't be replaced by Wb+Durant because they're already fulfilling their own duties. That extra Harden did for the team can only be accomplished by playing Durant and WB more minutes with other line ups. Funny enough, Brooks tried this. OKC would get dominated because he had to sit WB and Durant at the same time eventually.

No, Harden would not be an MVP level player with the lack of minutes, touches and experiencing carrying a #1 offensive load on that team. It wouldn't be the most valuable contract, it wouldn't be anywhere near close because it would be a waste of money. You don't pay a 6th man max money when your PG and SF are on max money. It's nonsensical.

He was already at 31 MPG and tops in the league in several categories with a low usage rate. Are you going to tell me the criteria for MVP level production is now based on some arbitrary minutes level? Or that he couldn't sustain that production with higher USG rate? He was carrying the #1 offensive load on OKC at times. Again, I've already posted it but Harden was playing with 4 bench players and dominating other teams in the 2012 RS. It was NO surprise that he was the one who carried OKC and dominated San Antonio in the WCF that year. Literally, you keep making up all these reasons for why he didn't have this level of impact when it was happening right in front of your face that year. BTW - Harden would have been making not even $100 million for 5 years as an elite Win Producer on a contender. That is Stephen Curry level of contract. You keep getting caught up in these silly ideas that don't mean shyt. Who cares if he's a 6th man? He plays 31 MPG and plays vs the other teams starters, dominating without WB and Durant on the floor. You pay that money because he's one of the best players in the league and will only get better.

Kevin Martin was a rental and there's no point mentioning Thabo. And the didn't pay three guys to do the job of 1, Martin picked up the scoring slack and everybody increased their playmaking duties; which helped the team grow and spread the load - in turn moving the ball more.

Look at all the top 10 players in the league, if you were to remove them from their teams -there'd be no one to replace their production too. You can't work like that in this league, you'll never have success. You can't afford to have a security blanket at that price.

Erm, yes OKC did. When the trade was done they were touting PJ3 and Martin as come ups off the Harden trade. To the bolded - uh, yes you can. Especially when you drafted the guy and have a super valuable RFA contract to offer him. You serious?

No he wasn't, you're miscalculating his impact.

Already proved you wrong on this.

Actually it is relevant, we aren't talking about somebody like Bosh, whose PPG dropped playing with Wade and Bron, because he played against starting front courts pretty much every minute he was out there and he was their defensive anchor. And how often did Harden play with the bench (without KD/Russ) against starters?

There wasn't 'many people' saying he was going to be an all time great scorer prior to the 2012 Finals. One or two people you know doesn't equal many people.

Already showed you Harden's numbers w/o KD and Russ.

Many people weren't? Strauss, Pelton, Lowe, the entire APBR community, RealGM, Haralabob, and gambling circles off the fan sites betting boards were all up on Harden before 2012 Finals.

I mean...come on.
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1150270

He didn't play good defense in his role, he was a bad defender, he held his own in the post but awful on rotations, ball-watched and he regularly let his opposite drive by him. Half the reason why he was brought off the bench because his defense was that bad. He did stop the ball, Westbrook and Durant both did too - because all three of them were competing for touches. They had a bottom three pass-rate in the league that season.

You sure? I'm willing to balk on this but I want to see proof. Pretty sure the reason he was brought off the bench was him being the best playmaker on the team allowing him to anchor 4 bench players and Thabo's defense being that good. Harden was not a ball stopper. He wasn't competing for touches with WB or Durant. He was putting up elite offensive #s just fine no matter who was around him without high usage rates. Them having a bottom pass rate /= Harden being a ball stopper. If you are sure of this post Harden centric line ups assist rate vs OKCs as a whole and vs the league. As an FYI Harden jumped from a 12.3 to a 19.8 AR while never using more than 21% of the team's possessions.

I've already made my point clear all throughout this thread (argument is getting quite tedious), so unless you have something new to add there's really not much more we can talk about.

Sure.

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

Well, sure you can. Except this isn't raw PM, but Regularized Adjusted PM which takes past performance into account. Obviously there are still issues with what questions this answers but you said Harden's role had an effect on his impact/supposed star level. RAPM answers that very well because we can address line up issues with Durant and Westbrook. Even raw PM of Harden + bench vs Harden/KD vs Harden/WB will get you somewhere in the ballpark. Good thing 82games tracked lineup data and every Harden/x/x/x/x lineup for OKC had a net positive rating huh?

