NASCAR banning the flag will change the GOP forever. Coalitions are shifting.

Discussion in 'Higher Learning' started by GnauzBookOfRhymes, Jun 11, 2020.

  1. GnauzBookOfRhymes

    GnauzBookOfRhymes Superstar

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    I said it before that trumps rise will be an inflection point for the GOP.

    The GOP coalition will begin to shift forever after this election.

    Big business/corporate will be slowly moving away from overt institutional support for the GOP. The party itself will begin shedding some of the professional class - these will be the new “swing voters.” The party’s platform will shift to be much more “liberal” on economic issues. Made in USA, tariffs, greater social safety net guarantees but still wildly conservative/radical on social and cultural issues. They will start seeking alliances with hardcore Bernie voters that hate the Dems and are willing to sacrifice social/cultural issues so long as they’re able to test out their economic theories.
     
  2. adexkola

    adexkola All Star

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    Sounds like a small party still. I don't know how feasible this realignment is.
     
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  3. DIO Brando

    DIO Brando RIP GOAT

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    As long as Trump is alive, I don't think there's going to be a pivot. Even if he loses, he'll buy OANN to give his base what they want and drive the party from there.
     
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  4. the next guy

    the next guy Superstar

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    Truthfully there was very little market for the social conservative and libertarian economics theory, the base and center-right elites just swallowed it because of fears of socialism. The union I think was always tenuous, liberals vs anti liberals, and it still didn't fully work out due to the fact the left still gained control of pop culture. The GOP will rebound quickly and move towards ditching the white working class for high-income Asians and Hispanics, the way the Democrats left them behind from 1967-1980. We might see a nationalist party with your planks though.

    I think the upper-class conservatives are tired of apologizing for their beliefs because of the way not just trump supporters, but tea partiers and Gingrich, Reagan democrats, Dixiecrats act in public. There is a limit. I also see white families breaking apart over this. A lot of white kids are sick of this behaviour as well.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2020
  5. GnauzBookOfRhymes

    GnauzBookOfRhymes Superstar

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    They have a floor of 40% already. That’s not a small party.

    I will fully flesh out the argument later but these realignments will affect Dem party as well.
     
  6. Json

    Json Superstar

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    They aren't doing that. This covid crisis exposed how easy our supply lines can be disrupted out of a singular country.

    The reason they haven't jumped on this in the Anti-China rants is cause bringing manufacturing back to America means stronger unions that they've spent decades breaking down. Their business overloads still don't want to pay those wages.

    The whole anti-Mexico/China rants were just to get their gullible base to vote. Just like their social "conservative" value is just for show. Vote to repeal healthcare access to the poor while talking about how much they'll defend the right to a Christian nation!!
     
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  7. the cac mamba

    the cac mamba Veteran

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    good point :ehh:

    corporations are just gonna start following the money, which is the opposite direction of where trump is leading his base on social issues.
     
  8. FAH1223

    FAH1223 Go Wizards, Go Terps, Go Packers! Staff Member Hall of Fame

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    The GOP still controls most of the states in the union.
     
  9. GnauzBookOfRhymes

    GnauzBookOfRhymes Superstar

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    I agree that trump himself doesn't give one fukk and that it was just a way to drive stupid voters. But that doesn't change the fact that it will attract a great deal of people if there is a politician that ppl think can actually bring it about. Trust me, there are ppl in the GOP already gaming these situations out. Go back to what Sen. Hawley proposed. That shyt is bananas when you think about it coming from a staunch right winger. And I'll go even further to suggest that if the GOP is able to evolve into a party of economic nationalism - so long as they tamp down the racialist appeals - they will even start gaining Black voters who believe they've been left out of every economic boom but victimized by all of the crashes. This is what I'm talking about when I bring up realignment.

    Businesses can and do change their minds on a dime if they are forced to do so. They will very happily pay higher wages if there are less employees (which there will be as we continue the march towards Basic Income). They will happily pay higher wages if they feel exposed to political retribution - which will happen in an environment where the GOP is more and more anti "big business" and the Dems continue to drift to the left on economic issues.

    Also I believe that European politics is a reliable foreshadowing of US politics. And in Europe even the "conservative" economic platform would be considered relatively progressive.
     
  10. ZoeGod

    ZoeGod I’m from Brooklyn a place where stars are born.

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    The Maga/Tea Party base will still be a factor. They are the base and if Trump loses there will be a perception that the party elites did a stab behind the back by abandoning Trump. So I can see a Tea Party 2.0 wave that is gonna be even more radical. This is why I won’t be surprised if Tom Cotton becomes the nominee is a tough primary in 2024. The GOP elites may want to change but their base is getting more and more radical. Hell wouldn’t be surprised if there is a split.
     
  11. Json

    Json Superstar

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    ???

    The GOP has been doing this long before Trump. Are we forgetting Denny Hastert and his crew going after Clinton and now we know Hastert was touching kids. Decrying the deficit during Dem years then suddenly just spending on wars and tax cuts during Republican years.


    They can't hold the bible belt without racist issues.

    Hawley is from a state that elects both Dems and Reps. Unless Senators and Reps from Mississippi,Texas, Alabama, and Georgia(you know the state that wanted to punish a major employer Delta Air over the NRA) you aren't moving the party nationally anywhere.

    Businesses say stuff publicly for PR purposes then have millions of dollars to lobby the Senators and Reps to take the ire of constituents as they block the bills they say they are for.

    Walmart can lock guns behind the counter after a national tragedy and then give money to the Senator blocking gun reform to be reelected.

    Are you forgetting that Hazard pay ended just because the corporations decided they didn't want to pay it anymore and not cause they hazard ended? How does that line up with your idealist view of businesses will happily pay higher wages. Kroger employees are protesting to have it restored.

    Remember when Walmart made a big deal at paying bonuses to employees after outrage over Trump tax cuts then found out it was less than like 10% of their workforce.

    Europe hasn't passed UBI universally. You really think America is going to jump ahead of them?

    Europe had credit card chips with more safety than the strip for over a decade and America didn't bother cause it was too costly.
     
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  12. 88m3

    88m3 Fast Money & Foreign Objects

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    As goofy and as symbolic as this is, I think it's a really big deal honestly. The confederate flag and monuments to it have to go. NSACAR and other corporations shedding it are a big deal.

    I never imagined I would see this happen.
     
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  13. acri1

    acri1 The Chosen 1 Supporter

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    Nah, I think this shyt has permanently changed the GOP. I'm more than happy about this confederate shyt finally being taken down but it won't change how Republican voters vote.

    Once Trump is out of office the MAGA base is just going to look for his successor. It's hard to see a Mitt Romney type being the party leader again even if the corporate people would prefer that. I think the GOP would have to have several terrible elections in a row before they really pushed back on the Trump shyt.
     
  14. Mephistopheles

    Mephistopheles Veteran

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    What makes you so sure they’re going to move left economically? The only person in that party I see taking positions that are even remotely pro-worker is Josh Hawley.
     
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  15. 88m3

    88m3 Fast Money & Foreign Objects

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    You heading to the track this weekend?
     

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