Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri Is Back Home - Takes Back Resignation

thatrapsfan

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BEIRUT, Lebanon — Saad Hariri of Lebanon pulled back on Wednesday from his resignation as prime minister, another surprise move that seemed to bring to a close a three-week international drama and to stem the threat of new political turmoil in the country.

Mr. Hariri, speaking from the Presidential Palace in Lebanon during celebrations of the country’s Independence Day, said he had agreed to delay his resignation to allow for dialogue with other political leaders about the relations with the rest of the region.

Mr. Hariri had announced his resignation suddenly from the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on Nov. 4, saying that he had fled an assassination plot. He also warned that Iran was behind unrest in the region and said that Tehran’s “hands” would be “cut off.”

His abrupt departure from Lebanon, uncharacteristically direct language, and the fact that he did not inform even his closest aides of his intention to resign convinced many Lebanese, as well as Western diplomats, that Saudi Arabia had forced Mr. Hariri to announce his resignation. The moved appeared to be an effort to try to isolate Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia and political party, by collapsing the government it participates in with Mr. Hariri.


The machinations were widely seen as part of the increasingly tense rivalry between Saudi Arabia, a Sunni Arab kingdom, and Iran, which is majority Shiite Muslim, that has been playing out across much of the Middle East.


A television interview with Mr. Hariri in Riyadh in which he denied that he had been forced to quit — and during which he appeared tired and scowled at a mysterious person onscreen who was apparently trying to get his attention — only broadened speculation that he was being held against his will.

After brief visits to France, Egypt and Cyprus in recent days, Mr. Hariri returned to Beirut, the Lebanese capital, late Tuesday and prayed at the tomb of his father, Rafik Hariri, a former prime minister who was killed in a truck bombing in Beirut in 2005.

On Wednesday, Mr. Hariri said he had tendered his resignation to President Michel Aoun, who had asked him to hold off to allow for dialogue about its reasons. Mr. Hariri said he had agreed to the request.



“I confirm my complete commitment to cooperation with his excellency the president,” Mr. Hariri said. He added that he sought to “protect” Lebanon from “the surrounding wars and fires and all their ramifications.”

The talks would address “divisive issues and their effects on Lebanon’s relations with the Arab brothers,” he said, without providing further detail.

No questions were allowed from journalists at the announcement. It was unclear what form the dialogue would take or when it would begin.

Hezbollah’s activities in the region are contentious in Lebanon, a relatively small country with a complicated, sect-based political system that is heavily influenced by foreign powers.

Mr. Aoun, a Maronite Christian, is an ally of Hezbollah domestically, and his party does not generally speak out against Hezbollah’s activities outside of Lebanon. Mr. Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, leads a movement that has opposed the foreign military expeditions of Hezbollah, a Shiite grouping.

Saudi Arabia considers Iran, and its allies like Hezbollah, the greatest threat to the region’s stability. Mr. Hariri holds dual Saudi-Lebanese citizenship and has longstanding political and economic ties to the kingdom.

Saad Hariri Steps Back From Resignation in Lebanon

 

Trajan

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Ridiculous "plan" to cause turmoil in Lebanon by MBS backfired. Strong arming everything seems to be his go to method. Abbas...Hariri....Hadi. He completely by-passed the facade of Hariri being a sovereign PM and humiliated him (and by extension Lebanon).

Hezbollah side-stepped his trap nicely.
 

Jatt

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I wonder what Hariri is really thinking.

With the Saudis on paper.
Not pushing hard enough for them against Hezbollah.
Gets kidnapped by Saudis.
Comes back and all is the same?

I guess it may come clear in a couple months, but as of now I am pretty confused. Maybe he actually just wants a better Lebanon
 

thatrapsfan

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Ridiculous "plan" to cause turmoil in Lebanon by MBS backfired. Strong arming everything seems to be his go to method. Abbas...Hariri....Hadi. He completely by-passed the facade of Hariri being a sovereign PM and humiliated him (and by extension Lebanon).

Hezbollah side-stepped his trap nicely.

The plan did backfire as far as the Saudis objectives go. But I think Hariris opponents are exaggerating the extent to which this humiliated him. A lot of their predictions have not come to fore with his return. They claimed hes still being blackmailed and cant really come back etc. But he's back and it appears he will continue to govern. If anything that shows he's more resilient than they predicted.

