Real Clear Average (as of 10-19):
Northam (D) - 49.3 (+5.8)
Gillespie (R) - 43.5
Cliff Hyra (L) - 2.1
VA 2016 Presidential Election Results (for comparison sake):
Clinton (D) - 49.73 (+5.32)
Trump (R) - 44.41
Johnson (L) - 2.97
McMullin (I) - 1.36
Stein (G) - 0.69
RealClearPolitics - Election 2017 - Virginia Governor - Gillespie vs. Northam
Close Virginia governor polls set Democratic nerves on edge
Democrat Ralph Northam has led narrowly in most polls, but concerns about his campaign and the ghosts of 2016 have his party feeling anxious.
By KEVIN ROBILLARD
10/18/2017 07:08 PM EDT
Democrat Ralph Northam’s financial advantage has allowed him to outspend Republican Ed Gillespie (left) on the TV airwaves by about $600,000 each of the last two weeks. | Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post via AP, Pool
Democrat Ralph Northam is leading most polls of the Virginia governor’s race. He has millions more to spend in the closing weeks of the race than Ed Gillespie, the Republican nominee. And he’s aired more television ads than Gillespie over the last month.
But despite all of that, Democrats are growing increasingly anxious about the too-close-to-call campaign. While Northam has held leads ranging from a few points to double digits in most polls, the first survey in months showing Gillespie with a 1-point edge came out just weeks before Election Day — and in any case, after overconfidence in 2016, almost no polling lead could relieve Democratic worrying. Some in Northam’s party are concerned about his campaign’s decision to outsource its digital advertising to outside groups. And others were dismayed to see the campaign leave the party’s black lieutenant gubernatorial nominee off some fliers distributed by a union.
Democrats are pouring star power into the race to give Northam a late boost, with former President Barack Obama set to campaign for the lieutenant governor on Thursday, following a weekend appearance by former Vice President Joe Biden. They hope that Obama’s appearance will electrify the voters that helped him carry Virginia twice, turning it from a state where Democrats occasionally enjoyed victories to one where they feel the weight of expectations, especially now as the party seeks to rebuild after President Donald Trump’s election.
“People’s anxiety comes from the fact that the Democratic coalition doesn’t always show up in these off-year elections, and there’s an erosion of confidence in polling,” said former Rep. Tom Perriello, who lost to Northam in the Democratic primary in June. He described the mood in the party as “anxious optimism.”
Even Democrats’ revulsion at Gillespie’s aggressive advertising strategy, which has linked Northam to gang violence and defended Confederate monuments, is also tinged with anxiety that they may not fully understand the forces that move the electorate in the Trump era.
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Gillespie has spent the fall airing TV ads attacking Northam for casting a vote against banning sanctuary cities in the state. While Virginia has no sanctuary cities, Gillespie’s ads blame Northam’s vote for a resurgence of the gang MS-13. The ads often highlight the group’s supposed motto, “KILL. RAPE. CONTROL.”
Perriello said Gillespie’s campaign was “racist,” but admitted Democrats are unsure about its effectiveness.
“Everybody feels like that’s probably desperation,” he said. “But Gillespie is also a Machiavellian political operative, and he’s doing this because he thinks it will work.” Perriello noted Gillespie helped spearhead ballot measure campaigns banning same-sex marriage in 2004 to help President George W. Bush win reelection.
Not all Democrats are concerned over the tight polls in Virginia governor’s race. People familiar with the Northam campaign’s internal polling said the surveys show Gillespie’s ads have not changed the race, and, after all, the polling average has shown Northam ahead for months.
Republicans, meanwhile, are torn over how much Gillespie should embrace Trump.
Democrats have already argued the race has led to the “Trumpification” of Gillespie, who was for decades a pillar of the GOP establishment and a proponent of welcoming minorities into the party. This year, Gillespie has adopted his conservative primary challenger’s emphasis on protecting Confederate statues and combating illegal immigration.
