Fernandez best since Gooden
Jose Fernandez is the best 20-year-old pitcher in a generation
Updated: August 10, 2013, 9:24 AM ET
By Dave Cameron | ESPN Insider
Steve Mitchell/Getty ImagesJose Fernandez is having a better age-20 season than Fernando Valenzuela did in 1981.
Back in 1981, the Dodgers had a young pitcher named Fernando Valenzuela, who began the season as part of the team's rotation despite being just 20 years old. He proceeded to take the sport by storm. Despite being an untested rookie, he led the majors in innings pitched, complete games, shutouts and strikeouts. He was an All-Star, won rookie of the year and the Cy Young Award while finishing fifth in the MVP race. The hysteria around him grew so large that it earned the nickname "Fernandomania."
Now, 32 years later, it's happening again; but because of the anonymity of the 2013 Marlins, it's happening in relative obscurity. Their young ace, Jose Fernandez, deserves a bright spotlight, because he's having a better age-20 season than Fernando Valenzuela did in 1981. In fact, when we look at 20-year-old pitchers over the last 50 years, Fernandez's 2013 season is near the very top.
Age-20 pitchers who threw 120+ innings
Year Pitcher ERA- FIP-
1985 Dwight Gooden 44 59
2013 Jose Fernandez 69 75
1981 Fernando Valenzuela 73 74
1977 Dave Rozema 74 94
1975 Dennis Eckersley 75 97
To the right is a table of all starting pitchers in the last 50 years who threw at least 120 innings in their age-20 season, along with their ERA- and FIP-. These numbers are just their respective ERA or FIP relative to the league average in that season, allowing us to better compare pitchers from different offensive eras. Just like with ERA, lower is better, so an ERA- or FIP- of 50 would mean that their ERA or FIP was exactly half of the league average that year.
By ERA-, Fernandez has been better than every 20-year-old pitcher since 1964 not named Dwight Gooden. Gooden, of course, had one of the greatest pitching seasons of all time. He set a standard that is unlikely to ever be matched. Coming in second to Gooden's 1985 season is nothing to be ashamed of. The fact that Fernandez is keeping company with the likes of Gooden and Valenzuela is a testament to how good he has been this year.
He's getting better as the year goes on. Fernandez was fantastic in the first half, but since the All-Star break, he's been on another level. In four starts, he's allowed a grand total of six runs over 28 innings and has a sparkling 1.92 ERA, and it hasn't come through spectacular defensive support from his teammates. Over those same four starts, Fernandez has racked up 40 strikeouts against just seven walks and a single home run.
In fact, if we focus on the three things a pitcher can best control -- walks, strikeouts, and home runs -- we can see how much better Fernandez has been this year compared to other recent phenoms in their age-20 seasons.
Fernandez has a FIP- of 75, meaning that he's been 25 percent better than the league average based on his walk rate, strikeout rate and home run rate. In 2000, Rick Ankiel caught the world by storm with an amazing debut, but his FIP- that year was 88, nowhere near Fernandez's 2013 mark. The next year, CC Sabathia came up on the scene with a 95 FIP-. In 2004, Zack Greinke put up a 99 FIP-. In 2006, Felix Hernandez posted a FIP- of 90.
Since "Fernandomania" back in 1981, only Valenzula, Gooden and now Fernandez have posted a FIP- below Ankiel's 88, and like the other two, Fernandez is blowing that out of the water. The best pitchers in the game today weren't anywhere near as good as Fernandez has been. For reference, Fernandez's FIP- of 75 is almost a near match for the 73 FIP- that Justin Verlander posted in 2011, the year he won both the AL Cy Young and MVP awards.
Need more evidence of just how incredible Fernandez's accomplishments are at this age? Okay, how about this one. Matt Harvey has been perhaps the best non-Clayton Kershaw pitcher in baseball this year, and has rightfully garnered significant attention for his breakout season. When Matt Harvey was 20 years old, he posted a 5.40 ERA for the University of North Carolina. Fernandez is destroying major league hitters at the same point where Harvey was struggling against college amateurs.
Put Fernandez on virtually any other team in baseball -- OK, maybe not the Astros -- and he is the talk of the sport. However, the Marlins organization isn't held in the highest esteem after yet another offseason of dumping salary. Most of the talk about Fernandez's team centers around when they'll trade Giancarlo Stanton. But if we'd put down the trade rumors long enough to watch the Marlins play, we'd find that perhaps their star attraction is no longer the right fielder who hits the ball 500 feet. The Marlins still have Giancarlo Stanton, but this might just be Jose Fernandez's team now.
