I don't know shyt about stock(China halts trading)

[BelowTheMasonDixon]

Just saw it on one of the doom and gloom conspiracy sites I frequent. And realized that while these a$$holes are probably wrong. I really don't know shyt about the market, trades, or anything that's related to stocks. Can anyone suggest a book or a training module. Anything so I can at least at the VERY least get a fukking clue.

 

[Domingo Halliburton]

Investopedia has some good tutorials

I think the first page of the stock market thread has a video too

China is a whole other animal though

 

[Reginald Noble]

China is a whole other animal though

What is your opinion on China right now purely in the economic sense?

I believe they have many avenues they can take to get out of the conundrum they are in which involves:

• Real Estate Bubble
• Impending Social Crisis on Gender imbalance
• Rapid wage inflation but only in certain sectors and heavily skewed towards cities and upper class - This needs to be spread out more evenly, the problem is it's a skills issue. The Chinese don't have advanced techniques or standards in manufacturing yet to be able to produce higher paying middle class jobs. They need non-monetary FDI if you will, which involves importing foreign skilled labor.
• Obviously Big Govt which is harming small business growth outside of major cities which is a primary marker of a mature economy

But right now the type of governmental regulation and standards being enforced is hampering progress. I think the attempt to transition Hong Kong closer to the mainland financially is a big mistake, in the event of fallout the Chinese elite need a closer safe haven - Right now a big problem is the Chinese elite are leaving China's sphere of influence entirely going to America, UK and other countries and that wealth is being lost to the Chinese people. They are investing in NY real estate etc.

Once all the Chinese elite that built wealth there in the last 25 years leave and only the noveau riche remain, there will be great problems ahead...

What they have working in their favor is compared to America's 1%, China has an upper class of 10% which is monumental buying power. The problem therefore is how to keep them in China to continue fueling domestic demand.

 

[Domingo Halliburton]

What is your opinion on China right now purely in the economic sense?

I believe they have many avenues they can take to get out of the conundrum they are in which involves:

• Real Estate Bubble
• Impending Social Crisis on Gender imbalance
• Rapid wage inflation but only in certain sectors and heavily skewed towards cities and upper class - This needs to be spread out more evenly, the problem is it's a skills issue. The Chinese don't have advanced techniques or standards in manufacturing yet to be able to produce higher paying middle class jobs. They need non-monetary FDI if you will, which involves importing foreign skilled labor.
• Obviously Big Govt which is harming small business growth outside of major cities which is a primary marker of a mature economy

But right now the type of governmental regulation and standards being enforced is hampering progress. I think the attempt to transition Hong Kong closer to the mainland financially is a big mistake, in the event of fallout the Chinese elite need a closer safe haven - Right now a big problem is the Chinese elite are leaving China's sphere of influence entirely going to America, UK and other countries and that wealth is being lost to the Chinese people. They are investing in NY real estate etc.

Once all the Chinese elite that built wealth there in the last 25 years leave and only the noveau riche remain, there will be great problems ahead...

What they have working in their favor is compared to America's 1%, China has an upper class of 10% which is monumental buying power. The problem therefore is how to keep them in China to continue fueling domestic demand.

I agree with pretty much everything you've said.

I think their economic expansion the last few years has been driven by huge amounts (bigger than any QE done in any other country) of debt and has created a lot of state and shadow banking investment that is misallocated. They require a lot of economic growth to keep up with this debt and its not going to happen over the next few years. So valuations are stretched and a lot of projects are not economically feasible. I think you're seeing that with some of the reactions by their stock market.

Another point you had is the real estate. I think they need to prop up their property bubble to sustain their local municipalities. I would say this is more important than their equity markets.

One way they are trying to prop up their economy is by devaluing the yuan. As you can see on Monday and now today, it is sending shockwaves through not only their system but the global financial system. On top of that, this devaluation just sends more money overseas to invest in things like NY real estate, etc.

What solution is there to a lot of this? I'm not sure, but hopefully they find a way to have a "soft landing" out of it.