Its not a secret that the Saudis have major leverage over him, but is this really exceptional in Lebanon? Are his opponents really that different? Will Hezb ever diverge with Iran on foreign policy? Its come to the point of where you see Assadists, whos President cant even travel anywhere without Russian protection talking about sovereignty etc and its the pot calling the kettle black.
 

Trajan

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The plan did backfire as far as the Saudis objectives go. But I think Hariris opponents are exaggerating the extent to which this humiliated him. A lot of their predictions have not come to fore with his return. They claimed hes still being blackmailed and cant really come back etc. But he's back and it appears he will continue to govern. If anything that shows he's more resilient than they predicted.

Its not a secret that the Saudis have major leverage over him, but is this really exceptional in Lebanon? Are his opponents really that different? Will Hezb ever diverge with Iran on foreign policy? Its come to the point of where you see Assadists, whos President cant even travel anywhere without Russian protection talking about sovereignty etc and its the pot calling the kettle black.

I hear that...they'll obviously use it for political point scoring. I'm not saying the Shia factions are completely free...I'm saying they move better. And while the Saudis obviously have major leverage over Hariri, it was hitherto exercised more discreetly. Which is why I said MBS discarded the facade of sovereignty. Regardless of the factionalism in Lebanon, the brazenness of the Saudis seemed to annoy even the Sunnis who normally wave pictures of King Salman.

Him coming back to govern just seems like Saudis backing down rather than resilience on Hariri's part. He couldn't stay in Riyadh indefinitely while rumours were swirling that he was being held hostage. Saudis tried to initially disprove that by having him fly to the UAE to meet with the crown prince of Abu Dhabi...lol.

Also looks like Macron may have pulled strings behind the scenes. He flew in for an unscheduled meeting with MBS when the story broke and reportedly called Trump to holla at MBS.
 

thatrapsfan

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I hear that...they'll obviously use it for political point scoring. I'm not saying the Shia factions are completely free...I'm saying they move better. And while the Saudis obviously have major leverage over Hariri, it was hitherto exercised more discreetly. Which is why I said MBS discarded the facade of sovereignty. Regardless of the factionalism in Lebanon, the brazenness of the Saudis seemed to annoy even the Sunnis who normally wave pictures of King Salman.

Him coming back to govern just seems like Saudis backing down rather than resilience on Hariri's part. He couldn't stay in Riyadh indefinitely while rumours were swirling that he was being held hostage. Saudis tried to initially disprove that by having him fly to the UAE to meet with the crown prince of Abu Dhabi...lol.

Also looks like Macron may have pulled strings behind the scenes. He flew in for an unscheduled meeting with MBS when the story broke and reportedly called Trump to holla at MBS.

Definitely in agreement that Iran and its proxies achieve their goals better than Saudi.

I just diverge on whether this has weakened Hariri in Lebanon and whether its humiliated him as his opponents keep insisting. I think this crisis has entrenched his popularity among his own supporters and made clear how indispensable he is to a functioning Lebanese Government. The sort of the rally the flag effect Saudis set off among many Lebanese around Hariri, has done wonders for his own popularity, and his also asserted the supporter he has across the international spectrum ( you m mentioned Macron...even the State Department made clear theyd like to see him back). As much the Hezb/Aoun side of the political scene in Lebanon would like to mock him, they cannot govern without his cooperation. Aoun literally only became President because Hariri finally agreed to a deal. To me its hard to argue Hariri is a humiliated, powerless figure after a wide array of actors in his own country and outside of it endorsed his return to Government. While this is likely not good for Saudi's leverage over him, whats bad for Saudi isnt necessarily whats bad for Hariri.
 

Trajan

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Definitely in agreement that Iran and its proxies achieve their goals better than Saudi.

I just diverge on whether this has weakened Hariri in Lebanon and whether its humiliated him as his opponents keep insisting. I think this crisis has entrenched his popularity among his own supporters and made clear how indispensable he is to a functioning Lebanese Government. The sort of the rally the flag effect Saudis set off among many Lebanese around Hariri, has done wonders for his own popularity, and his also asserted the supporter he has across the international spectrum ( you m mentioned Macron...even the State Department made clear theyd like to see him back). As much the Hezb/Aoun side of the political scene in Lebanon would like to mock him, they cannot govern without his cooperation. Aoun literally only became President because Hariri finally agreed to a deal. To me its hard to argue Hariri is a humiliated, powerless figure after a wide array of actors in his own country and outside of it endorsed his return to Government. While this is likely not good for Saudi's leverage over him, whats bad for Saudi isnt necessarily whats bad for Hariri.


