This is more or less what the Cavs are doing
edit: whoops, the whole thing didn't paste over for some reason. the second half is a couple of posts down
http://patternofbasketball.blogspot.com/2015/04/beating-warriors.html
Beating The Warriors
The Golden State Warriors are easily the most fascinating storyline of the playoffs because we still know so little about them. Any team that wins 67 games, especially given how stacked the West is, is a potential juggernaut who has to be favored to win the NBA championship. However, when a team wins that many games it's usually on the tail end of a dominant run, after they have already established themselves as perennial contenders. This is only Golden State's 3rd trip to the playoffs and this is really the first time this particular group of players has been together. I say that because switching out David Lee for Draymond Green is what has taken this group to the next level so this is the first season that the Bogut-Green-Klay-Steph core has been tested.
The Warriors are a good example of why I think PF is the most important position in the modern NBA. The guy you have at that spot is who dictates the identity of your team. So there's only so much you can take away from their first two trips to the playoffs, when they had Harry Barnes and David Lee, respectively, at the position. A Golden State team with Draymond Green at the 4 is potentially revolutionary in a number of ways and they present unique strengths in how they attack and unique weaknesses in how they can be attacked. That's what these playoffs are ultimately about to me - how will Golden State be tested and are they really as unbeatable as they looked in the regular season?
They have looked dominant at times in their first two wins over the Pelicans, but those games were both played in Oracle and the 8 seed acquitted themselves well for the most part. After getting punched in the mouth in Game 1 the Pels came back and made it a game before falling short in the fourth quarter. In Game 2, New Orleans was the team that came out aggressive, controlling the action for most of the first half before ultimately succumbing to a 2nd-half comeback and being unable to execute in the 4rth quarter against a stifling Warriors defense. The Pels have shown enough to where you think they would be able to get at least one game in New Orleans. Then it will just come down to whether they can hold that 2nd game and turn it into a series. Here's what I would be looking at if I were them.
1) Don't turn the ball over + control tempo
This probably goes without saying in any playoff series, as it's virtually impossible to beat a good NBA team if you are constantly coughing up the ball and giving them easy run-outs. However, it does feel especially true with the Warriors, given that they have the No. 1 rated offense and the No. 1 rated defense in the league. Teams with that profile are generally going make an absolute killing going defense to offense. They have a bunch of long athletes at every position and their goal is to get into you and dictate tempo. If they can speed you up and force you to turn the ball over, you have pretty much no chance. Pretty much everyone but Bogut can push it up the court which makes it really hard to pick up Steph and Klay in transition and those guys walking into transition 3's has to be the most efficient offense in the league.
Take a look at the box score from Game 2. Both teams had 13 TO's yet somehow Golden State had 24 fast break points to only 7 for New Orleans. That's the difference in the game right there. I'd almost be paranoid enough to where I wouldn't want to push the ball too much against them - take a bad shot in transition and you might as will give them 3 points the other way. That's why I think the absence of Jrue Holiday is so important in this series. Tyreke Evans has been distributing the ball well but he still takes a lot of bad shots and doesn't always have a great feel for controlling tempo. You have to have a great PG whose not going to get sped up and who turns the game into station-to-station basketball while still being able to selectively run and get easy baskets.
2) Make the 3 and 4 positions shoot the ball
The Warriors aren't so much a great shooting team as they are a team with two great shooters who hoist 3's from anywhere with no conscience. Everything in their offense is revolved around getting Klay and Steph open looks from 3 so that's the first thing you have to take away as the opposing team. You can't give them open shots off screens - you have to make them give up the ball or take them with a hand in their face. Just as important is sticking to the Splash Brothers when the ball is moving around the perimeter. You have to give up something against the Warriors and you would rather it be from 3's from the other guys - Harry Barnes, Draymond Green, Shaun Livingston, Andre Iguodala, Leandro Barbosa.
3) Don't let their front-court players beat you as passers
Part of what makes Golden State great is that everything fits together. There aren't many passing tandems at the 4 and 5 position better than Draymond and Bogut which means the Warriors can run offense through their big men and play both Steph and Klay off the ball. The key is you have to make their big guys score the ball, particularly Bogut, because he doesn't want to do it. A good example of is when the guards come off screens and the other team doubles, they are going to slip the ball to either of the big men rolling to the basket. At that point what you don't want to do is have the help-side commit to hard to the big because that opens up a 3-on-2 behind and they are looking to find the shooters. You want to stop short and make Draymond or Bogut beat you with the pull-up jumper or take the ball all the rim.
