Philadelphia 76ers 2018 NBA offseason preview - Draft, trades and free agency
by Bobby Marks on 2018-05-11 08:13:00 UTC (original:
Do the Sixers still chase a superstar now, or wait?)
Even as one of the most promising teams in the NBA, the
Philadelphia 76ers are already staring down enormous questions that will shape the future of the franchise.
They have the opportunity to chase superstar wings
LeBron James,
Paul George and
Kawhi Leonard this offseason -- or wait until 2019 for a big move.
Which path is best and how will it work? Now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to their free agency, draft and trade decisions.
More summer focus: Click here for every team so far
The future of Brett Brown
Before lining up finances for draft or free-agent moves, Philly's first order of offseason business should be putting an extension on the table for head coach Brett Brown.
Brown enters the offseason on the last year of an extension signed in December 2015. Without a new contract, his performance next season will be met with scrutiny the first time adversity hits. A slow start could certainly ignite the rumor mill and questions about whether Brown is the right coach for this team. He is.
Brown and his staff have rehabilitated and developed a downtrodden franchise from a roster resembling a G league squad in his first three seasons, to a playoff team that not only has a solid foundation in place but stability for the future.
The delicate balance of cap space
The 76ers are in unfamiliar territory when it comes to free agency this offseason. A 52-win team and the second-youngest roster in the NBA is now met with expectations to take another leap.
Philly's two-year window to use cap space starts July 1. That window is a result of likely having eight players on rookie contracts in 2018-19 and free agency for
Ben Simmons and
Dario Saric not hitting until 2020.
How the 76ers go about utilizing room will depend on three different approaches:
Big game hunting
The aggressive approach would see Philadelphia meet with LeBron James on the first day of free agency.
The sales pitch? Two franchise players in
Joel Embiid and Simmons, a core piece in Saric, an All-Defense level player in
Robert Covington, and draft assets (including former top pick
Markelle Fultz) -- plus a likely lottery pick in June to use for internal improvement or acquiring more talent in a trade.
Is that enough for James to change teams for the second time in four years, give up $53 million in guaranteed money and abandon a Cleveland team that has appeared in three straight NBA Finals, with the possibility of playing in a fourth? Unlikely ... but a player like James does not come on the free-agent market often, and his moves are impossible to predict.
Recruiting James (or Paul George) should come with a self-imposed deadline for the 76ers' front office. In the past, James waited 10 days in 2010 and 11 days in 2014 to make his free-agent decision, leaving the rest of the NBA at a standstill. Playing the waiting game until the second week of free agency could cost Philly its own free agents, namely shooting guard JJ Redikk. That's unless Redikk would come back at the $4.4 million midlevel exception if James does decide to switch teams.
The trade market
Despite having max money to chase free agents, a trade is the more feasible way for Philly to add a star. Free-agency additions cost only cap flexibility, but those pursuits are dice rolls. A trade for Kawhi Leonard or
DeMar DeRozan -- if either player becomes available -- is a more likely proposition, though also more costly. Some combination of Fultz, Covington and draft assets would have to be included in such a deal.
As outlined here, the Sixers need to decide how likely it is that they can sign a player like Leonard or
Klay Thompson as a free agent in 2019 without needing to deplete assets, as well as gauge their confidence that such a star would eventually commit long-term following a trade. If dealt, Leonard would have only one year left on his deal (plus a player option) and Philly wouldn't be able to offer an extension close to his max.
In the case of DeRozan, there is no risk contractually because the guard is signed through the 2020-21 season. Though not in the category of LeBron or Kawhi, DeRozan gives you an All-Star wing in the prime of his career.
With a trade, the 76ers would still have $13 million in cap space to go the one-year route with a player like Redikk, and up to $20 million in room the following year.
The conservative approach
Despite Philly's ability to create $25 million in room, this free-agent market is diluted outside of James, George,
Chris Paul,
DeAndre Jordan and
DeMarcus Cousins. Once you get past those five All-Stars, there is a strong drop-off in players worth risking long-term cap space for. In fact, out of the 150 potential free agents in July, 125 are likely to have a role coming off the bench.