His role did, because he received less defensive attention than Westbrook and Durant across the entire game, and played a considerable amount of minutes against teams' second units, but most importantly he didn't have the keys to the team. If we're talking purely from a basketball perspective of production/role (and not a popularity contest) no he didn't have the IMPACT of an All-Star player.

RAPM and PM are in essence nonsense metrics and can be easily manipulated if not shown in the right context, especially if there's vast difference in position run-throughs (Thabo to Harden), player role and what lineups the player in question is playing against (clearly Harden's talent level was better than whatever defense and personnel he was facing throughout his tenure as a 6th man in OKC).

Here let's get into numbers:

From the realgm discussion about Harden. This was a few months after gamblers started figuring out how OKCs offense was so ridiculous even though KD was sitting:

Spoiler: April 1st, [B

2012] [/B]

All this explains is that Harden's talent level eclipsed whatever second-units / garbage time lineups OKC were playing during the 25% of the total time that Westbrook and Durant weren't on the court. THIS IS NOT ALL-STAR IMPACT, no matter which way you cut it, because if these four-man combinations playing next to Harden during these measly 12 minutes (which would be end of quarter, start of quarters, in blow outs during which would've strictly been against teams worst lineups) were against starters, the picture would be entirely different.

Except, once again you're just speculating and talking nonsense. There's no such thing as "less defensive attention" for Harden just because he comes off the bench. What you're positing here is that the rest of the league is stupid enough to allow a guy posting historical TS% to just run amok because he doesn't start..

I watched 90%+ of OKC games during that season, my eyes didn't deceive me. How can you possibly have the third-highest offensive load (by quite a considerable margin) and not receive less defensive attention than the two main perimeter players on your team? The league wasn't stupid enough to let him run amok - teams didn't have the personnel to stop him as well as containing Westbrook and Durant. It was clear that teams played by the lesser of two (well in this case three) evils principle.

Across the top eight most-played lineups, Harden only played without Durant and Westbrook on the floor for 134 total minutes across the season, playing with Collison, Cook, Jackson and Mohammed - it's pretty safe to say they weren't playing against teams' starters during the period. In all the other most-played lineups as above, Harden played with Durant and Westbrook both on the court - and you have the nerve to sit there and tell me that he didn't receive less defensive attention playing when teams were more focused on containing the two best perimeter threats for OKC.

This also assumes Brooks just only plays Harden vs bench units which is literally impossible short of him playing only <20 mpg. I mean, what you're saying is so comical and made up I'm 100% sure you really have no clue what was going on with OKC during that 2011-12 season..

I provided FACTUAL PROOF above. When Harden was on the floor he was primarily playing against bench units or when he was playing with the starting lineup - he was playing with both Durant and Westbrook.

Harden was #2 in the league rocking a 66% TS% and 58.2% EFG. Even the crap stats like OWS and individual ORTG had him at 125.3 (#3 in the league) and 7.5 (#5). He was also playing 31 MPG. It was literally impossible for him to put this production up vs only bench players. That's a logical fallacy in itself but furthermore:.

Harden was #2 on the team in Simple Rating and even had + differential in all bench line ups. He was a clear as day All Star.

His production was gained against second units and when playing against starters teams prioritized defending Durant and Westbrook over him. fukk a simple rating and he didn't have All-Star impact -playing against benches and being the an afterthought out on the perimeter (when playing with Westbrook and Durant) and putting up #s doesn't make you an All-Star.

All-Star impact is actually having the keys, or being a co-driver to a team and putting up numbers against other All-Star caliber players.

Actually, many were. You just missed the boat. No idea if you participate in sports gambling or stats but by the Summer of 2012 the biggest name on the scene was James Harden. He was a CLEAR All Star level player at that point. Really, the skepticism started before that season and by January 2012 it was a big debate on if he could sustain a Superstar level, max contract level of play. Everyone was convinced he was an easy All Star at that point.

