New Climate Change Report Warns of Dire Consequences

[acri1]

New Climate Change Report Warns of Dire Consequences

IPCC highlights risks of global warming and closing window of opportunity.

Brian Clark Howard

National Geographic

Published March 31, 2014

The world is not ready for the impacts of climate change, including more extreme weather and the likelihood that populated parts of the planet could be rendered uninhabitable, says the planet's leading body of climate scientists in a major new UN report.

The 772 scientists who wrote and edited the report argue that world leaders have only a few years left to reduce carbon emissions enough to avoid catastrophic warming, which would produce significant sea level rise and large-scale shifts in temperatures that would dramatically disrupt human life and natural ecosystems.

"Observed impacts of climate change are widespread and consequential," according to the report, which is from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and was released Monday morning in Yokohama, Japan.

The report uses stronger language around current impacts of climate change than past IPCC releases.

It warns that the impacts from changing climate are already happening, calling out "high risk levels" for spread of disease in Africa; property loss and mortality due to wildfires in North America; and decreased food production and food quality in South America. (See video: "Global Warming 101.")

The report also warns of more dire consequences to come and says governments are ill-prepared for the effects.

It shows that "today's choices are going to significantly affect the risk that climate change will pose for the rest of the century," says Kelly Levin, a scientist who studies climate change impacts at the World Resources Institute in Washington, D.C.

Frances Beinecke, the president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, called the report an "S.O.S. to the world."

"Crossing a Threshold"

The new report, from a body known as the UN panel's Working Group II, warns that the world is close to missing a chance to limit the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution.

World leaders had previously agreed on a target of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

Beyond that point, "impacts will begin to be unacceptably severe," the authors wrote. (Quiz: What You Don't Know About Climate Science.)

"There is potential for crossing a threshold that leads to large system changes, and that's a very unknown world that has severe consequences," Levin says.

If the warming were to go beyond 6-to-7 degrees Fahrenheit (about four degrees Celsius), she says, as predicted by some climate models, "we would see extensive changes in agriculture."

Even at the lower end of predictions, the report warns: "Climate change will lead to increased frequency, intensity and/or duration of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, warm spells and heat events, drought, intense storm surges and associated sea-level rise."

Levin hopes the report will spur international leaders to negotiate more aggressive attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (How does the greenhouse effect work?)

People Get Ready

Levin says the IPCC report's bottom line is that governments need to invest more in planning for the impacts of climate change. Communities that are already marginalized, she says, including the urban poor, are most at risk.

Some communities should be moved to less risky areas, and support services need to be bolstered, she says: "We need more fast-acting institutions and early-warning systems. We are already committed to significant warming, so adaptation is a great necessity."

Energy companies and governments are actively planning and building the infrastructure that will be in service for decades, she notes. As climate change continues, power plants will need to have enough water for cooling their systems in places that are likely to get hotter and drier.

"Whether we pick a low-emission or high-emission pathway, we may not see changes immediately," Levin says. "But in terms of a century it is a drastically different world."

The new report specifically calls out risks to agriculture.

"In the U.S. we have seen acute effects of severe heat on corn, cotton, and soy yields," says Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University and one of the lead authors of the North American section of the document.

"That kind of severe heat is likely to increase in response to continued global warming," he says.

Understanding the IPCC

The IPCC was founded in 1988 and has released a report on the current state of scientific knowledge about climate change roughly every five years.

The new Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) updates the science since the last report was issued in 2007.

The massive report, running hundreds of pages, is being released in three sections, each prepared by a different working group.

Working Group I focused on the physical science behind climate change; its report was published last September (see the report's five key takeaways).

In April, Working Group III will address how governments can work to mitigate climate change.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...report-global-warming-climate-change-science/


Please enlighten me on the vast global conspiracy the 772 scientists who wrote this report are all in on.

 

[Orbital-Fetus]

people are not trying to hear this.
corporations are not trying to hear this.
nations are not trying to hear this.


they will hear it when it kicks down the door and then rushes in.

 

[newworldafro]

(It went from global warming to climate change .......... ....... so .....the question is climate change anthropogenic derived by industrial and transportation activities ..........

Or is it more.....

Pollution is real we know that, but so is the fact that climate has changed since the earth was formed....

I can't call it....clearly someone(s) is trying to take advantage one way or another .....

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/03/05/north-america-snow-cover/6089667/

North American snow cover at 3rd-highest level on record

 

[acri1]

It went from global warming to climate change .......... ....... so .....the question is climate change anthropogenic derived by industrial and transportation activities ..........

Or is it more.....

Pollution is real we know that, but so is the fact that climate has changed since the earth was formed....

I can't call it....clearly someone is trying to take advantage one way or another .....

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/03/05/north-america-snow-cover/6089667/

North American snow cover at 3rd-highest level on record

So a lot of snow one winter somehow disproves climate change?

Heavy snow events--a contradiction to global warming theory?

