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Professor Emeritus

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in the same field. Honestly i see nothing wrong with p hacking. You collected a generous amount of data for an experiment. Lets say your looking at over 15 constructs. What is wrong with finding which influences which? Just like the society, there is so much data around us to tell us information we need. Why not explore our options to tell a story that we might miss because we decided to re run an experiment when we have the data already?

P-hacking can mean a lot of different things and the term denotes something negative by default, so you must be trying to say that you don't think a certain process constitutes p-hacking.

The main issue with all forms of p-hacking is that they destroy the validity of the statistical models that tell you the p-value has any meaning in the first place. Obvious things like dropping outliers you don't like or manipulating the correlating factors you tested for are straight scientific malpractice. Yet they're done all the time. And there are less obvious ways of p-hacking that also kill statistical validity.

Let's say you run one experiment with 100 subjects and calculate a certain p-value for your results. Let's say someone else runs 15 experiments with 100 subjects each, and only uses the one group of 100 that gave him the p-value he wanted. Those p-values are NOT telling you the same thing. Calculating a p-value for an entire 100-sample experiment and cherry-picking your best p-value out of 15 different experiments are two completely different realities. But if the experimenter isn't honest about how many times they ran the samples, the person reading the paper has no way of knowing the difference.

Until they try to replicate, of course. If you're trying to replicate the results someone got the very first time they did the experiment, then you'll have a decent chance of getting the same results. But if you're trying to replicate results that were just the best of 15 different tries, fat chance of replicating that. You're gonna get a "not statistically significant" result like the original researcher did the first 14 times he ran data.

There's lots of versions like that. Lets say you design for 100 samples but don't get the p-value you want, so you keep increasing the samples until you hit your p-value. Now, perhaps that was just a random fluctuation and if you kept increasing after that you would have dropped back into not statistically significant again. So that's p-hacking too.

Or suppose you went into the experiment claiming to look for one relationship, but you test for correlations of 60 other relationships too. By random chance it's likely that ONE of those correlations will be statistically significant in your sample. If you consider that first run to just be some hypothesis finding and check for that relationship again among a completely different sample group, you're in the clear. But if you try to pull out the single correlation you got out of the 60 you tested on your original sample without employing a statistical test that indicates you were looking at 60 different relationships, then your p-value is illegitimate. Those values are based on the assumption that you are testing one set of subjects for one relationship, if you just start mining for a hundred different things at once then you'll catch a random statistical outlier whether there's a valid relationship or not. In that case you will ONLY know the relationship is valid if you then independently test that relationship against different data sets to see if the same thing happens (there are statistical ways to do it with the same data set but they aren't quite as convincing and many researchers fail to do those as well).

And the proof is in the pudding. MOST published experiments in MOST fields aren't reproducible. There are sometimes valid reasons for an experiment not reproducing the same results the second time around, but generally that's an embarrassing fact and evidence of real issues in the field. It's especially problematic when you consider that most experimental results are never reproduced since it's a lot less sexy to reproduce someone else's findings than to look for something completely new yourself. A good 3/4 of the researchers in the world should just be full-time devoted to trying to reproduce results from other scientists. Honestly, that's all a lot of them are capable of doing competently anyway.

This is a good article on how to avoid p-hacking
.

Here are three action items that you can take to the bench with you to prevent p-hacking and enhance the reliability of your conclusions:

  • Decide your statistical parameters early, and report any changes. This means deciding ahead of time your tests (e.g., performing a two-tailed, equal-variance Student’s T-test for outcome X between group A and B, but not C). If something legitimate came up, such as the variances being decidedly not equal, you could change this parameter—but you should report the rationale behind this change.
  • Decide when to stop collecting data and what composes an outlier beforehand. Decide how many replications will be performed (e.g., each sample will be repeated three times exactly) and at what level (e.g., 2.5 times SD) a sample/replicate will be excluded. This prevents stopping early because you have a desired result, and it prevents repeating until the result is closer to what you desire.
  • Correct for multiple comparisons, and replicate your own result. If you investigate multiple outcomes, be sure your statistics reflect that. If you came across something interesting, but not in the most savory way (i.e., exploratory fishing), test the new hypothesis again under pre-determined experimental conditions to get a true p-value.

If you're failing to do any of those things, your statistical calculations are not legitimate and you're p-hacking.
 
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Professor Emeritus

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I got one for my profession

Pros give lessons to get the player better but if they get them too good too quick or tell the parents too much of how theyre teaching then they will lose them as a client

A lot of pros are scam artists

"Oh yeah little jimmy is improving but he still has a lot to work on:skip:"

Meanwhile they know they could be packing 2 to 3x more info into each lesson than they do

That's so easy to believe. I can imagine someone getting a new client (in any consulting/advisory/coaching field) and thinking, "These are the six things I could tell him to help him improve but once I'm done with those that's about it so I better spread them out."
 

NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong

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That's so easy to believe. I can imagine someone getting a new client (in any consulting/advisory/coaching field) and thinking, "These are the six things I could tell him to help him improve but once I'm done with those that's about it so I better spread them out."

Its true. No one will admit they do it but everyone in the business acknowledges it happens

I dont do it with semis or privates but if im assisting the head guy i just go along with what he wants to do :yeshrug:above my paygrade
 

mbewane

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I guess this is common knowledge but various NGOs/not-for-profit/etc type organizations have to spend money to receive money. Basically if it's public funded, whoever is funding them looks at what was spent this year to determine what will be given next year. If the org spends less, even if it's by managing money better, whoever is funding them uses that as proof that they didn't need that money to being with. So they'll give less money the following year. Consequently, there is no incentive to spend less, since your reward is less budget. Which means that money will be spent for the sake of spending it, even if it's on projects that everyone knows are totally useless.