Democrats, and some Republicans outside the campaign, see Gillespie failing to unite and inspire the GOP base and cynically using Trump-inspired campaign tactics to make up for it, even though Trump remains unpopular in Virginia after losing the state in 2016.
Former GOP Rep. Tom Davis, who long represented a swing district in Northern Virginia, said Trump’s recent endorsement is likely to help Gillespie consolidate Republicans.
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“Gillespie significantly underperformed among Trump voters in Trump territory in the primary. He has an enthusiasm gap,” Davis said. “He’s got to get his base. Republicans have a hard time in this state even when they have their base.”
Gillespie’s allies see something different: an experienced operative trying to win over swing voters with issues likely to pull independent voters into his column. They note that Gillespie’s opposition to removing Confederate monuments or allowing sanctuary cities is popular among Virginia voters.
“Everyone thinks we’re talking about these issues because they move the base,” said one Gillespie ally who requested anonymity to speak frankly about campaign strategy. “But they actually move independent voters.”
The Gillespie campaign may have some help turning out base voters. A nonprofit founded by former aides to Trump’s campaign is launching a campaign to turn out disaffected thousands of “patriotic” voters in state and local elections in Virginia next month. While it’s not allowed to officially endorse Gillespie, the voters it is targeting align with the type of voters Gillespie needs to win.
The group is targeting 12,000 voters in Virginia who haven’t shown up at the polls since 2009, despite being registered to vote. It used information from L2, a voter-data firm, to identify the voters, who are likely to support strong borders, see police as allies and oppose free trade deals.
“These are citizens who are routinely ignored by establishment organizations unwilling to do the hard work of reaching out to them and even more reluctant to address their concerns on issues like immigration, sanctuary cities, refugees, trade and economics,” said Matt Braynard, one of the group’s co-founders.
Meanwhile, Northam is encountering problems with his own base. Liberal groups criticized his campaign for leaving Justin Fairfax, the party’s lieutenant governor nominee, off literature distributed by a union that was backing Northam but not Fairfax because of the latter’s opposition to two pipeline projects.
“It is sad, disturbing and disheartening that efforts to elect Democrats led by progressive partners would intentionally exclude the only black candidate on the statewide ticket, especially when black voters were so critical to Democrats winning statewide four years ago,” said Quentin James, the founder of Collective PAC, which backs African-American Democrats. James’ statement called the decision “subtle racism.”
David Turner, a spokesman for Northam, noted Fairfax was left off a tiny number of mailers, about 0.5 percent of the total of 3 million pieces printed for the campaign.
“This is a strong ticket and one that is working well together,” Turner said. "One piece of literature carried by [Laborers' International Union of North America] canvassers does not change that.”
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Northam will have a major advantage to press in the final days: money. Northam raised just shy of $7.2 million in September and has $5.6 million on hand at the end of the month. Gillespie, despite years as one of the most prominent GOP operatives in Washington, brought in $4.3 million and has $2.6 million on hand. And while Democrats fret about the base’s enthusiasm for Northam, he’s brought in nearly 7,000 donations under $1,000 compared to Gillespie’s 2,700.
Northam is not spending much of that money on digital advertising, and some strategists have questioned his campaign’s decision to outsource that to outside groups including Planned Parenthood, the League of Conservation Voters and the Democratic super PAC Priorities USA. The Northam campaign has played a direct role in coordinating the spending, and some Virginia Democrats have suggested it’s the best way to balance the demands of coalition politics.
Northam’s financial advantage has allowed him to outspend Gillespie on the TV airwaves by about $600,000 each of the last two weeks. Gillespie increased his ad buy this week by about $300,000 and the National Rifle Association began airing ads, drawing him roughly even with Northam for the week ahead.
On Wednesday, the Gillespie campaign released a new ad, this one attacking Northam and Gov. Terry McAuliffe for canceling a meeting with the Virginia Sheriffs’ Association.
“Ralph Northam. Not showing up for his job,” a narrator says in the 30-second ad. “Not making Virginia safer.”
