The mock draft has been adjusted to reflect the trade of Percy Harvin from Minnesota to Seattle. It shifts a number of picks.
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Doing a mock draft the day before free agency gets rolling? Call it a recipe to be wrong if you want, but let's instead use this as an opportunity to preview what free agency could mean for the draft. For every selection, I'll discuss how I think free agency additions and subtractions could change what the pick becomes. Bottom line: I expect a lot of things to change soon as teams cross off major personnel needs, but I've also taken into consideration what I expect some teams to do.
Feel free to quibble in the comments, and know that I'll be doing a lot of TV this week, looking at the draft through the lens of free agency. As always, juniors and third-year sophomores are noted with an asterisk.
1
Luke Joeckel
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 306
POS: OT
Pick analysis: Joeckel can play a huge role this season as the immediate starter at right tackle, and could become the left tackle of the future. Joeckel is a complete package, a gifted pass-blocker who utilizes great technique and also brings power in the run game.
Free agency factor: Branden Albert was franchised, but Joeckel could replace him next year on the left side if the Chiefs let him walk, saving them a ton of money at a premium position. I don't think any moves they make in 2013 free agency will play into this pick.
PLAYER CARD
2
Eric Fisher
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan
AGE: 22
HT: 6-7
WT: 306
POS: OT
Pick analysis: The Jags really need help on the pass rush, but they can get help there in Round 2. In taking Fisher, they improve their situation at left tackle, and there's no certainty that incumbent Eugene Monroe will be around in 2014. The Jags will never know what they have at QB if they can't do a better job in pass protection.
Free agency factor: The Jags could re-think this pick based on need if they can't find any pass-rush help in free agency. They have some cap space to add, but my guess is the team will be really focused on improving on several years of weak drafts.
PLAYER CARD
3
Sharrif Floyd *
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 20
HT: 6-3
WT: 297
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Raiders are in desperate need of young talent on the defensive line after a year where they were far too often gashed by the run. Floyd is a dynamic young talent, has played inside and on the edge and uses great leverage and power to drive blockers back and blow up plays.
Free agency factor: The future for Carson Palmer is a question mark because of his massive contract, and I can see the Raiders taking a hard look at a QB with this pick, even if the value range doesn't line up well. The Raiders also must find upgrades at linebacker. All in all, free agency shouldn't have much of an affect on this selection.
PLAYER CARD
4
Dee Milliner *
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-0
WT: 201
POS: CB
Pick analysis: Nnamdi Asomugha won't be wearing an Eagles uniform in 2013, and in a division with Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Robert Griffin III, the Eagles can't simply attempt to piece together the secondary. They need talent, and Milliner offers the best cornerback talent in the draft. Not a tough pick.
Free-agency factor: There isn't much in the way of top-end talent available in free agency if you want to improve your secondary, so I'm not sure any shopping will change the basis for this pick.
PLAYER CARD
5
Ezekiel Ansah
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: BYU
AGE: 23
HT: 6-5
WT: 271
POS: DE
Pick analysis: The Lions have some glaring holes at defensive end with Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril headed elsewhere, but that also could create an opportunity for an upgrade. Ansah is raw in terms of football skills, but he can develop into an explosive pass-rusher in that scheme, with strength to hold up against the run.
Free-agency factor: The Lions don't have the cap space to throw major dollars around, so they need to get the best player available at defensive end, cornerback or at offensive tackle. I don't think free agency will have a big impact on this pick.
PLAYER CARD
6
Dion Jordan
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Oregon
AGE: 23
HT: 6-6
WT: 248
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: The Browns had one of the worst pass rushes in the league last year, even with Jabaal Sheard around. Jordan is a long, explosive pass-rusher with freakish athleticism and an ability to work in space. This is a guy you want to unleash in a 3-4.
Free-agency factor: The Browns could be looking for some pass-rush help, but they won't find a player with better value than Jordan for their system. Yes, the Browns could still make a move for a quarterback, but I'm quite certain they won't use this pick for one if they can't add one via free agency or trade.
PLAYER CARD
7
Geno Smith
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 22
HT: 6-2
WT: 218
POS: QB
Pick analysis: What stands out with Smith is his ball placement -- he can be extremely accurate when he's making the right reads, something he did often in 2012. Arm strength is good, not elite, and you can certainly contend that any good QB might put up good numbers in the system he was in, and with the receivers he had. It's not a great value on my board, but it's a major need pick. Smith's pro day is Thursday, and you can be certain the Cardinals will be present.