Also a large part if not the majority of all international aid/cooperation money goes to admin and paying expats, foreign experts to travel to the country that is being "helped". Meaning salaries, plane tickets, health insurance, risk insurance etc...that are paid to people coming from the west to go "help" this or that country. So whenever a country says it's contributing x million dollars to aid/development or help after a natural catastrophe, best believe that a large amount of that money is somehow remaining within the giving country's economy. That's why when people say "Oh but we've been giving millions to those countries and they're still poor", they just don't understand how all of this works.

And obviously, pledging to give money doesn't actually mean giving money.
 

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I guess this is common knowledge but various NGOs/not-for-profit/etc type organizations have to spend money to receive money. Basically if it's public funded, whoever is funding them looks at what was spent this year to determine what will be given next year. If the org spends less, even if it's by managing money better, whoever is funding them uses that as proof that they didn't need that money to being with. So they'll give less money the following year. Consequently, there is no incentive to spend less, since your reward is less budget. Which means that money will be spent for the sake of spending it, even if it's on projects that everyone knows are totally useless.

Also a large part if not the majority of all international aid/cooperation money goes to admin and paying expats, foreign experts to travel to the country that is being "helped". Meaning salaries, plane tickets, health insurance, risk insurance etc...that are paid to people coming from the west to go "help" this or that country. So whenever a country says it's contributing x million dollars to aid/development or help after a natural catastrophe, best believe that a large amount of that money is somehow remaining within the giving country's economy. That's why when people say "Oh but we've been giving millions to those countries and they're still poor", they just don't understand how all of this works.

And obviously, pledging to give money doesn't actually mean giving money.

Yup, I can verify every bit of that.



Also a large part if not the majority of all international aid/cooperation money goes to admin and paying expats, foreign experts to travel to the country that is being "helped". Meaning salaries, plane tickets, health insurance, risk insurance etc...that are paid to people coming from the west to go "help" this or that country. So whenever a country says it's contributing x million dollars to aid/development or help after a natural catastrophe, best believe that a large amount of that money is somehow remaining within the giving country's economy. That's why when people say "Oh but we've been giving millions to those countries and they're still poor", they just don't understand how all of this works.

Really pisses me off when someone says something like, "What's wrong with [insert African country here]? We give them $10 million every year and they never get any better?"

No America, you give YOUR advisers and staff and doctors and farmers and ship owners and politicians, etc. that $10 million a year. All the actual people receive are some advice that may or may not be beneficial, some temporary medical care, and way overpriced food and clothing shipped in for way too much that will do absolutely nothing to help them in the long run and may even hurt.

There are even laws on the books put there by lobbyists (Obama altered some of them but I believe the basis is still there) that state that donated food must come from American farmers and must be shipped by American shipping companies. So when there was a massive famine in northern Ethiopia in the early 2000s, and southern Ethiopian farmers had plenty of food but those farmers were poor and couldn't afford to ship it and give it away for free, the American government promised a bunch of aid but refused to purchase the Ethiopian food that they could have gotten to the suffering regions in a couple of weeks, instead spending millions of dollars to purchase just a third as much food from American farmers, needing 30% of the money for shipping costs alone to the most expensive American shipping companies, and taking three months for the food to actually reach the regions in distress. Meanwhile the southern Ethiopian food rotted in storehouses because everyone was too poor to purchase it that year, those poor farmers had to cut back on planting the next year to avoid another loss, and thus the famine extended an additional year.
 

mbewane

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Yup, I can verify every bit of that.

Really pisses me off when someone says something like, "What's wrong with [insert African country here]? We give them $10 million every year and they never get any better?"

No America, you give YOUR advisers and staff and doctors and farmers and ship owners and politicians, etc. that $10 million a year. All the actual people receive are some advice that may or may not be beneficial, some temporary medical care, and way overpriced food and clothing shipped in for way too much that will do absolutely nothing to help them in the long run and may even hurt.

There are even laws on the books put there by lobbyists (Obama altered some of them but I believe the basis is still there) that state that donated food must come from American farmers and must be shipped by American shipping companies. So when there was a massive famine in northern Ethiopia in the early 2000s, and southern Ethiopian farmers had plenty of food but those farmers were poor and couldn't afford to ship it and give it away for free, the American government promised a bunch of aid but refused to purchase the Ethiopian food that they could have gotten to the suffering regions in a couple of weeks, instead spending millions of dollars to purchase just a third as much food from American farmers, needing 30% of the money for shipping costs alone to the most expensive American shipping companies, and taking three months for the food to actually reach the regions in distress. Meanwhile the southern Ethiopian food rotted in storehouses because everyone was too poor to purchase it that year, those poor farmers had to cut back on planting the next year to avoid another loss, and thus the famine extended an additional year.

Yep, that's exactly it. I know France's case better for the fact that I live here, but it's the same logic. When they "give" money to country X, for example to acquire farming equipment, that money has to be spent buying french farming equipment. Which obviously is probably more expensive than equipment coming from less rich countries. And that equipment has to be shipped all the way from France, probably with engineers and whatnot to show how it works etc. All of that is money staying in the french economy, one way or the other. The whole "we give x million dollars to (insert country)" is one of the most bs pr statements. And indeed, depending on the case it can be detrimental to local economy. There was a case I believe in Togo where France sent millions of anti-mosquito protections (we call it "moustiquaire" in french, the thing you put around your bed to stop mosquitoes from entering). Which is good one would say, except for the fact that there were local business who sold the exact same product. Well now people could get them for free, so all those businesses went bankrupt.
 

Black Panther

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Paul Thomas Miller

@BaronVonBork

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Nov 27

The virus escaped last Saturday
Wait I missed this one wtf is this
Not all of these are serious.
At least we hope not. :picard:

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