Roster Reload: Trail Blazers
Portland's 2014 playoff foray resembled the Cinderella run of a mid-major college in March: they pulled off an exciting first-round victory only to be summarily banished before a live audience against a far superior opponent. There should be no cause for shame among the Blazers' faithful. On the contrary, Portland's future looks rosier than ever (no pun intended).
General manager Neil Olshey did an excellent job of plugging the biggest holes with talent that complemented the existing roster perfectly, but his job is far from done, and the Blazers must find a way to keep adding talent and keep improving on the strong campaign put together in 2013-14.
Here's a look at some of the ways they might do that.
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 48.3 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: The continued development and progression of Damian Lillard was nothing short of remarkable, as he made his first All-Star appearance in just his second season. Lillard's poise during the first playoff series of his career was noteworthy, although his inexperience became more evident in the second round against San Antonio, a team built to exploit any weakness. His ability to navigate off the dribble needs to improve, as does his effort on the defensive end, but overall Lillard was fantastic this year. LaMarcus Aldridge raised his level of play as the offensive workhorse that carried Portland through the season, a role that was no doubt made easier by the presence of Robin Lopez, who carried out much of the big-man dirty work and served as the defensive anchor the Blazers' starting lineup needed. On the wings, Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews were versatile defensively and excellent spacers. Overall, Portland's starting lineup was one of the most complete and efficient in the NBA.
Doolittle: Clearly, the Trail Blazers are moving in the right direction. They leaped from 33 to 54 wins, improved 12 places to fifth in offensive efficiency and jumped 10 places to 16th on the defensive end. And they did so with the same core players, supplemented by experience and a couple of additions among the role players. The concern, if you want to call it that, about Lillard entering the season was that as a four-year college player, he might have entered the NBA near his ceiling. Well, he improved his winning percentage from .505 to .566, and still has plenty of room for improvement on the defensive end. Aldridge is smack in his prime, but will be near 30 by the end of next season, the last of his current contract. His impact on the Blazers is considerable despite a WARP (7.1) that ranked just 34th in the league, largely a function of a true shooting percentage that has tumbled from .560 to .507 over the last two years. Nevertheless, Aldridge's RPM of plus-5.05 ranked 10th in the league, and for most of the playoffs he certainly looked the part of a franchise player. The average age of the Portland starters next season will be 28, a fine age for a title contender.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: The Blazers' bench desperately needs help, although it's not as bad as it was a year ago. Mo Williams was a solid pickup, Thomas Robinson showed flashes and Dorell Wright had some memorable moments in the playoffs. Still, there's a major need for more shooting, more defense and a bona fide backup center for Lopez. Some of those concerns will be addressed by C.J. McCollum and Will Barton, but Joel Freeland looked outmatched most times and Meyers Leonard, for the time being, looks incapable of figuring out who he is and what he needs to be in this league. Some backup centers on the unrestricted market include Cole Aldrich and Aaron Gray, as solid "beat 'em up" players; a restricted free agent who could be a nice fit is Ekpe Udoh, as a long, defensive stalwart.
Doolittle: Barring a trade, there likely isn't going to be a whole lot of movement on the roster. Williams has a player option, and Portland does not have any picks in the upcoming draft. However, assuming Williams opts in, the Blazers will be sitting at around $65 million in payroll, so they're in a great spot for short-term upgrades. If Williams leaves, they will still have the full midlevel exception to replace him, and/or the biannual exception. Using either would hard-cap Portland for next season, but with so much room under the projected tax apron, that shouldn't be a problem.
If Williams stays -- the best scenario -- the Blazers can use the MLE to address the 16th-ranked defense. Portland actually defended shots well, placing seventh in effective field goal percentage and allowing the lowest frequency of 3s attempted. But the conservative approach that led to the lowest forced turnover rate in the league is an area where a dynamic defender would come in handy. Thabo Sefolosha and Kirk Hinrich are possibilities among perimeter players, while Andris Biedrins, Udoh or the possibly-available Anderson Varejao could be fits. Another name if money gets tight in Golden State: Draymond Green.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: If Williams chooses to decline his player option and test free agency, Portland will be faced with either having to re-sign him and still have to go shopping for other bench needs, or letting him walk and seeking to replace him in the trade/free agency market (they have no draft picks this year). Depending on McCollum's development, there might be an opportunity to move him into the primary guard-off-the-bench role. Other than that, every single rotation player is under contract, most of them at an extremely affordable rate. This gives Portland some flexibility in terms of pursuing trades, although most of the players they'd be willing to trade have limited value on the market.
Looking ahead, Aldridge, Lopez and Matthews will all be entering the last years of their deals. Portland stands at the fault line of what could be a seismic event: Do you continue to build the team around this core, or do you attempt to swing a blockbuster to move these more attractive pieces?
