Once again the ESPN Forecast Panel has spoken, and now it's time for our third annual look at how players' #NBArank rankings compare to their salaries. The #NBArank scores provide a rich opportunity for data mining, letting us determine which players are the most overpaid and underpaid, and allowing us to assess the relevance of factors such as the player's age and how they signed their contracts.
While there's a lot of math involved in producing these results, the basic idea is pretty straightforward. Every player's #NBArank score (from 0 to 10) is plotted, along with his salary. From there a technique called a regression analysis determines the "expected" salary for any given score. This chart shows every player's plot, with the line indicating the league-wide regression curve.
The curve is exponential in nature -- the higher the #NBArank score, the faster the expected salaries climb. In other words, the better players don't just get paid more, they get paid a lot more.
Of course, players don't get paid exactly what we'd expect them to make based on their #NBArank alone. But performance clearly has a big influence. In fact, a statistical tool called R-squared tells us that about 63 percent of player salaries can be explained by their #NBArank scores. The remaining 37 percent variance comes from other factors -- scale salaries in rookie contracts, maximum salary limitations, the effects of injuries, negotiating skill, and even being in the right place at the right time.
Any players above the curve can be considered overpaid, and any players below the curve can be considered underpaid. The vertical distance between a player's actual salary and his expected salary is the amount by which he is overpaid or underpaid.
This season the most correctly paid player is Boston's Jordan Crawford, whose actual and expected salaries differ by just $2,886.
Most overpaid and underpaid by amount
Look at the rightmost value in the graph, right above 10.0 on the X axis. That's LeBron James. His actual salary is just below $20 million. But look at his expected salary, based on his #NBArank. It's literally off this chart at about $35.4 million. This is the NBA's maximum salary rules at work -- in a truly open market, James should be paid about $16.4 million more than he actually makes.
Here are the most underpaid players in the league, based on the amount by which they are underpaid:
NBA's most underpaid players
Player #NBArank Score Expected salary Actual salary Difference
LeBron James 1 10.00 $35,446,024 $19,067,500 $16,378,524
Kevin Durant 2 9.83 $32,771,765 $17,832,627 $14,939,138
Kyrie Irving 8 8.69 $19,472,166 $5,607,240 $13,864,926
Paul George 13 8.39 $17,004,743 $3,282,003 $13,722,740
Stephen Curry 6 8.72 $19,751,878 $9,887,642 $9,864,236
Chris Paul 3 9.48 $27,984,788 $18,668,431 $9,316,357
Kawhi Leonard 34 7.27 $10,186,477 $1,887,840 $8,298,637
James Harden 4 8.94 $21,825,654 $13,701,250 $8,124,404
Damian Lillard 30 7.46 $11,141,881 $3,202,920 $7,938,961
Kenneth Faried 47 6.84 $8,393,844 $1,367,640 $7,026,204
For the second straight season, LeBron James is the most underpaid player in the league. All 10 of these players are held back by rookie contracts or maximum salary restrictions. Paul George's extension won't kick in until next season, so this season he's among the league's most underpaid.
Take a look back at the graph, at the topmost value -- just above $30 million in salary. That's Kobe Bryant. He's the highest paid player in the league, but his age and uncertainty over his Achilles injury have knocked his #NBArank score down to 25th at 7.78. At that level his expected salary is about $12.9 million, meaning he's overpaid by about $17.6 million. This makes him the most overpaid player in the league. Here is the full list of the most overpaid players based on the amount by which they are overpaid:
NBA's most overpaid players
Player #NBArank Score Expected salary Actual salary Difference
Kobe Bryant 25 7.78 $12,876,109 $30,453,805 $17,577,696
Amar'e Stoudemire 125 5.30 $4,156,033 $21,679,893 $17,523,860
Joe Johnson 59 6.47 $7,073,452 $21,466,718 $14,393,266
Emeka Okafor 138 5.05 $3,707,883 $14,487,500 $10,779,617
Hedo Turkoglu 372 2.70 $1,264,480 $12,000,000 $10,735,520
Ben Gordon 217 4.19 $2,497,240 $13,200,000 $10,702,760
Rudy Gay 55 6.66 $7,705,417 $17,888,932 $10,183,515
Dirk Nowitzki 26 7.77 $12,797,644 $22,721,381 $9,923,737
Richard Jefferson 306 3.20 $1,593,475 $11,046,000 $9,452,525
Kris Humphries 162 4.75 $3,228,156 $12,000,000 $8,771,844
Of course, the value of players such as Bryant and Nowitzki transcend their on-court performances. While #NBArank only considers a player's value as a basketball player, these players also put fans in seats, glue eyes to TV screens and help sell lots of merchandise. You could therefore argue that players such as Bryant and Nowitzki are paid on a different scale -- one that factors in the total value they bring to the league.
Most overpaid and underpaid by percentage
Consider two hypothetical players. Player 1 has an expected salary of $500,000, but is paid $2 million. Player 2 has an expected salary of $20 million, but is paid $25 million. Which player is more overpaid: (A) Player 1 or (B) Player 2? The answer is: (C) It's a matter of perspective.
Player 1 makes $1.5 million more than expected, while Player 2 makes $5 million more. From that standpoint, Player 2 is vastly more overpaid. But let's look at it from another perspective. Player 1 is overpaid by 300 percent, while Player 2 is overpaid by just 25 percent.