Global warming skeptics regularly have a field day whenever a record snow storm pounds the U.S., claiming that such events are inconsistent with a globe that is warming. If the globe is warming, there should, on average, be fewer days when it snows, and thus fewer snow storms. However, it is possible that if climate change is simultaneously causing an increase in ratio of snowstorms with very heavy snow to storms with ordinary amounts of snow, we could actually see an increase in very heavy snowstorms in some portions of the world. There is evidence that this is happening for winter storms in the Northeast U.S.--the mighty Nor'easters like the "Snowmageddon" storm of February 5-6 and "Snowpocalypse" of December 19, 2009. Let's take a look at the evidence. There are two requirements for a record snow storm:

1) A near-record amount of moisture in the air (or a very slow moving storm).
2) Temperatures cold enough for snow.

It's not hard at all to get temperatures cold enough for snow in a world experiencing global warming. According to the2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the globe warmed 0.74°C (1.3°F) over the past 100 years. There will still be colder than average winters in a world that is experiencing warming, with plenty of opportunities for snow. The more difficult ingredient for producing a record snowstorm is the requirement of near-record levels of moisture. Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause flash flooding--will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. This extra moisture in the air will tend to produce heavier snowstorms, assuming it is cold enough to snow. Groisman et al. (2004) found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events in the U.S. over the past 100 years, though mainly in spring and summer. However, the authors did find a significant increase in winter heavy precipitation events have occurred in the Northeast U.S. This was echoed by Changnon et al. (2006), who found, "The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901-2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901-2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity."

The strongest cold-season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent for the U.S.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change." This program has put out some excellent peer-reviewed science on climate change that, in my view, is as authoritative as the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. In 2009, the USGCRP put out its excellent U.S. Climate Impacts Report, summarizing the observed and forecast impacts of climate change on the U.S. The report's main conclusion about cold season storms was " Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent".

The report's more detailed analysis: "Large-scale storm systems are the dominant weather phenomenon during the cold season in the United States. Although the analysis of these storms is complicated by a relatively short length of most observational records and by the highly variable nature of strong storms, some clear patterns have emerged (Kunkel et al., 2008).

Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes (Kunkel et al., 2008). The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights". The study also noted that we should expect an increase in lake-effect snowstorms over the next few decades. Lake-effect snow is produced by the strong flow of cold air across large areas of relatively warmer ice-free water. The report says, "As the climate has warmed, ice coverage on the Great Lakes has fallen. The maximum seasonal coverage of Great Lakes ice decreased at a rate of 8.4 percent per decade from 1973 through 2008, amounting to a roughly 30 percent decrease in ice coverage. This has created conditions conducive to greater evaporation of moisture and thus heavier snowstorms. Among recent extreme lake-effect snow events was a February 2007 10-day storm total of over 10 feet of snow in western New York state. Climate models suggest that lake-effect snowfalls are likely to increase over the next few decades. In the longer term, lake-effect snows are likely to decrease as temperatures continue to rise, with the precipitation then falling as rain".

More heavy snowstorms occur in warmer-than-average years
Another interesting result from the Changnon et al. (2006) paper (Figure 2) is the relationship between heavy snowstorms and the average winter temperature. For the contiguous U.S. between 1900 - 2001, the authors found that 61% - 80% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters with above normal temperatures. In other words, the old adage, "it's too cold to snow", has some truth to it. The authors also found that 61% - 85% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters that were wetter than average. The authors conclude, "a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. The authors found that over the U.S. as a whole, there had been a slight but significant increase in heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches between 1901 - 2000. However, a separate paper by Houston and Changnon (2009), "Characteristics of the top ten snowstorms at First-Order Stations in the U.S.", found that there was no upward or downward trend in the very heaviest snowstorms for the contiguous U.S. between 1948 - 2001, as evaluated by looking at the top ten snowstorms for 121 major cities.

Commentary
One can "load the dice" in favor of events that used to be rare--or unheard of--if the climate is changing to a new state. It is quite possible that nature's weather dice have been loaded in favor of more intense Nor'easters for the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, thanks to the higher levels of moisture present in the air due to warmer global temperatures. It's worth mentioning that heavy snow storms should be getting increasingly rare for the extreme southern portion of the U.S. in coming decades. There's almost always high amounts of moisture available for a potential heavy snow in the South--just not enough cold air. With freezing temperatures expected to decrease and the jet stream and associated storm track expected to move northward, the extreme southern portion of the U.S. should see a reduction in both heavy and ordinary snow storms in the coming decades.

So my point is, w/that bullshyt.

 

[newworldafro]

s

So a lot of snow one winter somehow disproves climate change?





So my point is, w/that bullshyt.

Is it black girl lost ...... or oochie wally......


Is it global warming ?........................................ climate change? ......... did you know global cooling was hot in the street back in the 1970s breh?????

I betcha didnt.......... .............................. .............

