BelowTheMasonDixon
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING: Notre Dame and Week 1's 20 other best bets
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Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Expecting a sloppy opening slate without too much scoring, while some favorites show they can be dominant.
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All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week, and here's your full Week 1 viewing schedule.
Defense being ahead of offense is something that's pretty consistent this time of year in college football. It makes sense, as defense is a game of collective individualism while offense is truly more about teamwork and chemistry, which takes time to develop.
And that trend does not just stop with the end of fall camp. It carries over into early games. With that in mind, I'll be wagering heavily on unders to begin the year.
Thursday
1. Michigan at Utah -4.5: Betting on or against Michigan is somewhat tough because I don't know exactly how much Jim Harbaugh can get out of the talent that Brady Hoke squandered. I do know, however, that Utah's only weakness on defense is likely to be in the secondary and that Michigan's passing game is unlikely to be hitting on all cylinders on the road.
2. Colorado -7 at Hawaii: Week 1 is a good time to bet on teams you believe are much improved, before the general public realizes. Colorado and Hawaii were both bad, but I believe the gap between these two teams on a neutral field is closer to 17 points, which makes laying seven on the road a value.
Our season preview is big, free, and good!
A few highlights:
3. Washington at Boise State -12: Chris Petersen is an amazing coach and Washington should take a big step forward in Year 2, right? Well, I don't think so. Washington lost three All-Americans on defense and now has serious questions at offensive line and quarterback. Boise State is loaded and I expect the Broncos to try to make a major statement against a power-conference team.
Saturday
4. Texas at Notre Dame -9: I have no confidence in an offense on a team coached by Charlie Strong. His best ever ranked 18th at Louisville, and that was with Teddy Bridgewater. I am high on Notre Dame even after the loss of defensive tackle Jarron Jones, and think Texas' offense will give Notre Dame the ball enough in plus territory. Texas says it is looking to go more up-tempo, but I'll believe that when I see it.
5. Alabama vs. Wisconsin Under 51 points: Alabama is replacing its quarterback and has not found a definite replacement, as well as sending 2014 security blanket Amari Cooper off to the league. Wisconsin's defense is typically stout, and its own run-heavy offense does not match up well against Alabama's front seven, the best in college football.
6. Louisville vs. Auburn Under 56.5: Betting an under involving two of the best offensive minds in football is scary, but I expect Auburn's defense to take a big step forward under coordinator Will Muschamp, and Louisville's defense is flush with transfer talent in defensive end Devonte Fields from TCU and defensive backs from Georgia.
7. Arizona State vs. Texas A&M -3: I think Kyle Allen is a big time QB and that Texas A&M's skill is going to be the difference. It's a neutral-site contest that will be anything but, as Houston is just about an hour from A&M's campus. For more on this matchup, check out Ian Boyd's Xs & Os breakdown.
8. New Mexico State at Florida Under 57.5 points: Jim McElwain is an offensive-minded coach, but he won't change that much in Year 1; this will still be a team with a stout defense and a troubled offense. Florida has been playing two quarterbacks consistently, which hurts chemistry with receivers. The Gators have one of the least experienced offensive lines in football. Oh, and there is a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms.
9. UTSA at Arizona Under 60.5 points: First, there is a 49 percent chance of thunderstorms in the desert, which seems a bit unusual. Second, the Roadrunners' offense was already poor, and now it has one of the least experienced lines in the country, while its defense plays with a lot of effort. Arizona, meanwhile, stops the run better than the pass and returns almost its entire front seven, which matches up well.
Dan Rubenstein picks the five biggest games, with glorious Compton brisket tacos.
10. Akron at Oklahoma Under 57.5 points: Oklahoma lost two All-Big 12 tackles and an All-Big 12 guard and another guard who started 32 games. Yes, Oklahoma has some seniors, and yes, I am high on new coordinator Lincoln Riley, but it might take a week or two to get going. Oklahoma's defense should remain quite good. The line suggests a game of about 45-14, and I see something closer to 42-7.
11. ULM at Georgia Under 54.5 points: Georgia's defense lost a lot up front, but the Warhawks' offensive line simply isn't good. Look for Georgia to stifle ULM and get it going on the ground with Nick Chubb, but to struggle a bit through the air in a 38-7-type game.
12. Mississippi State at Southern Miss Under 61.5 points: Mississippi State lost a lot at the skill positions and its three more experienced linemen. Yet Dan Mullen could push this total over if he wanted to by running Dak Prescott a lot. But Mullen is smarter than that. In 2014, he ran Prescott almost twice as much against winning teams (20 times per game) as he did losing teams (12).
Predictions for Every CFB Week 1 Game
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Expecting a sloppy opening slate without too much scoring, while some favorites show they can be dominant.