Oh for sure. I agree 100%.

His timing couldn't be better. Dude came back on Lebanese independence day

Hariri-AFP_0.jpg


Hariri.jpg



It's like Farmajo in 2011. His forced resignation at the hands of the Ugandans did wonders for his popularity.
 

Cynic

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Trump, Kim Jung, Mugabe, Saudi, Venezula now this ...

Fukkery overload :wow:
 

ZoeGod

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Ridiculous "plan" to cause turmoil in Lebanon by MBS backfired. Strong arming everything seems to be his go to method. Abbas...Hariri....Hadi. He completely by-passed the facade of Hariri being a sovereign PM and humiliated him (and by extension Lebanon).

Hezbollah side-stepped his trap nicely.
MBS has failed in many of his foreign policy forays. His inexperience shows. And it does not bode well for him in the future. Seriously what did they gain from the Hariri fiasco?
 

African Peasant

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MBS has failed in many of his foreign policy forays. His inexperience shows. And it does not bode well for him in the future. Seriously what did they gain from the Hariri fiasco?

Yep. His foreign policy is filled with failures and semi failures : Yemen, Syria and now Lebanon.
 

African Peasant

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I hear that...they'll obviously use it for political point scoring. I'm not saying the Shia factions are completely free...I'm saying they move better. And while the Saudis obviously have major leverage over Hariri, it was hitherto exercised more discreetly. Which is why I said MBS discarded the facade of sovereignty. Regardless of the factionalism in Lebanon, the brazenness of the Saudis seemed to annoy even the Sunnis who normally wave pictures of King Salman.

Him coming back to govern just seems like Saudis backing down rather than resilience on Hariri's part. He couldn't stay in Riyadh indefinitely while rumours were swirling that he was being held hostage. Saudis tried to initially disprove that by having him fly to the UAE to meet with the crown prince of Abu Dhabi...lol.

Also looks like Macron may have pulled strings behind the scenes. He flew in for an unscheduled meeting with MBS when the story broke and reportedly called Trump to holla at MBS.

Yep. The French establishment always had deep ties with the Hariri's. Since the father. Jacques Chirac lives or used to live in own of their home in Paris.
 

thatrapsfan

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Saudi Arabia Has No Idea How to Deal With Iran

By EMILE HOKAYEM NOV. 16, 2017


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Saudi men in front of a poster of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, this month in Riyadh. Credit Fayez Nureldine/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Few things are as explosive as the combination of power, ambition and anxiety — and there is plenty of all three in Riyadh these days.

Once a cautious and passive regional power, Saudi Arabia has found a new purpose in recent years. The ruthless ambition of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in full display at home with his crackdown on businessmen and members of the royal family, also radiates across the Middle East, driven by the urgency to check Iranian influence. Prince Mohammed has a point. Iran is set on becoming the dominant power from Iraq to Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia may exaggerate Iranian intentions and power, but Western and Asian countries typically understate them. The Iranians themselves are clear about how they view the region: “Is it possible to make any important decisions on Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, North Africa and the Persian Gulf region without Iran or Iran’s opinion?” Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s president, boasted last month. Tehran may not be in full control in Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, but thanks to its proxies and allies, it can decisively shape their battlefields and politics.

Given these circumstances, Prince Mohammed has good reason to question the value of his predecessors’ risk aversion on foreign policy. Under previous kings, Riyadh was indeed keen to reach out to Tehran despite provocative Iranian actions, including fast-tracking its nuclear program just as King Abdullah courted Presidents Akbar Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, and plotting to assassinate a Saudi ambassador in the United States.


Now Saudi foreign and security policy has gone into overdrive. Rather than carefully pushing back Iran and enrolling broad support for this effort, the approach has been haphazard, unsettling and counterproductive — and Iran remains one step ahead.