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

s

Is it black girl lost ...... or oochie wally......


Is it global warming ?........................................ climate change? ......... did you know global cooling was hot in the street back in the 1970s breh?????

I betcha didnt.......... .............................. .............

Only 10% of climate scientists believed global cooling to be real in the 70's.

I feel like you have already been told this as well as other factual rebuttals to your erroneous talking points on this matter several times over and you are just being willfully ignorant.

 

[newworldafro]

Only 10% of climate scientists believed global cooling to be real in the 70's.

I feel like you have already been told this as well as other factual rebuttals to your erroneous talking points on this matter several times over and you are just being willfully ignorant.

at willfully igorant..... MY VERY 1st THREAD on SOHH was about 2 black environmentalists and both relayed "global warming" as the end all of society ..... but these are theories ...... science is theories

Provide proof.....of your stats... why would Time magazine put that on their front cover multiple times if "top scientist" were saying this, the same way they put "global warming is going to bake us" type covers int he last few years. .........

There are serious/severe environmental issues....I recognize that wholeheartedly..... but explaining the source of climate change/global warming/global cooling (again which is what the earth does) is another story...... have you ever seen the move Ice Age and Ice Age 2, etc .......

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...tic-sea-ice-hit-35-year-record-high-saturday/

Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday
By Jason Samenol

• September 23, 2013 at 3:23 pm

Antarctic sea ice has grown to a record large extent for a second straight year, baffling scientists seeking to understand why this ice is expanding rather than shrinking in a warming world. (Their Baffled Out Here in These Streets)
On Saturday, the ice extent reached 19.51 million square kilometers, according to data posted on the National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site. That number bested record high levels set earlier this month and in 2012 (of 19.48 million square kilometers). Records date back to October 1978.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

at willfully igorant..... MY VERY 1st THREAD on SOHH was about 2 black environmentalists and both relayed "global warming" as the end all of society ..... but these are theories ...... science is theories

Provide proof.....of your stats... why would Time magazine put that on their front cover multiple times if "top scientist" were saying this, the same way they put "global warming is going to bake us" type covers int he last few years. .........

There are serious/severe environmental issues....I recognize that wholeheartedly..... but explaining the source of climate change/global warming/global cooling (again which is what the earth does) is another story...... have you ever seen the move Ice Age and Ice Age 2, etc .......

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...tic-sea-ice-hit-35-year-record-high-saturday/

Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday
By Jason Samenol

• September 23, 2013 at 3:23 pm

Antarctic sea ice has grown to a record large extent for a second straight year, baffling scientists seeking to understand why this ice is expanding rather than shrinking in a warming world. (Their Baffled Out Here in These Streets)
On Saturday, the ice extent reached 19.51 million square kilometers, according to data posted on the National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site. That number bested record high levels set earlier this month and in 2012 (of 19.48 million square kilometers). Records date back to October 1978.

Source:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1


Global cooling was never "hot in these streets." It was conjecture by a small minority of scientists who theorized it in the 70's and some media outlets sensationalized it.




https://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm

Please don't respond to me again unless you've read that link in its entirety.

 

[ManBearPig]

I read that the polar caps are growing.

I don't know who to believe

 

[Prodigital]

Really tired of the one dimensional global warming/cooling debates. Not really here to argue just drop perspective.

Saying the world is going to either cool or warm is stupid and lacks gradient. The earth has preventative feedback loops that scientist have not fully understood, and thinking a couple centuries of data explains a 4 billion year old planet is beyond retarded. The more carbon that gets released, the more forest blossom, the more molecules absorbing light in the atmosphere the cooler the planet. People need to start thinking of our habitat as a leaving reactive organism more.

The only thing i fear is breaking the feedback loop, like too much deforestation or nuclear war. For the most part, we haven't done anything this planet can't handle, just made our stay here a bit more uncomfortable.

 

[Domingo Halliburton]

Really tired of the one dimensional global warming/cooling debates. Not really here to argue just drop perspective.

Saying the world is going to either cool or warm is stupid and lacks gradient. The earth has preventative feedback loops that scientist have not fully understood, and thinking a couple centuries of data explains a 4 billion year old planet is beyond retarded. The more carbon that gets released, the more forest blossom, the more molecules absorbing light in the atmosphere the cooler the planet. People need to start thinking of our habitat as a leaving reactive organism more.

The only thing i fear is breaking the feedback loop, like too much deforestation or nuclear war. For the most part, we haven't done anything this planet can't handle, just made our stay here a bit more uncomfortable.

the thing is at this point it's pretty much turning into a global consensus with scientists that it is real.

 

[Big Jo]

For the most part, we haven't done anything this planet can't handle,

what are you basing that on?

 

[Type Username Here]

what are you basing that on?

It's a planet. To quote George Carlin :

"The planet will be fine. The people are fukked. "

 

[Type Username Here]

 

[Type Username Here]