NVIDIA CEO turns to China after US bars chip sales

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Nvidia's research boss claims the company's Chinese AI researchers are now writing programs for Huawei instead and is blaming the US chip exports​


ByJacob Fox published2 days ago

But is Nvidia really worried?

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Images of Nvidia's Blackwell GPU from GTC.


(Image credit: Nvidia)

Nvidia's been banging the drum against the United State's China chip export restrictions for a while now, but while it had previously highlighted this in broad terms, the company now seems to be getting more direct with its claims. According to a machine translation of a report from Taiwan Economic Daily (via Wccftech), Nvidia's chief scientist and senior VP of research, Bill Dally, claims that Huawei is scooping up ex-Nvidia AI researchers as a result of the restrictions.

According to Dally, admittedly via a machine translation, the growth in the number of AI researchers working in China—apparently growing from a third of the world's researchers in 2019 to almost half of them today—has been forced by the US export restrictions. The idea is that without these restrictions, Huawei wouldn't be forced to lean so strongly into home-grown AI solutions, but now it must do so to keep up.

Nvidia is clearly keen on presenting this argument (probably in hopes that the US administration specifically will hear it) to show that there are arguable downsides of banning its exports to China for the US. It certainly appeals to the ears of those concerned about the US-China technological arms race.

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As I said, though, the general argument isn't new—Nvidia has been touting it for a while. At Computex last month, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said: "AI researchers are still doing AI research in China" and "if they don’t have enough Nvidia, they will use their own [chips]." And regarding Huawei specifically, Huang said the company has become "quite formidable".

There is, of course, another reason other than US national interest that might make Nvidia keen to highlight possible negatives of export controls. Namely, the fact that these restrictions have cost and will cost the company lots of money.

Jensen Huang looking at an Nvidia RTX Pro Server at the Nvidia keynote at Computex 2025


(Image credit: Nvidia)

Nvidia itself has confirmed this, stating that after billions of dollars lost through restrictions of its H20 chips to China in Q1, it's expecting another $8 billion to be lost for the same reason in Q2. That's because Hopper, the company's previous chip architecture, "is no longer an option", according to the CEO.

Huawei's latest Ascend 910 and 920 chips, courtesy of China's SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), will probably now be better options for Chinese AI companies than trying to get hands on Nvidia silicon somehow.

And with ex-Nvidia researchers now apparently padding out the Chinese industry, who knows what will be cooked up next and when. Nvidia certainly seems to be presenting itself as worried about what's to come.

The company can't complain about the vaguely 'poachy' aspect of this, though, really—not when Nvidia seems to be enticing likely TSMC employees in Taiwan with high salary job advertisements. Sometimes business is just business, you know?
 

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A timeline of the US semiconductor market in 2025​


Rebecca Szkutak

4:06 AM PDT · June 19, 2025


It’s already been a tumultuous year for the U.S. semiconductor industry.

The semiconductor industry plays a sizable role in the “AI race” that the U.S. seems determined to win, which is why this context is worth paying attention to: from Intel’s appointment of Lip-Bu Tan to CEO — who wasted no time getting to work trying to revitalize the legacy company — to Joe Biden proposing sweeping new AI chip export rules on his way out of office that never came to fruition.

Here’s a look at what’s happened in the first half of 2025.

June​

Intel appoints new leadership​

June 18: Intel announced four new leadership appointments that Intel says will help it move toward its goal of becoming an engineering-first company again. Intel announced a new chief revenue officer in addition to multiple high-profile engineering hires.

Intel to begin layoffs​

June 17: Intel will begin to lay off a significant chunk of its Intel Foundry staff in July. The company plans to eliminate at least 15%, and up to 20%, of workers in that business unit. These layoffs aren’t a shock: It was rumored back in April, and Intel’s CEO Lip-Bu Tan has said he wants to flatten the organization.

Nvidia won’t report on China​

June 13: Nvidia isn’t counting on the U.S. backing off of its AI chip export restrictions anytime soon. After the company took a financial hit from the newly imposed licensing requirements on its H20 AI chips, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company will no longer include the Chinese market in future revenue and profit forecasts.

AMD acquires the team behind Untether AI​

June 6: AMD makes another acquisition — this time focused on talent. The company acqui-hired the team behind Untether AI, which develops AI inference chips, as the semiconductor giant continues to round out its AI offerings.


AMD is coming for Nvidia’s AI hardware dominance​

June 4: AMD continued its shopping spree. The company acquired AI software optimization startup Brium, which helps companies retrofit AI software to work with different AI hardware. With a lot of AI software being designed with Nvidia hardware in mind, this acquisition isn’t surprising.