TWEET (46) SHARE PIN
All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week, and here's your full Week 1 viewing schedule.
Defense being ahead of offense is something that's pretty consistent this time of year in college football. It makes sense, as defense is a game of collective individualism while offense is truly more about teamwork and chemistry, which takes time to develop.
And that trend does not just stop with the end of fall camp. It carries over into early games. With that in mind, I'll be wagering heavily on unders to begin the year.
Thursday
1. Michigan at Utah -4.5: Betting on or against Michigan is somewhat tough because I don't know exactly how much Jim Harbaugh can get out of the talent that Brady Hoke squandered. I do know, however, that Utah's only weakness on defense is likely to be in the secondary and that Michigan's passing game is unlikely to be hitting on all cylinders on the road.
2. Colorado -7 at Hawaii: Week 1 is a good time to bet on teams you believe are much improved, before the general public realizes. Colorado and Hawaii were both bad, but I believe the gap between these two teams on a neutral field is closer to 17 points, which makes laying seven on the road a value.
Our season preview is big, free, and good!
A few highlights:- Bill Connelly RANKED all 128 teams
- Predictions for every bowl and Playoff
- Spencer Hall previewed *every* SEC game
- Bill interviewed 7 major coaches
- On Nick Saban becoming Bill Belichick
- And tons more!
3. Washington at Boise State -12: Chris Petersen is an amazing coach and Washington should take a big step forward in Year 2, right? Well, I don't think so. Washington lost three All-Americans on defense and now has serious questions at offensive line and quarterback. Boise State is loaded and I expect the Broncos to try to make a major statement against a power-conference team.
Saturday
4. Texas at Notre Dame -9: I have no confidence in an offense on a team coached by Charlie Strong. His best ever ranked 18th at Louisville, and that was with Teddy Bridgewater. I am high on Notre Dame even after the loss of defensive tackle Jarron Jones, and think Texas' offense will give Notre Dame the ball enough in plus territory. Texas says it is looking to go more up-tempo, but I'll believe that when I see it.
5. Alabama vs. Wisconsin Under 51 points: Alabama is replacing its quarterback and has not found a definite replacement, as well as sending 2014 security blanket Amari Cooper off to the league. Wisconsin's defense is typically stout, and its own run-heavy offense does not match up well against Alabama's front seven, the best in college football.
6. Louisville vs. Auburn Under 56.5: Betting an under involving two of the best offensive minds in football is scary, but I expect Auburn's defense to take a big step forward under coordinator Will Muschamp, and Louisville's defense is flush with transfer talent in defensive end Devonte Fields from TCU and defensive backs from Georgia.
7. Arizona State vs. Texas A&M -3: I think Kyle Allen is a big time QB and that Texas A&M's skill is going to be the difference. It's a neutral-site contest that will be anything but, as Houston is just about an hour from A&M's campus. For more on this matchup, check out Ian Boyd's Xs & Os breakdown.
8. New Mexico State at Florida Under 57.5 points: Jim McElwain is an offensive-minded coach, but he won't change that much in Year 1; this will still be a team with a stout defense and a troubled offense. Florida has been playing two quarterbacks consistently, which hurts chemistry with receivers. The Gators have one of the least experienced offensive lines in football. Oh, and there is a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms.
9. UTSA at Arizona Under 60.5 points: First, there is a 49 percent chance of thunderstorms in the desert, which seems a bit unusual. Second, the Roadrunners' offense was already poor, and now it has one of the least experienced lines in the country, while its defense plays with a lot of effort. Arizona, meanwhile, stops the run better than the pass and returns almost its entire front seven, which matches up well.
Dan Rubenstein picks the five biggest games, with glorious Compton brisket tacos.
10. Akron at Oklahoma Under 57.5 points: Oklahoma lost two All-Big 12 tackles and an All-Big 12 guard and another guard who started 32 games. Yes, Oklahoma has some seniors, and yes, I am high on new coordinator Lincoln Riley, but it might take a week or two to get going. Oklahoma's defense should remain quite good. The line suggests a game of about 45-14, and I see something closer to 42-7.
11. ULM at Georgia Under 54.5 points: Georgia's defense lost a lot up front, but the Warhawks' offensive line simply isn't good. Look for Georgia to stifle ULM and get it going on the ground with Nick Chubb, but to struggle a bit through the air in a 38-7-type game.
12. Mississippi State at Southern Miss Under 61.5 points: Mississippi State lost a lot at the skill positions and its three more experienced linemen. Yet Dan Mullen could push this total over if he wanted to by running Dak Prescott a lot. But Mullen is smarter than that. In 2014, he ran Prescott almost twice as much against winning teams (20 times per game) as he did losing teams (12).
Predictions for Every CFB Week 1 Game
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