Close Virginia governor polls set Democratic nerves on edge
Northam (D) - 49.3 (+5.8)
Gillespie (R) - 43.5
Cliff Hyra (L) - 2.1
VA 2016 Presidential Election Results (for comparison sake):
Clinton (D) - 49.73 (+5.32)
Trump (R) - 44.41
Johnson (L) - 2.97
McMullin (I) - 1.36
Stein (G) - 0.69
RealClearPolitics - Election 2017 - Virginia Governor - Gillespie vs. Northam
Close Virginia governor polls set Democratic nerves on edge
Democrat Ralph Northam has led narrowly in most polls, but concerns about his campaign and the ghosts of 2016 have his party feeling anxious.
By KEVIN ROBILLARD
10/18/2017 07:08 PM EDT
Democrat Ralph Northam’s financial advantage has allowed him to outspend Republican Ed Gillespie (left) on the TV airwaves by about $600,000 each of the last two weeks. | Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post via AP, Pool
Democrat Ralph Northam is leading most polls of the Virginia governor’s race. He has millions more to spend in the closing weeks of the race than Ed Gillespie, the Republican nominee. And he’s aired more television ads than Gillespie over the last month.
But despite all of that, Democrats are growing increasingly anxious about the too-close-to-call campaign. While Northam has held leads ranging from a few points to double digits in most polls, the first survey in months showing Gillespie with a 1-point edge came out just weeks before Election Day — and in any case, after overconfidence in 2016, almost no polling lead could relieve Democratic worrying. Some in Northam’s party are concerned about his campaign’s decision to outsource its digital advertising to outside groups. And others were dismayed to see the campaign leave the party’s black lieutenant gubernatorial nominee off some fliers distributed by a union.
Democrats are pouring star power into the race to give Northam a late boost, with former President Barack Obama set to campaign for the lieutenant governor on Thursday, following a weekend appearance by former Vice President Joe Biden. They hope that Obama’s appearance will electrify the voters that helped him carry Virginia twice, turning it from a state where Democrats occasionally enjoyed victories to one where they feel the weight of expectations, especially now as the party seeks to rebuild after President Donald Trump’s election.
“People’s anxiety comes from the fact that the Democratic coalition doesn’t always show up in these off-year elections, and there’s an erosion of confidence in polling,” said former Rep. Tom Perriello, who lost to Northam in the Democratic primary in June. He described the mood in the party as “anxious optimism.”
Even Democrats’ revulsion at Gillespie’s aggressive advertising strategy, which has linked Northam to gang violence and defended Confederate monuments, is also tinged with anxiety that they may not fully understand the forces that move the electorate in the Trump era.
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Your guide to the permanent campaign — weekday mornings, in your inbox.
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Gillespie has spent the fall airing TV ads attacking Northam for casting a vote against banning sanctuary cities in the state. While Virginia has no sanctuary cities, Gillespie’s ads blame Northam’s vote for a resurgence of the gang MS-13. The ads often highlight the group’s supposed motto, “KILL. RAPE. CONTROL.”
Perriello said Gillespie’s campaign was “racist,” but admitted Democrats are unsure about its effectiveness.
“Everybody feels like that’s probably desperation,” he said. “But Gillespie is also a Machiavellian political operative, and he’s doing this because he thinks it will work.” Perriello noted Gillespie helped spearhead ballot measure campaigns banning same-sex marriage in 2004 to help President George W. Bush win reelection.
Not all Democrats are concerned over the tight polls in Virginia governor’s race. People familiar with the Northam campaign’s internal polling said the surveys show Gillespie’s ads have not changed the race, and, after all, the polling average has shown Northam ahead for months.
Republicans, meanwhile, are torn over how much Gillespie should embrace Trump.
Democrats have already argued the race has led to the “Trumpification” of Gillespie, who was for decades a pillar of the GOP establishment and a proponent of welcoming minorities into the party. This year, Gillespie has adopted his conservative primary challenger’s emphasis on protecting Confederate statues and combating illegal immigration.