May​

Nvidia lays out the impact of chip export restrictions​

May 28: Nvidia reported that U.S. licensing requirements on its H20 AI chips cost the company $4.5 billion in charges during Q1. The company expects these requirements to result in an $8 billion hit to Nvidia’s revenue in Q2.

AMD acquires Enosemi​

May 28: AMD kicks off its acquisition spree. The semiconductor company announced that it acquired Enosemi, a silicon photonics startup. Enosemi’s tech, which uses light photons to transmit data, is becoming an increasing area of interest for semiconductor companies.

Tensions start to flare between China and the U.S.​

May 21: China’s Commerce Secretary didn’t like the U.S.’s guidance, issued on May 13, that warned U.S. companies that using Huawei’s AI chips “anywhere in the world” was a U.S. chip export violation. The commerce secretary issued a statement that threatened legal action against anyone caught enforcing that export restriction.

Intel may be starting to offload its non-core units​

May 20: Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan seemingly got right to work on his plan to spin out Intel’s non-core business units. The semiconductor giant is reportedly looking to offload its networking and edge units, which makes chips for telecom equipment, and was responsible for $5.4 billion of the company’s 2024 revenue.

The Biden administration’s AI Diffusion rule is officially dead​

May 13: Just days before the Biden administration’s Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Rule was set to go into place, the U.S. Department of Commerce formally rescinded it. The DOC said that it plans to issue new guidance in the future, and in the meantime companies should remember that using Huawei’s Ascend AI chips anywhere in the world is a violation of U.S. export rules.

A last-minute reversal​

May 7: Just a week before the “Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion” was set to go into place, the Trump administration plans on taking a different path. According to multiple media outlets, including Axios and Bloomberg, the administration won’t enforce the restrictions when they were supposed to start on May 15 and is instead working on its own framework.

April​

Anthropic doubles down on its support of chip export restrictions​

April 30: Anthropic doubled down on its support for restricting U.S.-made chip exports, including some tweaks to the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion, like imposing further restrictions on Tier 2 countries and dedicating resources to enforcement. An Nvidia spokesperson shot back, saying, “American firms should focus on innovation and rise to the challenge, rather than tell tall tales that large, heavy, and sensitive electronics are somehow smuggled in ‘baby bumps’ or ‘alongside live lobsters.’”

Planned layoffs at Intel​

April 22: Ahead of its Q1 earnings call, Intel said it was planning to lay off more than 21,000 employees. The layoffs were meant to streamline management, something CEO Lip-Bu Tan has long said Intel needed to do, and help rebuild the company’s engineering focus.

The Trump administration further restricts chip exports​

April 15: Nvidia’s H20 AI chip got hit with an export licensing requirement, the company disclosed in an SEC filing. The company added it expects $5.5 billion in charges related to this new requirement in the first quarter of its 2026 fiscal year. The H20 is the most advanced AI chip Nvidia can still export to China in some form or fashion. TSMC and Intel reported similar expenses the same week.

Nvidia appears to talk its way out of further chip exports​

April 9: Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang was spotted attending dinner at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, according to reports. At the time, NPR reported Huang may have been able to spare Nvidia’s H20 AI chips from export restrictions upon agreeing to invest in AI data centers in the U.S.

An alleged agreement between Intel and TSMC​

April 3: Intel and TSMC allegedly reached a tentative agreement to launch a joint chipmaking venture. This joint venture would operate Intel’s chipmaking facilities, and TSMC would have a 20% stake in the new venture. Both companies declined to comment or confirm. If this deal doesn’t come to fruition, this is likely a decent preview of potential deals in this industry to come.

Intel spins off noncore assets, announces new initiative​

April 1: CEO Lip-Bu Tan got to work right away. Just weeks after he joined Intel, the company announced that it was going to spin off noncore assets so it could focus. He also said the company would launch new products, including custom semiconductors for customers.

March​

Intel names a new CEO​

March 12: Intel announced that industry veteran, and former board member, Lip-Bu Tan would return to the company as CEO on March 18. At the time of his appointment, Tan said Intel would be an “engineering-focused company” under his leadership.

February​

Intel’s Ohio chip plant gets delayed again​

February 28: Intel was supposed to start operating its first chip fabrication plant in Ohio this year. Instead, the company slowed down construction on the plant for the second time in February. Now the $28 billion semiconductor project won’t wrap up construction until 2030 and may not even open until 2031.

Senators call for more chip export restrictions​

February 3: U.S. senators, including Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo), wrote a letter to Commerce Secretary Nominee-Designate Howard Lutnick urging the Trump administration to further restrict AI chip exports. The letter specifically referred to Nvidia’s H20 AI chips, which were used in the training of DeepSeek’s R1 “reasoning” model.