He definitely had the potential to be an All-Star, but you're in here arguing two different things. I'm not disputing that he didn't have the talent, my point is he was never going to reach that level playing in OKC, as long as Westbrook and Durant were there (and under Brooks' current system)

Already proved it above. But just to further the point:

Spoiler: Harden2011Durant

With Durant

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
78 1351 11.3 8.9 3.3 3.9 2.5 .486 .546

Without Durant

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
81 838 24.6 15.1 9.5 4.7 3.6 .547 .638

Spoiler: Harden2011Westbrook

With Westbrook

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
82 1159 10.4 7.6 3.2 3.8 2.2 .508 .577

Without Westbrook

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%

Spoiler: Harden2012Durant

With Durant

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
62 1420 14.9 9.6 4.7 4.7 3.6 .570 .638

Without Durant

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
62 526 31.2 17.2 12.5 4.7 6.0 .607 .687

Spoiler: Harden2012Westbrook

With Westbrook

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
62 1231 13.7 8.9 4.4 4.5 3.7 .571 .632

Without Westbrook

GP MIN PTS FGA FTA TRB AST eFG% TS%
62 715 29.0 16.3 11.1 4.9 5.2 .600 .684

He did those on 19.5% and 21.6% Usage Rates at 26.7 and 31.4 MPG. That's pretty much the definition of a superstar level of impact. Like I said before - just because YOU didn't know didn't mean others didn't..

And I then disproved your point, here why don't I post it again to refresh your memory -

In the most played 4-man combos, his name doesn't even appear in the top 5, and when it is he's playing alongside Westbrook and Durant.

Only somewhat right. His offensive production was replaceable by Durant, not by the players brought in to replace him. Just by the virtue of having to play 3 players x amount of minutes to equal Harden's production OKC was going to lose out. Even if OKC can't get max production out of him (hint, with 3 stars you rarely will), they would STILL get a ton of value out of him. Also they actually did lose a step. Kevin Martin was OK in OKC but everything else did what? OKCs production was lifted by the fact that WB and Durant were young and got better. Since they could have kept all 3, and Harden's game didn't negatively impact either one then it's ludicrous to even think this way. Lol @ only a 20 game difference. Right.

Not only that, but the wealth of possessions were more equally distributed - they were more efficient in upwards of 90% in every statistical category possible when Harden left. I'm not disputing the fact, that could have still been the case if Harden stayed, the point is they didn't lose a step when he DID leave. It's quite clear that however you're viewing his impact on the team - you're overvaluing it.

Westbrook and Durant were more than capable to pick up the slack combined with what the bench provided.

Which makes 0 sense. Whether those players play on the perimeter or the front court is pretty much irrelevant. You already know what their positions do to their values by virtue of their production in line ups together.

WRONG.

Find me any team in modern NBA history where THREE perimeters were on max contracts on the equivalent of their respective salary caps that had tangible success? Boston and Miami only were successful because they had an equal balance of frontcourt to backcourt. In case you've forgotten basketball is a team sport - you need a balance across the court, this is pretty basic stuff and doesn't even warrant discussion.

He was already at 31 MPG and tops in the league in several categories with a low usage rate. Are you going to tell me the criteria for MVP level production is now based on some arbitrary minutes level? Or that he couldn't sustain that production with higher USG rate?

No, what I am going to tell you is MVP level production/impact is based on playing against starters and not being the third biggest perimeter threat when you do play against quality lineups. Clearly what impact Harden did have wasn't anywhere near a MVP level.

He was carrying the #1 offensive load on OKC at times.

Yeah for only a minute fraction of the game, and it was against shytty lineups. You can't then in turn use that to suggest that all his other production than falls within the same frame.

Again, I've already posted it but Harden was playing with 4 bench players and dominating other teams in the 2012 RS.

Yeah against other benches. Your point?

It was NO surprise that he was the one who carried OKC and dominated San Antonio in the WCF that year. Literally, you keep making up all these reasons for why he didn't have this level of impact when it was happening right in front of your face that year. BTW - Harden would have been making not even $100 million for 5 years as an elite Win Producer on a contender. That is Stephen Curry level of contract. You keep getting caught up in these silly ideas that don't mean shyt. Who cares if he's a 6th man? He plays 31 MPG and plays vs the other teams starters, dominating without WB and Durant on the floor. You pay that money because he's one of the best players in the league and will only get better.

Clearly my evidence proves this wrong.