So it's important to look at the results by percentages as well. Here are the most underpaid players in the league based on the percentage by which they are underpaid. For example, Chandler Parsons is paid just 12.7 percent of his expected salary.
While there's a lot of math involved in producing these results, the basic idea is pretty straightforward. Every player's #NBArank score (from 0 to 10) is plotted, along with his salary. From there a technique called a regression analysis determines the "expected" salary for any given score. This chart shows every player's plot, with the line indicating the league-wide regression curve.
The curve is exponential in nature -- the higher the #NBArank score, the faster the expected salaries climb. In other words, the better players don't just get paid more, they get paid a lot more.
Of course, players don't get paid exactly what we'd expect them to make based on their #NBArank alone. But performance clearly has a big influence. In fact, a statistical tool called R-squared tells us that about 63 percent of player salaries can be explained by their #NBArank scores. The remaining 37 percent variance comes from other factors -- scale salaries in rookie contracts, maximum salary limitations, the effects of injuries, negotiating skill, and even being in the right place at the right time.
Any players above the curve can be considered overpaid, and any players below the curve can be considered underpaid. The vertical distance between a player's actual salary and his expected salary is the amount by which he is overpaid or underpaid.
This season the most correctly paid player is Boston's Jordan Crawford, whose actual and expected salaries differ by just $2,886.
Most overpaid and underpaid by amount
Look at the rightmost value in the graph, right above 10.0 on the X axis. That's LeBron James. His actual salary is just below $20 million. But look at his expected salary, based on his #NBArank. It's literally off this chart at about $35.4 million. This is the NBA's maximum salary rules at work -- in a truly open market, James should be paid about $16.4 million more than he actually makes.
Here are the most underpaid players in the league, based on the amount by which they are underpaid:
NBA's most underpaid players
Player #NBArank Score Expected salary Actual salary Difference
LeBron James 1 10.00 $35,446,024 $19,067,500 $16,378,524
Kevin Durant 2 9.83 $32,771,765 $17,832,627 $14,939,138
Kyrie Irving 8 8.69 $19,472,166 $5,607,240 $13,864,926
Paul George 13 8.39 $17,004,743 $3,282,003 $13,722,740
Stephen Curry 6 8.72 $19,751,878 $9,887,642 $9,864,236
Chris Paul 3 9.48 $27,984,788 $18,668,431 $9,316,357
Kawhi Leonard 34 7.27 $10,186,477 $1,887,840 $8,298,637
James Harden 4 8.94 $21,825,654 $13,701,250 $8,124,404
Damian Lillard 30 7.46 $11,141,881 $3,202,920 $7,938,961
Kenneth Faried 47 6.84 $8,393,844 $1,367,640 $7,026,204
For the second straight season, LeBron James is the most underpaid player in the league. All 10 of these players are held back by rookie contracts or maximum salary restrictions. Paul George's extension won't kick in until next season, so this season he's among the league's most underpaid.
Take a look back at the graph, at the topmost value -- just above $30 million in salary. That's Kobe Bryant. He's the highest paid player in the league, but his age and uncertainty over his Achilles injury have knocked his #NBArank score down to 25th at 7.78. At that level his expected salary is about $12.9 million, meaning he's overpaid by about $17.6 million. This makes him the most overpaid player in the league. Here is the full list of the most overpaid players based on the amount by which they are overpaid:
NBA's most overpaid players
Player #NBArank Score Expected salary Actual salary Difference
Kobe Bryant 25 7.78 $12,876,109 $30,453,805 $17,577,696
Amar'e Stoudemire 125 5.30 $4,156,033 $21,679,893 $17,523,860
Joe Johnson 59 6.47 $7,073,452 $21,466,718 $14,393,266
Emeka Okafor 138 5.05 $3,707,883 $14,487,500 $10,779,617
Hedo Turkoglu 372 2.70 $1,264,480 $12,000,000 $10,735,520
Ben Gordon 217 4.19 $2,497,240 $13,200,000 $10,702,760
Rudy Gay 55 6.66 $7,705,417 $17,888,932 $10,183,515
Dirk Nowitzki 26 7.77 $12,797,644 $22,721,381 $9,923,737
Richard Jefferson 306 3.20 $1,593,475 $11,046,000 $9,452,525
Kris Humphries 162 4.75 $3,228,156 $12,000,000 $8,771,844
Of course, the value of players such as Bryant and Nowitzki transcend their on-court performances. While #NBArank only considers a player's value as a basketball player, these players also put fans in seats, glue eyes to TV screens and help sell lots of merchandise. You could therefore argue that players such as Bryant and Nowitzki are paid on a different scale -- one that factors in the total value they bring to the league.
Most overpaid and underpaid by percentage
Consider two hypothetical players. Player 1 has an expected salary of $500,000, but is paid $2 million. Player 2 has an expected salary of $20 million, but is paid $25 million. Which player is more overpaid: (A) Player 1 or (B) Player 2? The answer is: (C) It's a matter of perspective.
Player 1 makes $1.5 million more than expected, while Player 2 makes $5 million more. From that standpoint, Player 2 is vastly more overpaid. But let's look at it from another perspective. Player 1 is overpaid by 300 percent, while Player 2 is overpaid by just 25 percent.
So it's important to look at the results by percentages as well. Here are the most underpaid players in the league based on the percentage by which they are underpaid. For example, Chandler Parsons is paid just 12.7 percent of his expected salary.