January​

DeepSeek releases its open “reasoning” model​

January 27: Chinese AI startup DeepSeek caused quite the stir in Silicon Valley when it released the open version of its R1 “reasoning” model. While this isn’t semiconductor news specifically, the sheer alarm in the AI and semiconductor industries DeepSeek’s release caused continues to have ripple effects on the chip industry.

Joe Biden’s executive order on chip exports​

January 13: With just a week left in office, former president Joe Biden proposed sweeping new export restrictions on U.S.-made AI chips. This order created a three-tier structure that determined how many U.S. chips can be exported to each country. Under this proposal, Tier 1 countries faced no restrictions; Tier 2 countries had a chip purchase limit for the first time; and Tier 3 countries got additional restrictions.

Anthropic’s Dario Amodei weighs in on chip export restrictions​

January 6: Anthropic co-founder and CEO Dario Amodei co-wrote an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal endorsing existing AI chip export controls and pointing to them as a reason why China’s AI market was behind the U.S.’. He also called on incoming president Donald Trump to impose further restrictions and to close loopholes that have allowed AI companies in China to still get their hands on these chips.
 

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The U.S. May Change Strategy in Its Battle With China for AI Dominance​


China’s AI messaging is starting to sound like “AI for all,” but the United States is split on its own tactic.

Ece Yildirim Published July 29, 2025 | Comments (24)

TrumpXi.jpg
© Qilai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images

This weekend, Shanghai was host to China’s annual “World Artificial Intelligence Conference,” a government-organized AI showcase packed with tech giants from both China and the U.S. including Huawei, Tesla, and Amazon.

The theme was “Global Solidarity in the AI Era,” and Chinese Premier Li Qiang opened the conference with a sweeping proposal: the establishment of a global AI cooperation organization, potentially headquartered in Shanghai. The Chinese foreign ministry has since released an action plan calling for international collaboration in AI through open-source communities and joint research.

While China’s AI messaging is starting to sound like “AI for all,” the United States is still split on its own battle tactic. The Trump administration has welded an isolationist trade approach globally, and particularly with China when it comes to AI and technology. But with recent policy changes, that hardline has seemed to soften as Washington is split between two camps on how to approach the battle for AI dominance with China: that is, whether to continue with a heavily protectionist approach or join China’s calls for solidarity.

A tense year in AI geopolitics​


Beijing’s invitation to rally behind a Chinese vision of AI cooperation landed in the middle of a tense year in AI geopolitics.

The United States has been the global leader in AI development, but domestic confidence in America’s competitive edge was shaken earlier this year. Following the meteoric success of Chinese AI company Deepseek’s low-cost yet high-performance model, the Trump administration took a hard line on advanced technology exports to China.

The administration attempted to slam the brakes on Beijing’s hardware access by further tightening existing export controls on advanced Nvidia chips to China, in an effort to curb the country’s rapid innovation, starve its AI ecosystem, and preserve U.S. dominance.

But the ban hasn’t gone exactly to plan.

A Financial Times report from last week revealed that roughly $1 billion worth of Nvidia’s banned advanced B200 chips had been smuggled into China in the three months since the export controls went into effect.

The administration changed course on the ban and quietly retreated from its hard-line stance earlier this month, when Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced that the company would resume selling its older H20 chips legally to China.

Notably, the FT found that Chinese black market demand for the smuggled B200s faced a noticeable drop after the relaxation of the H20 ban, suggesting that Chinese companies would rather take legal access to older chips over the highest technology illegally (companies who buy smuggled chips can’t take advantage of important Nvidia customer support when installing them in their own data centers). The implications of this finding could throw the logic of blanket export bans into question.

Dominance through solidarity​


China isn’t proposing global solidarity in AI development out of the goodness of its heart. Open cooperation and joint research not only helps the development of AI technology in China, but it is also a soft power play by China. By centering this cooperation in Shanghai and under Chinese terms and values, Beijing is trying to cement its position in the global AI trade, potentially achieving global AI dominance over the U.S.

But Trump has made it clear that he wants America to win that battle.

“America is the country that started the AI race, and as President of the United States, I’m here to declare that America is going to win it,” Trump said while announcing the measures last week.

The U.S. government’s fears are twofold when it comes to AI and China: losing economic edge and jeopardizing national security.

Currently, the Chinese AI industry is dependent on American chipmakers like Nvidia. Skeptics of blanket export bans say that if China has no access to advanced American AI technology, it will have no choice but to develop its own. And if China builds a true rival to Nvidia and gains self-sufficiency in AI hardware, the U.S. may lose its grip on the global AI market. At the center of these concerns is Chinese tech giant Huawei, which is already developing AI computing systems that rival Nvidia’s most advanced products.