Already showed you Harden's numbers w/o KD and Russ.

Many people weren't? Strauss, Pelton, Lowe, the entire APBR community, RealGM, Haralabob, and gambling circles off the fan sites betting boards were all up on Harden before 2012 Finals.

I mean...come on.
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1150270

Yeah the numbers where he played against other teams' benches

Show me the people saying he was going to become an all time great scorer, not this list of information without any credible validation of what they said. Really you're gonna post a realgm thread?

You sure? I'm willing to balk on this but I want to see proof. Pretty sure the reason he was brought off the bench was him being the best playmaker on the team allowing him to anchor 4 bench players and Thabo's defense being that good. .

Yeah I already made it clear that was the case, that's why I said half the reason. It wasn't just because he was more capable of anchoring the bench, it was partly due to the fact he was a bad defender.

Harden was not a ball stopper. He wasn't competing for touches with WB or Durant. He was putting up elite offensive #s just fine no matter who was around him without high usage rates..

He was a ball stopper. He had a nice two-man game with Collison but other that, he stopped the ball because Brooks just let the second unit do their thing. He would often only pass the ball if he got into trouble - usually if he couldn't get a 3-pt shot off or a fold in the lane.

 

[duckbutta]

Getting rid of Harden was not that bad still in hind sight.. Brooks horrible coaching, riding with Perkins () and taking too long to develop possible great level talent like Jones and Lamb is what hurt this team..

I know Perry had a few good games earlier this year when somebody had to shoot the ball with westbrook being out or not being crazy enough to shoot the ball literally every time...

If either one of these dudes are in the league in the next 5 years I would be shocked...

Though brooks definitely has something to do with that

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

First this dumb fakkit says OKC"s title window has closed -

It's evident their title window has closed Russy is most likely a Laker and KD will seriously consider the Wizards or a big market team. Will they be remembered for having the GOAT consecutive draft picks (KD, Russy, Green, Harden, Ibaka, Jackson, Stevens)? Will we look back at the relocation to a much smaller market OKC as to why they couldn't keep there draft picks? Will we blame Brooks for his lack of coaching? Will it be the Injuries we talk about the most?

Now he says that OKC beating the #1 team in the league is a foregone conclusion -

http://www.thecoli.com/threads/i-do...n-beat-okc-in-the-first-round-anymore.297693/

@No..Money..Mo..Problems make up your mind you fakkit

 

[jaguar paw]

I've been thinking about this ALOT lately.

With a healthy core of Russ, KD, Serge, and Kanter they could become the next legit dynasty. That window is far from closed.

They've got perimeter defenders, shooters, bigs that hustle. They've got it all except the right coach and luck with health.

Presti has to figure out a way to get value of some sort out of Waiters/Lamb/PJ3.

I think if KD or Russ left they would look back at it as monumental mistake when their careers are over.

 

[Microfracture]

I've been thinking about this ALOT lately.

With a healthy core of Russ, KD, Serge, and Kanter they could become the next legit dynasty. That window is far from closed.

They've got perimeter defenders, shooters, bigs that hustle. They've got it all except the right coach and luck with health.

Presti has to figure out a way to get value of some sort out of Waiters/Lamb/PJ3.

I think if KD or Russ left they would look back at it as monumental mistake when their careers are over.

Agree they should both stay. Serge has to be the rim protector he used to be for it to work with Kanter. When everyone is healthy they lowkey have a deep bench and only have to make a few tweaks to get where they need to be.

Still shouldn't have traded Harden

 

[jaguar paw]

Agree they should both stay. Serge has to be the rim protector he used to be for it to work with Kanter. When everyone is healthy they lowkey have a deep bench and only have to make a few tweaks to get where they need to be.

Still shouldn't have traded Harden

Completely agree about Harden but they have to move on from that.

I do wonder with Harden if he would've accepted his 3rd tier role as his game grew. Would he be happy with that?

He seems to be LOVING being the man in Houston.

 

[Loose]

Completely agree about Harden but they have to move on from that.

I do wonder with Harden if he would've accepted his 3rd tier role as his game grew. Would he be happy with that?

He seems to be LOVING being the man in Houston.

doubt it, I think perkins said recently harden needed his own team or something like that. also they were apparently arguing over possessions in the finals. too many egos.