Free-agency factor: See any big QBs in free agency that offer any more hope than Smith? The Cardinals have locked up Brian Hoyer as an insurance policy, but I'd be surprised if this or their second-round pick isn't a QB.
PLAYER CARD
8
Jarvis Jones *
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Georgia
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 245
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: Want to guarantee an improvement in your pass rush? Here's your safe pick. Jones has been exceptional for two years now against elite competition, and demands help when he comes off the edge. He's not Von Miller in terms of his athleticism, but he has the chance to produce at a slightly lower level, making him a good value at this slot.
Free-agency factor: The Bills spent a lot in free agency last year, and won't be as active this year. Quarterback could come into play at this pick because of the lack of options on the market. But if Arizona takes Smith, I don't like the value here, and they'd be better served finding a QB in Round 2.
PLAYER CARD
9
Barkevious Mingo *
New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSU
AGE: 22
HT: 6-4
WT: 242
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: It's about time the Jets found an athletic difference-maker on the edge for Rex Ryan. The interior of the defensive line should be a strength with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples, but they need edge speed. Mingo is a freak athlete, and could become a star with the right coaching.
Free-agency factor: The Jets are pretty tapped out, and won't be able to find a player of Mingo's caliber on the market. Remember, they also need to figure out the future at QB, but I think they'll look at QBs further down the board.
PLAYER CARD
10
Jonathan Cooper
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: G
Pick analysis: Adding Cooper just provides an immediate upgrade on the interior of your offensive line. A complete player who gets a great punch and moves really well for his size, he can run block well, pull with ease, move exceptionally well in the screen game and hit moving targets.
Free-agency factor: The Titans are pretty tight against the cap for 2013, so I don't expect free agency to have much impact on the decision they make with this pick.
PLAYER CARD
11
Lane Johnson
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6
WT: 303
POS: OT
Pick analysis: A really good player who is only going to get better, Johnson can become the successor to Jared Gaither at left tackle. Injuries along the offensive line have really weakened the offense over the past couple of seasons, and Philip Rivers has taken a step back because of it. Johnson, a former junior college quarterback, is a pretty gifted athlete for his size, and has been a star during the evaluation process going on now.
Free-agency factor: The Chargers could look at tackle in free agency, but they don't have a lot of money, and can't simply cut Gaither and save money because even if they set him loose, he counts against the cap to the tune of $6 million in 2013. They need to use the draft to upgrade at the position.
PLAYER CARD
12
Cordarrelle Patterson *
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: Tennessee
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 216
POS: WR
Pick analysis: He needs work as a route-runner, but Patterson is a potential difference-maker in the passing game. He can go up and get it, take the top off defenses and keep safeties deep because of his speed, and he's a big, physical, shifty runner with the ball in his hands.
Free-agency factor: If the Dolphins make a splash move and add a player such as Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings, they could go in another direction at this spot. They certainly could be thinking tackle if Jake Long moves on.
PLAYER CARD
13
Star Lotulelei
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Utah
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: DT
Pick analysis: This isn't the top need for the Bucs, but assuming everything checks out for Lotulelei on the medical front, he'd be a total steal here and allow Greg Schiano to create depth and make this a potentially dominant run defense going forward.
Free-agency factor: If defensive end Michael Bennett lands elsewhere in free agency, the Bucs will be looking for help at that spot. The pick of Lotulelei here would just be a steal in terms of how the board breaks.
PLAYER CARD
14
Tavon Austin
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 21
HT: 5-8
WT: 174
POS: WR
Pick analysis: Austin can't be used in the same manner as Steve Smith, but he can add another element of explosiveness to a passing attack that could use a player with his exact skills. Smith turns 34 two weeks after the draft, and Cam Newton could use an underneath target with the capability to do some damage after the catch.
Free-agency factor: The Panthers lack the flexibility to add splash in the passing game via free agency, so I don't see the process doing anything to diminish the value Austin could add.
PLAYER CARD
15
Sheldon Richardson *
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: Missouri
AGE: 24
HT: 6-2
WT: 294
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Saints should draft the best defensive player available, starting up front. Richardson is an active defender who can take on multiple blocks at the point of attack. Left one-on-one, he can penetrate and cause problems in the backfield, but he also moves down the line well and makes a lot of tackles from this position.
Free-agency factor: The Saints need to use the draft to get better on defense, because free agency isn't going to be a good option for them with where they are currently against the cap. Free agency shouldn't change the draft strategy.