Advocates of this approach in Washington hope to have more control over the scale of innovation in China by flooding the market with American products. And especially by controlling what chips go into the country, the U.S. could help curb the proliferation of more advanced chip technology in China. The Trump administration’s recent move to ease restrictions on older Nvidia chip models could be following this logic, and might be bearing its fruits already, at least according to the Financial Times’ findings.



The case for techno-nationalism​


It’s two steps forward and one step back.

Although the U.S. has seemed to relax the rules on chip exports into China, the Trump administration is eager to continue the government’s hard line based on the President’s AI Action Plan that was unveiled last week.

“Advanced AI compute is essential to the AI era, enabling both economic dynamism and novel military capabilities,” the administration wrote in the action plan. “Denying our foreign adversaries access to this resource, then, is a matter of both geostrategic competition and national security. Therefore, we should pursue creative approaches to export control enforcement.”

Proponents of stricter export controls have sizable national security concerns when it comes to China’s AI development.

Chinese AI companies proved that you don’t need the latest hardware to make AI that outperforms benchmarks, with the release of both Deepseek and Alibaba-backed Kimi K2 this year. Even though newer chips are kept out of China while the older ones dominate chip sales, that does not necessarily mean that state-of-the-art AI models that rival or even exceed American ones can’t be developed. Going even beyond just market competition, these models could pose security risks when deployed for use in the Chinese military.

While China and the U.S. are not in direct military conflict, tensions are high between the two superpowers, particularly over China’s territorial claims in Taiwan and the South China Sea and American involvement in the region.

Trade talks and the next phase​


All of this comes as U.S. and China trade envoys are meeting in Stockholm this week to discuss what exactly the long game is here. The countries are expected to decide on a tariff agreement or opt for yet another extension of the previously granted truce that is set to expire on August 12.

The outcome of these talks, no matter what, is likely to have implications going even beyond what’s stated on paper. It could very well set the stage for the next phase of the war over global AI dominance.

China
 

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Trump is taxing Nvidia and AMD 15% of their China chip sales revenues.


"POTUS is more progressive when it comes to taxation than anyone in the progressive wing of the Dems has ever been. The Dems should be celebrating just how progressive it is. The irony," Cuban wrote on X.



And to nobody's surprise, a Dem is bytching about taxing corps
"On Capitol Hill, Democrat Krishnamoorthi has signaled the committee's intent to scrutinize the deal, warning it risks undermining America's credibility in enforcing export controls. If challenges emerge, they could also pull in trade law disputes at the World Trade Organization, where U.S. trading partners may view the measure as discriminatory or beyond the bounds of standard licensing fees."
 

bnew

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Trump is taxing Nvidia and AMD 15% of their China chip sales revenues.


"POTUS is more progressive when it comes to taxation than anyone in the progressive wing of the Dems has ever been. The Dems should be celebrating just how progressive it is. The irony," Cuban wrote on X.



And to nobody's surprise, a Dem is bytching about taxing corps
"On Capitol Hill, Democrat Krishnamoorthi has signaled the committee's intent to scrutinize the deal, warning it risks undermining America's credibility in enforcing export controls. If challenges emerge, they could also pull in trade law disputes at the World Trade Organization, where U.S. trading partners may view the measure as discriminatory or beyond the bounds of standard licensing fees."


why stop at china, why not tax revenue from arms sales to foreign governments too?

the revenue from a credible wealth tax would far exceed any of that revenue tax policy trump has planed by hundreds of billions of dollars annually



We have analyzed Senator Sanders’ proposal to impose a progressive annual wealth tax on American households with net worth (sum of all assets net of debts) above $32 million. The tax rate would start at 1% of net worth from $32 to $50 million, increase to 2% on net worth from $50 to $250 million, 3% from $250 to $500 million, 4% from $500 million to $1 billion, 5% from $1 to $2.5 billion, 6% from $2.5 to $5 billion, 7% from $5 to $10 billion, and 8% on wealth over $10 billion (the brackets apply for married taxpayers and are halved for singles). The wealth tax would have a comprehensive tax base with no exemptions and would be vigorously enforced to keep tax evasion low. We estimate that about 180,000 American households (about the top 0.1%) would be liable for the wealth tax and that the tax would raise around $4.35 trillion over the ten-year budget window 2019-2028. The wealth tax would raise
approximately 1.6% of GDP per year ($335 billion relative to a $21.5 trillion GDP in 2019).

 
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