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Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen, on behalf of the government forces fighting against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels has been costly and inconclusive, even after more than two and a half years. In fact, it could lead to the very outcome that Riyadh most wanted to prevent: the transformation of the Houthi movement into something akin to Lebanon’s Hezbollah — except much closer to Saudi borders. Indeed, unless the war in Yemen comes to an end soon, those well-armed, Iran-backed militants will soon sit atop a shattered state and a starved society.

The Saudi-led blockade of Qatar has been more successful. The effort to tame that country’s assertive regional policies has worked and the crisis has now been put on the back burner of international diplomacy. That said, the reputational cost has been high for all: A dispute framed by the Saudis as a struggle for the future of the Middle East is seen in many capitals as an unnecessary and disruptive clash of wealthy royals.

The latest Saudi venture — the forced resignation as prime minister of Lebanon and probable house arrest of Saad Hariri, once a favorite ally of Riyadh — has bewildered many in Lebanon and elsewhere. It is also likely to backfire. This move plays into the hands of Iran and Hezbollah, who duplicitously pose as rule abiding, despite having undermined the Lebanese state for decades, assassinating rivals, plunging the country into foreign wars and exporting fighters across the region. In contrast, Saudi Arabia was backing state institutions and working through established politicians like Mr. Hariri. What Riyadh has now in mind — and in store — for Lebanon is unclear.

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In fact, if its goal is to counter Iran, Riyadh is picking the wrong battlefields.

Lebanon and Yemen are peripheral countries, where wars are costly and complex, outcomes ambiguous and returns low. In the Middle East, the balance of power is determined in Syria and Iraq. But in those countries, the costs are high and the risks even higher. And in both places, Iran is well ahead.

In 2011, Riyadh reasoned that sponsoring the Syrian rebellion would help compensate for Iran’s dominance in Iraq. It hasn’t worked that way. The faltering Syrian insurgency cannot be revived, the United States has basically washed its hands of the Syrian civil war, and the country’s future is being decided in Moscow, Ankara and Tehran.

Perhaps better news for the Saudis is in Iraq, where they are making a late comeback after denying the new political realities since 2003. The courting of Moktada al-Sadr, a firebrand cleric turned a populist critic of Iran’s role in Iraq, and the embrace of Haider al-Abadi, the Iraqi prime minister, are spectacular yet tentative moves to balance Tehran’s influence.

Riyadh has learned the hard way that regional alliances, cultivated at great cost, don’t necessarily deliver the expected political and military benefits. The Saudis have propped up the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt with billions of dollars, yet Mr. Sisi is now resuming relations with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria and rejecting Saudi pressure to escalate tensions with Iran. Mr. Sisi has also declined Saudi requests to send troops to Yemen to fight against the Houthis.


A notable success for Saudi Arabia has been the realignment of American and Saudi policies, which is why President Trump has been welcomed so theatrically in the kingdom. Riyadh has been traumatized by its experience with the Obama administration, in particular President Obama’s unreciprocated eagerness to repair relations with Tehran and teach Iran and Saudi Arabia to “share” the Middle East.

Riyadh and Washington undeniably converge right now when it comes to Iran but that does not amount to a common strategy. Indeed, President Trump, Jared Kushner and Prince Mohammed seem to mistake presidential and princely preference and mutual agreement for statecraft and implementation.

Fundamentally, who prevails in the rivalry between Tehran and Riyadh comes down to capacity and competence. Iran has the networks, expertise, experience and strategic patience required to fight and win proxy wars at low cost and with plenty of disingenuous deniability. The Saudis simply don’t, which is why seeking to beat the Iranians at this game is dangerous and costly.

Iran has another strength: It has demonstrated that it will be there for its friends and allies in good and bad times. Saudi Arabia does not have the same constancy. Just ask Syrian rebels, Iraqi tribal leaders and Lebanese politicians.

Being mostly right on the Iranian menace is not enough. Rolling back Iran, a worthy and urgent goal, will require a broad international consensus and a less aggressive Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, unattainable foreign ambitions distract, at great cost, from the more important and momentous task of internal reform.

@Trajan @ZoeGod

Thoughts? I like this piece because while it is honest about Saudi's FP failures, I think it provides much needed balance in considering how Iran also contributes to regional instability. I think thats often understated in critiques of Saudi. Yes, the Iranians are more savvy political players but thats not the same thing as claiming theyre entirely innocent of all accusations lobbied against them IMO.
 
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