---
Doing a mock draft the day before free agency gets rolling? Call it a recipe to be wrong if you want, but let's instead use this as an opportunity to preview what free agency could mean for the draft. For every selection, I'll discuss how I think free agency additions and subtractions could change what the pick becomes. Bottom line: I expect a lot of things to change soon as teams cross off major personnel needs, but I've also taken into consideration what I expect some teams to do.
Feel free to quibble in the comments, and know that I'll be doing a lot of TV this week, looking at the draft through the lens of free agency. As always, juniors and third-year sophomores are noted with an asterisk.
1
Luke Joeckel
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 306
POS: OT
Pick analysis: Joeckel can play a huge role this season as the immediate starter at right tackle, and could become the left tackle of the future. Joeckel is a complete package, a gifted pass-blocker who utilizes great technique and also brings power in the run game.
Free agency factor: Branden Albert was franchised, but Joeckel could replace him next year on the left side if the Chiefs let him walk, saving them a ton of money at a premium position. I don't think any moves they make in 2013 free agency will play into this pick.
PLAYER CARD
2
Eric Fisher
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan
AGE: 22
HT: 6-7
WT: 306
POS: OT
Pick analysis: The Jags really need help on the pass rush, but they can get help there in Round 2. In taking Fisher, they improve their situation at left tackle, and there's no certainty that incumbent Eugene Monroe will be around in 2014. The Jags will never know what they have at QB if they can't do a better job in pass protection.
Free agency factor: The Jags could re-think this pick based on need if they can't find any pass-rush help in free agency. They have some cap space to add, but my guess is the team will be really focused on improving on several years of weak drafts.
PLAYER CARD
3
Sharrif Floyd *
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 20
HT: 6-3
WT: 297
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Raiders are in desperate need of young talent on the defensive line after a year where they were far too often gashed by the run. Floyd is a dynamic young talent, has played inside and on the edge and uses great leverage and power to drive blockers back and blow up plays.
Free agency factor: The future for Carson Palmer is a question mark because of his massive contract, and I can see the Raiders taking a hard look at a QB with this pick, even if the value range doesn't line up well. The Raiders also must find upgrades at linebacker. All in all, free agency shouldn't have much of an affect on this selection.
PLAYER CARD
4
Dee Milliner *
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-0
WT: 201
POS: CB
Pick analysis: Nnamdi Asomugha won't be wearing an Eagles uniform in 2013, and in a division with Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Robert Griffin III, the Eagles can't simply attempt to piece together the secondary. They need talent, and Milliner offers the best cornerback talent in the draft. Not a tough pick.
Free-agency factor: There isn't much in the way of top-end talent available in free agency if you want to improve your secondary, so I'm not sure any shopping will change the basis for this pick.
PLAYER CARD
5
Ezekiel Ansah
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: BYU
AGE: 23
HT: 6-5
WT: 271
POS: DE
Pick analysis: The Lions have some glaring holes at defensive end with Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril headed elsewhere, but that also could create an opportunity for an upgrade. Ansah is raw in terms of football skills, but he can develop into an explosive pass-rusher in that scheme, with strength to hold up against the run.
Free-agency factor: The Lions don't have the cap space to throw major dollars around, so they need to get the best player available at defensive end, cornerback or at offensive tackle. I don't think free agency will have a big impact on this pick.
PLAYER CARD
6
Dion Jordan
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Oregon
AGE: 23
HT: 6-6
WT: 248
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: The Browns had one of the worst pass rushes in the league last year, even with Jabaal Sheard around. Jordan is a long, explosive pass-rusher with freakish athleticism and an ability to work in space. This is a guy you want to unleash in a 3-4.
Free-agency factor: The Browns could be looking for some pass-rush help, but they won't find a player with better value than Jordan for their system. Yes, the Browns could still make a move for a quarterback, but I'm quite certain they won't use this pick for one if they can't add one via free agency or trade.
PLAYER CARD
7
Geno Smith
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 22
HT: 6-2
WT: 218
POS: QB
Pick analysis: What stands out with Smith is his ball placement -- he can be extremely accurate when he's making the right reads, something he did often in 2012. Arm strength is good, not elite, and you can certainly contend that any good QB might put up good numbers in the system he was in, and with the receivers he had. It's not a great value on my board, but it's a major need pick. Smith's pro day is Thursday, and you can be certain the Cardinals will be present.