Jose Fernandez is the best 20-year-old pitcher in a generation
Updated: August 10, 2013, 9:24 AM ET
By Dave Cameron | ESPN Insider
Steve Mitchell/Getty ImagesJose Fernandez is having a better age-20 season than Fernando Valenzuela did in 1981.
Back in 1981, the Dodgers had a young pitcher named Fernando Valenzuela, who began the season as part of the team's rotation despite being just 20 years old. He proceeded to take the sport by storm. Despite being an untested rookie, he led the majors in innings pitched, complete games, shutouts and strikeouts. He was an All-Star, won rookie of the year and the Cy Young Award while finishing fifth in the MVP race. The hysteria around him grew so large that it earned the nickname "Fernandomania."
Now, 32 years later, it's happening again; but because of the anonymity of the 2013 Marlins, it's happening in relative obscurity. Their young ace, Jose Fernandez, deserves a bright spotlight, because he's having a better age-20 season than Fernando Valenzuela did in 1981. In fact, when we look at 20-year-old pitchers over the last 50 years, Fernandez's 2013 season is near the very top.
Age-20 pitchers who threw 120+ innings
Year Pitcher ERA- FIP-
1985 Dwight Gooden 44 59
2013 Jose Fernandez 69 75
1981 Fernando Valenzuela 73 74
1977 Dave Rozema 74 94
1975 Dennis Eckersley 75 97
To the right is a table of all starting pitchers in the last 50 years who threw at least 120 innings in their age-20 season, along with their ERA- and FIP-. These numbers are just their respective ERA or FIP relative to the league average in that season, allowing us to better compare pitchers from different offensive eras. Just like with ERA, lower is better, so an ERA- or FIP- of 50 would mean that their ERA or FIP was exactly half of the league average that year.
By ERA-, Fernandez has been better than every 20-year-old pitcher since 1964 not named Dwight Gooden. Gooden, of course, had one of the greatest pitching seasons of all time. He set a standard that is unlikely to ever be matched. Coming in second to Gooden's 1985 season is nothing to be ashamed of. The fact that Fernandez is keeping company with the likes of Gooden and Valenzuela is a testament to how good he has been this year.
He's getting better as the year goes on. Fernandez was fantastic in the first half, but since the All-Star break, he's been on another level. In four starts, he's allowed a grand total of six runs over 28 innings and has a sparkling 1.92 ERA, and it hasn't come through spectacular defensive support from his teammates. Over those same four starts, Fernandez has racked up 40 strikeouts against just seven walks and a single home run.
In fact, if we focus on the three things a pitcher can best control -- walks, strikeouts, and home runs -- we can see how much better Fernandez has been this year compared to other recent phenoms in their age-20 seasons.
Fernandez has a FIP- of 75, meaning that he's been 25 percent better than the league average based on his walk rate, strikeout rate and home run rate. In 2000, Rick Ankiel caught the world by storm with an amazing debut, but his FIP- that year was 88, nowhere near Fernandez's 2013 mark. The next year, CC Sabathia came up on the scene with a 95 FIP-. In 2004, Zack Greinke put up a 99 FIP-. In 2006, Felix Hernandez posted a FIP- of 90.
Since "Fernandomania" back in 1981, only Valenzula, Gooden and now Fernandez have posted a FIP- below Ankiel's 88, and like the other two, Fernandez is blowing that out of the water. The best pitchers in the game today weren't anywhere near as good as Fernandez has been. For reference, Fernandez's FIP- of 75 is almost a near match for the 73 FIP- that Justin Verlander posted in 2011, the year he won both the AL Cy Young and MVP awards.
Need more evidence of just how incredible Fernandez's accomplishments are at this age? Okay, how about this one. Matt Harvey has been perhaps the best non-Clayton Kershaw pitcher in baseball this year, and has rightfully garnered significant attention for his breakout season. When Matt Harvey was 20 years old, he posted a 5.40 ERA for the University of North Carolina. Fernandez is destroying major league hitters at the same point where Harvey was struggling against college amateurs.
Put Fernandez on virtually any other team in baseball -- OK, maybe not the Astros -- and he is the talk of the sport. However, the Marlins organization isn't held in the highest esteem after yet another offseason of dumping salary. Most of the talk about Fernandez's team centers around when they'll trade Giancarlo Stanton. But if we'd put down the trade rumors long enough to watch the Marlins play, we'd find that perhaps their star attraction is no longer the right fielder who hits the ball 500 feet. The Marlins still have Giancarlo Stanton, but this might just be Jose Fernandez's team now.