Why Hurricanes' win over Florida wasn't a fluke, could lead to bigger things
Updated: September 9, 2013, 1:26 PM ET
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
AP Photo/J Pat CarterStephen Morris led Miami to a win Saturday, but needs to cut down on his mistakes.
In 1983 the Miami Hurricanes posted a very rare achievement of going from being unranked at the start of the season to winning a national championship at the end of it.
That feat has been accomplished only twice since then (1984 Brigham Young and 1990 Georgia Tech), but after an impressive 21-16 over the Florida Gators, it is clear this year's Miami squad has a chance not only to win its division but also come close to replicating its predecessors' achievement by earning a berth to a BCS game. This would require the Canes to catch a few breaks, and it's too early to call them national title contenders, but after taking a closer look at the game tape and metrics from their victory over Florida, it's clear that the potential for a BCS run is there.
One of the more impressive elements of the Canes' win Saturday was how Miami's defense won the battle of the line of scrimmage versus the Gators' offense.
This was especially evident in the ground game. The Hurricanes allowed Florida to gain only 114 yards on 19 rushing plays where the Gators were graded out as having good run blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That equates to a 6.0-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric, which is much lower than the 7.5-8.0 yard mark that serves as the rough midpoint in the college football world.
Miami also gave up only 35 yards on 24 bad blocking plays (1.5 YPA). Anything less than 2 yards in this metric is considered a positive, so the Hurricanes didn't allow the Gators to post solid numbers no matter what caliber of blocking Florida was able to give its ball carriers.
The combination of those metrics indicates the Hurricanes allowed a 44.2 percent good blocking rate (GBR). A 50 percent showing in GBR tends to indicate average performance, so Miami's rushing defense was also ahead of the curve in the number of times they allowed a Gators rusher a quality chance at gaining ground yards.
Florida attempted to augment its rushing attack with a lot of screen passes but those efforts fell well short of success. The Gators gained 27 yards on four screen pass completions and one of those turned into a fumble that was recovered by the Hurricanes defense. Florida attempted another screen pass on a swinging gate trick play on a two-point conversion play in the first quarter that Miami's special teams read perfectly and stuffed for a failed conversion attempt. Add in another screen pass that ended up being nullified by a holding penalty and it shows the Hurricanes defense was more than up to the task of stopping these types of plays.
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Cal Sport Media via AP ImagesDuke Johnson and the Miami rushing attack can improve.
The Canes were just as stingy against short passes (passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield) in general, as they gave up only 5.5 yards per attempt on 21 plays of this nature.
Florida had more success on vertical passes (those thrown 11 or more yards), going 6-of-12 for 154 yards, but that success came at a price. Both of quarterback Jeff Driskel's bad decisions (defined as a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team) occurred on attempts at this depth level. That equates to a ridiculously high 16.7 percent vertical bad decision rate (BDR) and is part of why the Hurricanes had two picks in this contest.
This dominant defensive showing allowed Miami to overcome some significant issues on offense. Tops among these was a 6.2 GBYPA and three bad decisions by quarterback Stephen Morris.
The rushing game can be much better as the season goes on, as evidenced by Duke Johnson's 24 rushes of 10-or-more yards last year. According to ESPN Stats & Information, this total ranked tied for fourth in the ACC in this category and is the highest total of any running back who returned for the 2013 season. Look for his production to increase when he's not facing defenses as stingy as Florida's.
Morris' path to improvement is quite simple, as two of his bad decisions occurred because he decided to force passes into tight coverage. All he has to do to avoid mistakes of this nature is to not try to make a play when one isn't there.
If the defense can continue to play to this level and the offense corrects some of its issues from the Florida game, Miami could go on a serious run. That's because the Canes' schedule should allow them to quickly rise in the polls.
Miami has home games against Savannah State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Virginia. All of these contests look to be ones where the Hurricanes would be considered the favorite.
The away slate isn't that much tougher for the most part. There is a game at South Florida (a team only two weeks removed from a 53-21 home loss against McNeese State), a Thursday night test at North Carolina and games against Duke and Pittsburgh.
It would not be a big surprise to see Miami come away victorious in all of those road games, so the real roadblock to running the regular-season table could be a trip to Tallahassee to face the archrival Florida State Seminoles on Nov. 9. The Hurricanes won their last trip to the north side of Florida in 2011 and went toe-to-toe with the Seminoles in 2012, so it is certainly possible the Canes could pull off a win here, even if FSU would have to be favored at this point.
If Miami were to go unbeaten in the regular season, the Hurricanes would be only a win in the ACC title game away from having a very strong shot at playing in the BCS title tilt.
Going 13-0 can't be considered the most probable outcome for Miami given that Clemson is just as likely to go unbeaten, and the FSU game will provide a significant test even if the Canes can win the games in which they're favored. But it is fair to say that the Hurricanes are closer to national title contention than they have been in the past decade. If a few things go right, Miami could find itself in a BCS bowl in January.