Free-agency factor: See any big QBs in free agency that offer any more hope than Smith? The Cardinals have locked up Brian Hoyer as an insurance policy, but I'd be surprised if this or their second-round pick isn't a QB.
PLAYER CARD
8
Jarvis Jones *
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Georgia
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 245
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: Want to guarantee an improvement in your pass rush? Here's your safe pick. Jones has been exceptional for two years now against elite competition, and demands help when he comes off the edge. He's not Von Miller in terms of his athleticism, but he has the chance to produce at a slightly lower level, making him a good value at this slot.
Free-agency factor: The Bills spent a lot in free agency last year, and won't be as active this year. Quarterback could come into play at this pick because of the lack of options on the market. But if Arizona takes Smith, I don't like the value here, and they'd be better served finding a QB in Round 2.
PLAYER CARD
9
Barkevious Mingo *
New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSU
AGE: 22
HT: 6-4
WT: 242
POS: OLB
Pick analysis: It's about time the Jets found an athletic difference-maker on the edge for Rex Ryan. The interior of the defensive line should be a strength with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples, but they need edge speed. Mingo is a freak athlete, and could become a star with the right coaching.
Free-agency factor: The Jets are pretty tapped out, and won't be able to find a player of Mingo's caliber on the market. Remember, they also need to figure out the future at QB, but I think they'll look at QBs further down the board.
PLAYER CARD
10
Jonathan Cooper
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: G
Pick analysis: Adding Cooper just provides an immediate upgrade on the interior of your offensive line. A complete player who gets a great punch and moves really well for his size, he can run block well, pull with ease, move exceptionally well in the screen game and hit moving targets.
Free-agency factor: The Titans are pretty tight against the cap for 2013, so I don't expect free agency to have much impact on the decision they make with this pick.
PLAYER CARD
11
Lane Johnson
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6
WT: 303
POS: OT
Pick analysis: A really good player who is only going to get better, Johnson can become the successor to Jared Gaither at left tackle. Injuries along the offensive line have really weakened the offense over the past couple of seasons, and Philip Rivers has taken a step back because of it. Johnson, a former junior college quarterback, is a pretty gifted athlete for his size, and has been a star during the evaluation process going on now.
Free-agency factor: The Chargers could look at tackle in free agency, but they don't have a lot of money, and can't simply cut Gaither and save money because even if they set him loose, he counts against the cap to the tune of $6 million in 2013. They need to use the draft to upgrade at the position.
PLAYER CARD
12
Cordarrelle Patterson *
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: Tennessee
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 216
POS: WR
Pick analysis: He needs work as a route-runner, but Patterson is a potential difference-maker in the passing game. He can go up and get it, take the top off defenses and keep safeties deep because of his speed, and he's a big, physical, shifty runner with the ball in his hands.
Free-agency factor: If the Dolphins make a splash move and add a player such as Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings, they could go in another direction at this spot. They certainly could be thinking tackle if Jake Long moves on.
PLAYER CARD
13
Star Lotulelei
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Utah
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2
WT: 311
POS: DT
Pick analysis: This isn't the top need for the Bucs, but assuming everything checks out for Lotulelei on the medical front, he'd be a total steal here and allow Greg Schiano to create depth and make this a potentially dominant run defense going forward.
Free-agency factor: If defensive end Michael Bennett lands elsewhere in free agency, the Bucs will be looking for help at that spot. The pick of Lotulelei here would just be a steal in terms of how the board breaks.
PLAYER CARD
14
Tavon Austin
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 21
HT: 5-8
WT: 174
POS: WR
Pick analysis: Austin can't be used in the same manner as Steve Smith, but he can add another element of explosiveness to a passing attack that could use a player with his exact skills. Smith turns 34 two weeks after the draft, and Cam Newton could use an underneath target with the capability to do some damage after the catch.
Free-agency factor: The Panthers lack the flexibility to add splash in the passing game via free agency, so I don't see the process doing anything to diminish the value Austin could add.
PLAYER CARD
15
Sheldon Richardson *
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: Missouri
AGE: 24
HT: 6-2
WT: 294
POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Saints should draft the best defensive player available, starting up front. Richardson is an active defender who can take on multiple blocks at the point of attack. Left one-on-one, he can penetrate and cause problems in the backfield, but he also moves down the line well and makes a lot of tackles from this position.
Free-agency factor: The Saints need to use the draft to get better on defense, because free agency isn't going to be a good option for them with where they are currently against the cap. Free agency shouldn't change the draft strategy.