The 76ers can elect to keep the same team intact -- including soon-to-be free agents Redikk and
Amir Johnson on one-year contracts -- while adding their own first-round pick and a likely first from the Lakers (plus any of their
four second-rounders).
While conservative, this approach would set the 76ers up with a projected $30 million in cap space in 2019, with Fultz, Simmons, Embiid, Covington, Saric,
Furkan Korkmaz,
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and three upcoming first-rounders all under contract. Philadelphia can also retain free agents
T.J. McConnell and
Richaun Holmes based on their low free-agent cap holds.
Setting aside cap space until 2019 would allow 76ers management to develop the young core and target some much-needed star shooting in Thompson or
Jimmy Butler.
The role of Markelle Fultz
The offseason questions regarding Fultz were thought to be answered when the No. 1 overall pick returned in late March.
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As detailed by
ESPN's Mike Schmitz, the point guard's comeback from a season-long shoulder ailment looked like a spark for the Sixers' bench in the playoffs. Instead, Fultz played an ineffective 20 minutes in an opening-round win against Miami and was a spectator in the five games vs. Boston.
Now entering the offseason, the goal in Philadelphia is not only to get Fultz back to the level of play that made him the No. 1 pick last June, but also identify his role next season. How that shakes out will inform the Sixers' other moves.
The McConnell contract
The easy thing for Philadelphia to do is exercise McConnell's $1.6 million option for 2018-19. Bring back the reserve guard on a minimum contract and let him play out his final season.
But that is debatable, because doing so would make the guard an unrestricted free agent in 2019. Philadelphia can decline the 2018-19 option, give McConnell a qualifying offer and make him a restricted free agent this year. Doing so would give the team the right to match an offer sheet but also create the risk that his $1.6 million salary is replaced with a figure in the $4-5 million range.
Exercising the option -- a likely scenario -- gives the team cap flexibility for 2019 because of his $1.6 million cap hold, but comes with the chance of losing the point guard in unrestricted free agency.
McConnell is also extension-eligible (up to four years, $46 million) in July for a new contract and can have his 2018-19 salary renegotiated with cap space starting Sept. 22.
Summer cap breakdown
Sterling Brown (Milwaukee) and
Jawun Evans (
LA Clippers) officially occurred after the July 1 moratorium, Philadelphia is not allowed to receive money in a trade up until June 30.
If the 76ers do become sellers with any of their four second-round picks on draft night, such trades will occur post-July 1 when the new salary-cap year begins.
Extension-eligible candidates
Besides McConnell, Holmes,
Justin Anderson and
Jerryd Bayless are extension-eligible.
Unlike last year when Embiid and Covington were extended, expect Philadelphia to bypass extension talks with a priority on cap space in 2019.
The draft assets
The Sixers will either land the No. 1 draft pick from the Lakers (1.1 percent chance), get that selection at No. 10 (or slightly lower), or convey the pick to Boston if it is Nos. 2-4 (4.9 percent chance). Philly holding onto the pick would mean the Celtics receive Sacramento's 2019 first-rounder, protected for No. 1 (in which case the 76ers keep it and send their pick to Boston). If Boston gets the Lakers' pick, Philly holds onto the Kings' pick unprotected.
With 13 players under contract including two first-round picks, the Sixers could be sellers the night of the draft with four second-round picks. They could also go the international route, stashing players overseas like they've done with Anzejs Pasecniks, Jonah Bolden and Mathias Lessort.
Here's how
ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Philadelphia picking in the 2018 draft:
- No. 10 (from LAL): Mikal Bridges | SF | Villanova
- No. 26 (own): Jalen Brunson | PG | Villanova
- No. 38 (from Brooklyn): Justin Jackson | SF | Maryland
- No. 39 (from New York): Rodions Kurucs| SF | Barcelona 2
- No. 56 (own): Issuf Sanon | PG/SG | Olimpija Ljubljana
- No. 60 (own): Amine Noua | PF | Villeurbanne
Besides the four second-round picks in June, Philadelphia also has seven second-round selections incoming from 2019 to 2021.