In Game 2, Bogut was 2-5 from the field and Draymond was 4-12. The more FGA's the Warriors big men have, the better your chances are. Draymond in particular missed a bunch of floaters at the rim that could have gone in but those are the shots you want to live with. He is only 6'6 so he can have trouble finishing in traffic against longer players. If Draymond Green is going to score 20-25+ then you are going to lose but you want to see if he can do that consistently. There's a fine line you have to draw because you don't want to sell out completely on the Splash Brothers and give everyone else wide open looks either - I wouldn't double Steph 28+ feet from the basket like the Clips were doing in last year's playoffs. A lot of this comes down to personnel and having a ton of length and athleticism to shrink the floor against the Warriors, which might be the biggest plus the Pels have in this series.
edit: whoops, the whole thing didn't paste over for some reason. the second half is a couple of posts down
http://patternofbasketball.blogspot.com/2015/04/beating-warriors.html
Beating The Warriors
The Golden State Warriors are easily the most fascinating storyline of the playoffs because we still know so little about them. Any team that wins 67 games, especially given how stacked the West is, is a potential juggernaut who has to be favored to win the NBA championship. However, when a team wins that many games it's usually on the tail end of a dominant run, after they have already established themselves as perennial contenders. This is only Golden State's 3rd trip to the playoffs and this is really the first time this particular group of players has been together. I say that because switching out David Lee for Draymond Green is what has taken this group to the next level so this is the first season that the Bogut-Green-Klay-Steph core has been tested.
The Warriors are a good example of why I think PF is the most important position in the modern NBA. The guy you have at that spot is who dictates the identity of your team. So there's only so much you can take away from their first two trips to the playoffs, when they had Harry Barnes and David Lee, respectively, at the position. A Golden State team with Draymond Green at the 4 is potentially revolutionary in a number of ways and they present unique strengths in how they attack and unique weaknesses in how they can be attacked. That's what these playoffs are ultimately about to me - how will Golden State be tested and are they really as unbeatable as they looked in the regular season?
They have looked dominant at times in their first two wins over the Pelicans, but those games were both played in Oracle and the 8 seed acquitted themselves well for the most part. After getting punched in the mouth in Game 1 the Pels came back and made it a game before falling short in the fourth quarter. In Game 2, New Orleans was the team that came out aggressive, controlling the action for most of the first half before ultimately succumbing to a 2nd-half comeback and being unable to execute in the 4rth quarter against a stifling Warriors defense. The Pels have shown enough to where you think they would be able to get at least one game in New Orleans. Then it will just come down to whether they can hold that 2nd game and turn it into a series. Here's what I would be looking at if I were them.
1) Don't turn the ball over + control tempo
This probably goes without saying in any playoff series, as it's virtually impossible to beat a good NBA team if you are constantly coughing up the ball and giving them easy run-outs. However, it does feel especially true with the Warriors, given that they have the No. 1 rated offense and the No. 1 rated defense in the league. Teams with that profile are generally going make an absolute killing going defense to offense. They have a bunch of long athletes at every position and their goal is to get into you and dictate tempo. If they can speed you up and force you to turn the ball over, you have pretty much no chance. Pretty much everyone but Bogut can push it up the court which makes it really hard to pick up Steph and Klay in transition and those guys walking into transition 3's has to be the most efficient offense in the league.
Take a look at the box score from Game 2. Both teams had 13 TO's yet somehow Golden State had 24 fast break points to only 7 for New Orleans. That's the difference in the game right there. I'd almost be paranoid enough to where I wouldn't want to push the ball too much against them - take a bad shot in transition and you might as will give them 3 points the other way. That's why I think the absence of Jrue Holiday is so important in this series. Tyreke Evans has been distributing the ball well but he still takes a lot of bad shots and doesn't always have a great feel for controlling tempo. You have to have a great PG whose not going to get sped up and who turns the game into station-to-station basketball while still being able to selectively run and get easy baskets.
2) Make the 3 and 4 positions shoot the ball
The Warriors aren't so much a great shooting team as they are a team with two great shooters who hoist 3's from anywhere with no conscience. Everything in their offense is revolved around getting Klay and Steph open looks from 3 so that's the first thing you have to take away as the opposing team. You can't give them open shots off screens - you have to make them give up the ball or take them with a hand in their face. Just as important is sticking to the Splash Brothers when the ball is moving around the perimeter. You have to give up something against the Warriors and you would rather it be from 3's from the other guys - Harry Barnes, Draymond Green, Shaun Livingston, Andre Iguodala, Leandro Barbosa.
3) Don't let their front-court players beat you as passers
Part of what makes Golden State great is that everything fits together. There aren't many passing tandems at the 4 and 5 position better than Draymond and Bogut which means the Warriors can run offense through their big men and play both Steph and Klay off the ball. The key is you have to make their big guys score the ball, particularly Bogut, because he doesn't want to do it. A good example of is when the guards come off screens and the other team doubles, they are going to slip the ball to either of the big men rolling to the basket. At that point what you don't want to do is have the help-side commit to hard to the big because that opens up a 3-on-2 behind and they are looking to find the shooters. You want to stop short and make Draymond or Bogut beat you with the pull-up jumper or take the ball all the rim.
In Game 2, Bogut was 2-5 from the field and Draymond was 4-12. The more FGA's the Warriors big men have, the better your chances are. Draymond in particular missed a bunch of floaters at the rim that could have gone in but those are the shots you want to live with. He is only 6'6 so he can have trouble finishing in traffic against longer players. If Draymond Green is going to score 20-25+ then you are going to lose but you want to see if he can do that consistently. There's a fine line you have to draw because you don't want to sell out completely on the Splash Brothers and give everyone else wide open looks either - I wouldn't double Steph 28+ feet from the basket like the Clips were doing in last year's playoffs. A lot of this comes down to personnel and having a ton of length and athleticism to shrink the floor against the Warriors, which might be the biggest plus the Pels have in this series.
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