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Insiders: Kasich could win a contested convention
Insiders: Kasich could win a contested convention
Insiders: Kasich could win a contested convention
In the event of a contested Republican convention this summer, John Kasich is the candidate most acceptable to GOP delegates.
That’s according to members of The POLITICO Caucus – a panel of political insiders in seven battleground states – who said Kasich would be the most palatable of the three remaining Republican presidential candidates in a contested convention, despite the fact the Ohio governor is last in delegates and the only one mathematically eliminated from clinching a majority before the July convention.
The verdict was hardly unanimous: Only a 45-percent plurality of GOP insiders said Kasich was most acceptable, with the others divided between Ted Cruz (33 percent) and Donald Trump (22 percent).
But insiders said Kasich has alienated fewer Republicans, and his campaign – he has thus far declined to participate in the personal back-and-forth that has defined much of the Republican race – has left him better positioned to court delegates who are supporting, or bound to, other candidates.
“John is the only candidate that is left on the stage that has crossover appeal to all factions of the party,” added a New Hampshire Republican. “The way he has conducted himself in this election has offered him the opportunity to be an acceptable choice for the delegates. Everyone else will be carrying deep battle scars into Cleveland. John will be able to bring different factions together where others can't.”
“John Kasich has worked hard not to alienate the other candidates and their supporters by remaining fairly positive during the primary portion of the campaign,” said a Virginia Republican, who like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “I think there is a better chance of the most conservative Republicans accepting Kasich than there is of the more moderate candidates accepting either Trump or Cruz.”
Others pointed to Kasich’s electability in the fall and insisted GOP delegates would pick a candidate who can win.
"Kasich appeals to a larger cross-section of Americans, making him the better general election candidate," said a Florida Republican. "Obviously, his high positives in Ohio also play a part of his political acceptability for Republicans, many of whom want a presidential win at almost any cost."
But Kasich’s appeal on the convention floor might have more to do with the nature of the delegate pool than with Kasich himself.
“Delegates tend to come from the donor class/establishment wing of the GOP,” an Iowa Republican pointed out in choosing Kasich, adding that most delegates are “older party regulars.”
Some insiders disagreed – arguing Cruz is the more viable anti-Trump candidate because he’s more acceptable to conservatives.
One Iowa Republican said Cruz’s team was working diligently to get friendly delegates appointed in the states, which would give him an edge after some delegates become unbound after the first ballot.
“Cruz has established a nationwide ground game and is working to pack delegate halls as we speak,” said an Iowa Republican. “Kasich doesn't have the infrastructure, and Trump is hoping for momentum, numbers and sheer force to gain the nomination. The Cruz people aren't budging. Grab the popcorn.”
Cruz “has earned the right to be the guy if it comes down to a brokered convention,” added a North Carolina Republican. “He's played everywhere, not just in in one or three sandboxes of his choosing. Kasich hasn't.”
And a New Hampshire Republican pointed out that Cruz would likely play better with Trump supporters – who would balk if Trump came to Cleveland with a plurality of the delegates but was thwarted on the convention floor.
“While Kasich would be the preference of the Establishment,” the New Hampshire Republican said, “Cruz is the one person who could leave the Trump delegates not completely irate.”
As for Trump, the roughly one-in-five insiders who said he’d be the most acceptable were comprised of a mix of insiders who thought Trump was on pace to secure, if not a majority of delegates, than close to it – and those who think Trump is the best of a number of bad options for the GOP.
“He has won fair and square,” said a North Carolina Republican. “During the process he has demonstrated how he will turn Hillary into chopped liver.”
“The appealing thing about Trump is that throughout the primary process he has shown that we can turn out voters in urban and rural areas,” added an Iowa Republican. “He has broad appeal despite the loud vocal minority of Republicans that fund him unacceptable.”
A number of GOP insiders also warned of the risks of not giving Trump the nomination if we wins the most delegates.
“If Trump has more delegates than anyone else and has won the most states, the GOP would be incite a grassroots revolt if somebody else was nominated,” a New Hampshire Republican said, adding, “And I'm not a Trump lover!”
Democrats aren’t demanding that Bernie Sanders end his campaign, but that time could be coming soon.
Asked whether it is time for Sanders to exit the race after losing five states on Tuesday, 59 percent of Democratic insiders – on the whole, a pro-Clinton group – said yes, while the other 41 percent said Sanders should continue.
But the Sanders-should-stay-in contingent was split between those who believe he should continue to advance his issues and build his profile – and those who think he should be preparing a dignified exit.
“I know the arguments: he forces Hillary to spend precious cash that she could be saving for the summer and fall. To a certain extent, that's true,” said a Nevada Democrat. “However, you can't discount the organization he has built, and he should get to soldier on a little longer. He does need to change his tone. He should know by now he won't be the nominee. He unleashed some withering attacks on Hillary, and they failed. It's time for him to start prepping his supporters to move into [Clinton’s] column for the fall campaign.”
Some Democrats said Sanders’ continued campaign makes it more likely the party’s candidates remain in the news, as the media focus on the chaotic Republican race.
“I don't feel it is time for Bernie to end his campaign unless his goal is to fracture the Democratic Party,” said an Ohio Democrat. "Two messengers will keep the Democrats in the news. Even at that, the media seems focused on the right side of the aisle. It is time for Bernie to start talking about Democratic values and supporting the nominee, no matter who that is. Let's see if he is truly dedicated to the Democrats.”
Other insiders cautioned the Clinton forces against putting pressure on Sanders to exit the race – especially given Clinton’s insistence on playing out the string against Barack Obama in 2008.
“Hillary stayed in until the convention,” said a Nevada Democrat. “It's completely unfair and hypocritical for her team to try and push Sanders out now.”
But the majority of Democrats said it was time for Sanders to wrap up his campaign and allow Clinton to focus on preparing for the general election.
“It is time for him to land his flying unicorn, as he has no path,” a Florida Democrat jabbed. “Clinton needs to be focused on organizing in battleground states, not chasing Bernie around places like South Dakota.”
And one New Hampshire Democrat said Sanders’ team was doing the Vermont senator and his causes a disservice by insisting their candidate can still win the nomination.
“It isn't fair to the small donors who have paid for this campaign to deceive them into giving more money by telling them Bernie can still win,” said the Democrat.
That sentiment was echoed by a Virginia Republican, who echoed John Kerry’s plea when the future senator and secretary of state returned from Vietnam: “How do you ask one more misguided millennial to cast the last vote for a mistake?”
at the stuff Democrats had to say in the article.
Trump has this thing on lock.
kaitch ain't even the most popular Republican candidate...
