Jeb Bush’s Stagnation in Polls Worries Donors

[Street Knowledge]

Jeb Bush’s Stagnation in Polls Worries Donors

GOOSE LAKE, Iowa— Jeb Bush is grinding out his presidential bid in small towns across this early-voting state, backed by one of the largest campaign staffs and two months of TV ads.

The result: He’s a blip in Republican primary polls.

A $30 million television blitz by the super PAC supporting his campaign, Right to Rise—the biggest investment by a single entity in the 2016 race—has barely registered nationwide or in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the states leading the nominating battle. The latest Quinnipiac University poll pegged his Iowa support at just 4%.

That poll and others are defying predictions by Mr. Bush’s allies that after the terrorist attacks in Paris, voters would gravitate toward the policy-driven former Florida governor and away from businessman Donald Trump, prompting a fresh round of hand-wringing and second-guessing.

“We know that Gov. Bush is the adult in the room and the one with a proven record, but unfortunately the country doesn’t seem to care,” said Mike Fernandez, a Miami billionaire who donated more than $3 million to Right to Rise and visited Iowa and other states to see Mr. Bush’s campaign. “The reality is that after a few months, if you see a strategy is not responding, you need to adjust it.”

Mr. Bush has made tweaks rather than wholesale changes. He is doing more TV interviews and has eased up on criticizing his protégé-turned-rival, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, to focus his barbs on Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

Since the violence in Paris, the super PAC’s ads plugging Mr. Bush’s gubernatorial record have been replaced by spots promoting his hawkish foreign policy. On Tuesday, his campaign began airing $600,000 in new ads in New Hampshire in which a Medal of Honor recipient says, in a dig at Mr. Trump’s TV career, “This is no reality show. This is serious business.”

Some voters who attended Mr. Bush’s recent events in Iowa suggested there isn’t much he can do to boost his appeal. The former governor and kin to two former presidents is running at the wrong time, they said, because his profile doesn’t match the angry mood of the electorate. Earlier this year, Mr. Bush said he would run a “joyful” campaign, before speaking out against Mr. Trump.

“I just don’t think this is his year,” said retired nurse Sharon Gilbert, though she praised Mr. Bush’s intellect and leadership. “We need new blood to beat Hillary Clinton. It’s nothing personal.”

 

[Street Knowledge]

Mr. Bush’s inability to gain traction has been part of an unpredictable and volatile primary race. He is still relying on his early assumption that fundraising prowess, endorsements from elected officials and governing experience are what matters, despite Mr. Trump’s success without any of those assets.

“Nobody thought that Trump would be even spoken about by Thanksgiving, and nobody thought thoughtful policy positions would be discarded in favor of Jerry Springer-like put-down lines,” said Jim Towey, a family friend who worked for Mr. Bush’s brother, President George W. Bush.

On Monday, the Bush campaign circulated a list of fundraisers that mostly included previously announced supporters. Earlier, the campaign released an online video highlighting Mr. Bush’s leadership as governor during Hurricane Ivan—in 2004.

“People just need to learn more about him and then they will understand that he’s a quality candidate that could walk into the Oval Office on day one,” said Iowa-based political consultant David Oman.

At a gathering of about 350 Republican activists in Goose Lake, fliers listing Mr. Bush’s accomplishments as governor littered the tables in the banquet hall. The message didn’t take for some.

“I don’t care what he did in Florida, though it’s admirable,” said Jim McGraw, vice president of a local school district, looking at the flier. “His message should be the direction he wants to take the country.”

Some people at the event said Mr. Bush suffered in comparison to a more colorful rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who fired up a crowd in nearby Clinton earlier that day.

“It would have been better if Bush had gone first,” said GOP activist Sue Tugana, who attended both appearances. “Bush is a polished politician. Cruz is more of a rabble rouser, and I am looking for someone who will shake things up.”

Mr. Bush has sought to reassure uneasy donors by pointing out that in the most recent presidential race, several candidates surpassed Mitt Romneyin the polls before he locked down the nomination. Mr. Romney, however, didn’t fall into the single digits, where Mr. Bush appears stuck.

“Our investments are long-term and focused on helping Jeb achieve a general election victory in November 2016. We measure ourselves by that goal alone,” said Right to Rise spokesman Paul Lindsay.

Major donors to Right to Rise said they expect the super PAC to raise $20 million to $30 million in the second half of 2015. On Thursday, C. Boyden Gray, who served as White House counsel for Mr. Bush’s father, President George H.W. Bush, is hosting a campaign fundraiser at his Washington, D.C. home, among 16 scheduled fundraisers over nine days in 13 cities this month.

 

[the cac mamba]

such a swagless campaign

 

[Reginald Noble]

Goose Lake

 

[Robbie3000]

The man is too low energy to succeed in these GOP streets.

 

[JahFocus CS]

Just give it up already. #TrumpSet bodied this dude and Rubio spit on his grave by sonning him in the debate when Bush tried to come at him.

 

[No1]

The man is too low energy to succeed in these GOP streets.

It is actually a win for democracy. Dude had every donor lined up before the election and is still losing. Granted, Trump can fund his own campaign.