Democrats, and some Republicans outside the campaign, see Gillespie failing to unite and inspire the GOP base and cynically using Trump-inspired campaign tactics to make up for it, even though Trump remains unpopular in Virginia after losing the state in 2016.
Former GOP Rep. Tom Davis, who long represented a swing district in Northern Virginia, said Trump’s recent endorsement is likely to help Gillespie consolidate Republicans.
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“Gillespie significantly underperformed among Trump voters in Trump territory in the primary. He has an enthusiasm gap,” Davis said. “He’s got to get his base. Republicans have a hard time in this state even when they have their base.”
Gillespie’s allies see something different: an experienced operative trying to win over swing voters with issues likely to pull independent voters into his column. They note that Gillespie’s opposition to removing Confederate monuments or allowing sanctuary cities is popular among Virginia voters.
“Everyone thinks we’re talking about these issues because they move the base,” said one Gillespie ally who requested anonymity to speak frankly about campaign strategy. “But they actually move independent voters.”
The Gillespie campaign may have some help turning out base voters. A nonprofit founded by former aides to Trump’s campaign is launching a campaign to turn out disaffected thousands of “patriotic” voters in state and local elections in Virginia next month. While it’s not allowed to officially endorse Gillespie, the voters it is targeting align with the type of voters Gillespie needs to win.
The group is targeting 12,000 voters in Virginia who haven’t shown up at the polls since 2009, despite being registered to vote. It used information from L2, a voter-data firm, to identify the voters, who are likely to support strong borders, see police as allies and oppose free trade deals.
“These are citizens who are routinely ignored by establishment organizations unwilling to do the hard work of reaching out to them and even more reluctant to address their concerns on issues like immigration, sanctuary cities, refugees, trade and economics,” said Matt Braynard, one of the group’s co-founders.
Meanwhile, Northam is encountering problems with his own base. Liberal groups criticized his campaign for leaving Justin Fairfax, the party’s lieutenant governor nominee, off literature distributed by a union that was backing Northam but not Fairfax because of the latter’s opposition to two pipeline projects.
“It is sad, disturbing and disheartening that efforts to elect Democrats led by progressive partners would intentionally exclude the only black candidate on the statewide ticket, especially when black voters were so critical to Democrats winning statewide four years ago,” said Quentin James, the founder of Collective PAC, which backs African-American Democrats. James’ statement called the decision “subtle racism.”
David Turner, a spokesman for Northam, noted Fairfax was left off a tiny number of mailers, about 0.5 percent of the total of 3 million pieces printed for the campaign.
“This is a strong ticket and one that is working well together,” Turner said. "One piece of literature carried by [Laborers' International Union of North America] canvassers does not change that.”
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Northam will have a major advantage to press in the final days: money. Northam raised just shy of $7.2 million in September and has $5.6 million on hand at the end of the month. Gillespie, despite years as one of the most prominent GOP operatives in Washington, brought in $4.3 million and has $2.6 million on hand. And while Democrats fret about the base’s enthusiasm for Northam, he’s brought in nearly 7,000 donations under $1,000 compared to Gillespie’s 2,700.
Northam is not spending much of that money on digital advertising, and some strategists have questioned his campaign’s decision to outsource that to outside groups including Planned Parenthood, the League of Conservation Voters and the Democratic super PAC Priorities USA. The Northam campaign has played a direct role in coordinating the spending, and some Virginia Democrats have suggested it’s the best way to balance the demands of coalition politics.
Northam’s financial advantage has allowed him to outspend Gillespie on the TV airwaves by about $600,000 each of the last two weeks. Gillespie increased his ad buy this week by about $300,000 and the National Rifle Association began airing ads, drawing him roughly even with Northam for the week ahead.
On Wednesday, the Gillespie campaign released a new ad, this one attacking Northam and Gov. Terry McAuliffe for canceling a meeting with the Virginia Sheriffs’ Association.
“Ralph Northam. Not showing up for his job,” a narrator says in the 30-second ad. “Not making Virginia safer.”
Close Virginia governor polls set Democratic nerves on edge
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