Doolittle: Two things about Portland have to be monitored. The number of young players who contributed little to the playoff effort is troubling -- Leonard, McCollum, Barton, Freeland and Victor Claver all barely left the bench, while the starters labored for heavy minutes. All of those players could have used seasoning in the D-League, but Portland preferred to develop them in practice, and after the season gave up its D-League affiliate. So is player development a problem? Too soon to say. Also, Aldridge's contract situation bears close watching. I wouldn't jettison him now after the team improved so much this year, but if next year is disappointing, and Robinson takes a big step forward, moving Aldridge at next year's trade deadline could be the next step for a franchise that is eventually going to have to pay Lillard.
IV. The "ideal" roster:
Elhassan: The most the Blazers can offer Williams (without dipping into their midlevel exception) is a new deal starting at $3.3 million next season as a non-Bird free agent. If Williams opts out, there's a likelihood he might find a better deal elsewhere. For the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to assume that Williams does exactly that. McCollum assumes the main backup playmaking role as well as scoring off the bench, while Barton also gets more minutes. Meanwhile, I used $4 million of the midlevel exception to sign Udoh as backup center, where he can keep the Portland defense afloat whenever Lopez goes to the bench.
Like Lopez, he's not a voracious rebounder, but playing alongside Aldridge and Robinson, he won't need to be. Admittedly, this is a conservative approach to the offseason, but I think retaining the flexibility moving into 2015 and beyond holds precedence over making a splash in free agency.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Robin Lopez 27 $6.1m 5.5
PG Damian Lillard 25 $3.3m 9.4
SG Wesley Matthews 29 $7.2m 5.2
SF Nicolas Batum 26 $11.8m 8.4
PF LaMarcus Aldridge 30 $16.0m 6.3
bC Ekpe Udoh 28 $4.0m -1.1
bPG C.J. McCollum 24 $2.4m -1.2
bSG Will Barton 24 $0.9m -0.1
bSF Dorell Wright 29 $3.1m 4.5
bPF Thomas Robinson 24 $3.7m -0.6
RES1 Joel Freeland 28 $3.0m -0.5
RES2 Meyers Leonard 23 $2.3m -0.9
Est. Payroll: $66.2 million; Updated Win Range: 45 to 49
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
Portland's 2014 playoff foray resembled the Cinderella run of a mid-major college in March: they pulled off an exciting first-round victory only to be summarily banished before a live audience against a far superior opponent. There should be no cause for shame among the Blazers' faithful. On the contrary, Portland's future looks rosier than ever (no pun intended).
General manager Neil Olshey did an excellent job of plugging the biggest holes with talent that complemented the existing roster perfectly, but his job is far from done, and the Blazers must find a way to keep adding talent and keep improving on the strong campaign put together in 2013-14.
Here's a look at some of the ways they might do that.
2014-15 Status quo baseline: 48.3 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: The continued development and progression of Damian Lillard was nothing short of remarkable, as he made his first All-Star appearance in just his second season. Lillard's poise during the first playoff series of his career was noteworthy, although his inexperience became more evident in the second round against San Antonio, a team built to exploit any weakness. His ability to navigate off the dribble needs to improve, as does his effort on the defensive end, but overall Lillard was fantastic this year. LaMarcus Aldridge raised his level of play as the offensive workhorse that carried Portland through the season, a role that was no doubt made easier by the presence of Robin Lopez, who carried out much of the big-man dirty work and served as the defensive anchor the Blazers' starting lineup needed. On the wings, Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews were versatile defensively and excellent spacers. Overall, Portland's starting lineup was one of the most complete and efficient in the NBA.
Doolittle: Clearly, the Trail Blazers are moving in the right direction. They leaped from 33 to 54 wins, improved 12 places to fifth in offensive efficiency and jumped 10 places to 16th on the defensive end. And they did so with the same core players, supplemented by experience and a couple of additions among the role players. The concern, if you want to call it that, about Lillard entering the season was that as a four-year college player, he might have entered the NBA near his ceiling. Well, he improved his winning percentage from .505 to .566, and still has plenty of room for improvement on the defensive end. Aldridge is smack in his prime, but will be near 30 by the end of next season, the last of his current contract. His impact on the Blazers is considerable despite a WARP (7.1) that ranked just 34th in the league, largely a function of a true shooting percentage that has tumbled from .560 to .507 over the last two years. Nevertheless, Aldridge's RPM of plus-5.05 ranked 10th in the league, and for most of the playoffs he certainly looked the part of a franchise player. The average age of the Portland starters next season will be 28, a fine age for a title contender.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: The Blazers' bench desperately needs help, although it's not as bad as it was a year ago. Mo Williams was a solid pickup, Thomas Robinson showed flashes and Dorell Wright had some memorable moments in the playoffs. Still, there's a major need for more shooting, more defense and a bona fide backup center for Lopez. Some of those concerns will be addressed by C.J. McCollum and Will Barton, but Joel Freeland looked outmatched most times and Meyers Leonard, for the time being, looks incapable of figuring out who he is and what he needs to be in this league. Some backup centers on the unrestricted market include Cole Aldrich and Aaron Gray, as solid "beat 'em up" players; a restricted free agent who could be a nice fit is Ekpe Udoh, as a long, defensive stalwart.
Doolittle: Barring a trade, there likely isn't going to be a whole lot of movement on the roster. Williams has a player option, and Portland does not have any picks in the upcoming draft. However, assuming Williams opts in, the Blazers will be sitting at around $65 million in payroll, so they're in a great spot for short-term upgrades. If Williams leaves, they will still have the full midlevel exception to replace him, and/or the biannual exception. Using either would hard-cap Portland for next season, but with so much room under the projected tax apron, that shouldn't be a problem.
If Williams stays -- the best scenario -- the Blazers can use the MLE to address the 16th-ranked defense. Portland actually defended shots well, placing seventh in effective field goal percentage and allowing the lowest frequency of 3s attempted. But the conservative approach that led to the lowest forced turnover rate in the league is an area where a dynamic defender would come in handy. Thabo Sefolosha and Kirk Hinrich are possibilities among perimeter players, while Andris Biedrins, Udoh or the possibly-available Anderson Varejao could be fits. Another name if money gets tight in Golden State: Draymond Green.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: If Williams chooses to decline his player option and test free agency, Portland will be faced with either having to re-sign him and still have to go shopping for other bench needs, or letting him walk and seeking to replace him in the trade/free agency market (they have no draft picks this year). Depending on McCollum's development, there might be an opportunity to move him into the primary guard-off-the-bench role. Other than that, every single rotation player is under contract, most of them at an extremely affordable rate. This gives Portland some flexibility in terms of pursuing trades, although most of the players they'd be willing to trade have limited value on the market.
Looking ahead, Aldridge, Lopez and Matthews will all be entering the last years of their deals. Portland stands at the fault line of what could be a seismic event: Do you continue to build the team around this core, or do you attempt to swing a blockbuster to move these more attractive pieces?
Doolittle: Two things about Portland have to be monitored. The number of young players who contributed little to the playoff effort is troubling -- Leonard, McCollum, Barton, Freeland and Victor Claver all barely left the bench, while the starters labored for heavy minutes. All of those players could have used seasoning in the D-League, but Portland preferred to develop them in practice, and after the season gave up its D-League affiliate. So is player development a problem? Too soon to say. Also, Aldridge's contract situation bears close watching. I wouldn't jettison him now after the team improved so much this year, but if next year is disappointing, and Robinson takes a big step forward, moving Aldridge at next year's trade deadline could be the next step for a franchise that is eventually going to have to pay Lillard.
IV. The "ideal" roster:
Elhassan: The most the Blazers can offer Williams (without dipping into their midlevel exception) is a new deal starting at $3.3 million next season as a non-Bird free agent. If Williams opts out, there's a likelihood he might find a better deal elsewhere. For the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to assume that Williams does exactly that. McCollum assumes the main backup playmaking role as well as scoring off the bench, while Barton also gets more minutes. Meanwhile, I used $4 million of the midlevel exception to sign Udoh as backup center, where he can keep the Portland defense afloat whenever Lopez goes to the bench.
Like Lopez, he's not a voracious rebounder, but playing alongside Aldridge and Robinson, he won't need to be. Admittedly, this is a conservative approach to the offseason, but I think retaining the flexibility moving into 2015 and beyond holds precedence over making a splash in free agency.
The "Ideal" Roster
Position Player Age 2015$ 2015WARP
C Robin Lopez 27 $6.1m 5.5
PG Damian Lillard 25 $3.3m 9.4
SG Wesley Matthews 29 $7.2m 5.2
SF Nicolas Batum 26 $11.8m 8.4
PF LaMarcus Aldridge 30 $16.0m 6.3
bC Ekpe Udoh 28 $4.0m -1.1
bPG C.J. McCollum 24 $2.4m -1.2
bSG Will Barton 24 $0.9m -0.1
bSF Dorell Wright 29 $3.1m 4.5
bPF Thomas Robinson 24 $3.7m -0.6
RES1 Joel Freeland 28 $3.0m -0.5
RES2 Meyers Leonard 23 $2.3m -0.9
Est. Payroll: $66.2 million; Updated Win Range: 45 to 49
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
