We are getting closer
The Coming Fall of American Empire
- Thread starter FAH1223
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Mister Terrific
It’s Great to be a Michigan Wolverine
In a previous tweet, I pointed out that China will have a harder time catching up with the United States. China’s GDP was about 78% of the U.S. level in 2021, but by 2024 that share had fallen to roughly 64%.
Some argued this was simply an exchange-rate effect, while others questioned the metric itself and suggested that purchasing-power parity, or PPP, tells a different story.
It is true that the renminbi has weakened from around 6.3 to roughly 7.2 per dollar, a depreciation of about 13%. That does reduce China’s GDP in dollar terms. But the divergence between China and the United States is visible in underlying growth.
In nominal terms, the U.S. economy has expanded more rapidly. American GDP rose from about 23 trillion dollars in 2021 to roughly 28 to 29 trillion in 2024, an increase of around 25%. China’s grew from approximately 114 trillion yuan to around 130 trillion yuan, closer to 15%. Even allowing for differences in measurement, the gap is widening, not narrowing.
The same pattern appears in capital markets. U.S. equities, represented by the S&P 500, increased from roughly $45 trillion in 2021 to around $55–60 trillion more recently. Chinese markets have moved in the opposite direction. Indices such as the CSI 300 and the Hang Seng have seen their combined market value fall from around $13 trillion at their peak to closer to $10 trillion. If this were primarily a currency story, it would be difficult to explain why U.S. markets have surged while China’s have contracted in absolute terms.
This points to a deeper structural shift. China’s growth model, long driven by investment, construction and credit expansion, is running into constraints, including diminishing returns and rising debt burdens. The United States, by contrast, continues to benefit from stronger consumption and more resilient capital markets.
There is also a historical lesson. During the Cold War, Nobel economist Paul Samuelson projected that the Soviet economy would eventually catch up with or even surpass that of the United States in late 20 century . Those forecasts extrapolated from USSR’s strong growth trends but underestimated geopolitical realities.
As for PPP, it serves a specific purpose but has clear limitations. It is useful for comparing domestic purchasing power, yet far less informative when assessing global economic weight, financial influence or technological leadership.
For instance, India’s economy already appears significantly larger than Japan’s. Few would argue that India offers a higher level of development.
Finally, headline GDP figures themselves have limits. Investment can boost output and employment in the short term while generating little long-term return, especially when financed by rising debt. This concern has long been raised in discussions of China’s infrastructure and construction-led model. Questions around data transparency add another layer of uncertainty.
For policymakers, the implication is straightforward. Treating this as a currency-driven fluctuation, or relying on PPP-based comparisons, risks misreading China’s trajectory. The evidence points to a more durable divergence, shaped by structural factors rather than short-term financial movements. This is not simply a cyclical slowdown. It marks a shift in relative economic momentum.
the cac mamba
Veteran
both parties are just gonna kick the can down the road while they're in power, until this monstrosity of debt collapses on someone's grandkids
no one has the balls to do what needs to be done. it doesn't seem plausible that we can print forever. Bush probably started it post-9/11, and 2020 and 2021 really sent us off an un-recoverable cliffbut hey, i'm 35, just give me a good 40 years or so
Nascimento
swohz
That tweet is getting ripped apart in the comments, rightfully so, for using nominal GDP figures in the comparison.
Furthermore, American GDP and Chinese GDP are very different things in these times. It's apples to oranges.
China builds real goods and services. For decades, it has taken over sector after sector. Two things remain where China doesn't yet dominate, that's computer chips and commercial jet aircraft. But that's coming along too, only a matter of time.
Just days ago, IEA came out with a report that in 2025 it was the biggest growth in global power generation ever recorded, for any energy source. It's a big development, that will receive minimal news coverage of course, as a development that is led by China.
Global growth in solar "the largest ever observed for any source"
The International Energy Agency says we've entered the Age of Electricity.
arstechnica.com
CATL just unveiled EV batteries with 621-mile driving range, and batteries that charge to full in seven minutes.
China's CATL unveils 621-mile EV battery with under-7-minute charge
CATL unveils 621-mile EV battery and under-7-minute charging tech as rivalry with BYD intensifies.
interestingengineering.com
China is currently building a hydropower project that will add generation equal to the entire yearly generation of the UK. It's feeding more electricity to its industries and AI, while keeping power bills stable for its people. How much power is the US adding to the grid?
What’s Driving China’s Mega Medog Hydropower Project?
Energy security, frontier development, technological ambition, and geopolitical calculation are increasingly intertwined in China’s infrastructure strategy.
thediplomat.com
America's economy is deindustrialized, financialized scheme of transfer payments for the benefit of the owner donor class. It's a fake economy. Ever increasing number of dollars are chasing the same goods and services, with inflated costs, valuations and so called capital markets. That is how money gets transferred up into the private wealth of the top 1%. Costs of living are skyrocketing, and trillions are poured into stock buy-backs instead of productive investments in real goods and services and jobs.
And this dummy posts an image of stock valuations as if it isn't clear to everyone at this point that the stock market is a bubble that is completely divorced from the real economy of goods of services.
It's well documented that the AI bubble is a circular IOU accounting scheme between Nvidia, OpenAI and IT tech giants. The valuations are based on fantastical average revenue per user (ARPU) projections that will never happen.
The economy, sector by sector, is run by private equity. They consolidate the market and practically gain monopoly power, and then prices go vertical.
Ambulance vehicles market has been taken over by private equity. For decades the cost of an ambulance was stable at $120-140k. It has now suddenly shot up to $500k, and it takes three years to deliver the product.
You can buy an ambulance for ONE TENTH of that price from China, and it's delivered in three months. There's a factory group in China that produces 100 ambulances PER DAY. Cue for the Temu jokes.
Why do ambulances suddenly cost $500,000, and take three years to build?
Private Equity strikes again
kdwalmsley.substack.com
American healthcare and drug costs are through the roof, credit card debt is ever increasing. And remember, all of this nonsense counts for GDP growth!
An added dollar in China's GDP is a good getting produced and sold. An added dollar in American GDP is income for the rich elite that is sucked out of the real economy.
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mastermind
Rest In Power Kobe
Being an imperialist is a crazy thing to be proud of.
ORDER_66
I am The Wrench in all your plans....
it was in our faces the entire time...
oh and when your in washington DC get a good look at the interior of the capitol building where the painting is...look who sits in the middle
Mister Terrific
It’s Great to be a Michigan Wolverine
China's youth jobless rate rises to 16.9% in March
BEIJING, April 21 (Reuters) - The jobless rate in China for those under 30 years of age in urban areas, excluding college students, rose in March, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.
The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.
In the youngest segment surveyed, among 16-to-24 year-olds, the jobless rate rose to 16.9% from 16.1% a month earlier, reversing a downward trend that started in September last year.
Among the 25-29 year-olds, excluding students, the unemployment rate climbed to 7.7% from 7.2% in February.
In the 30-59 year-old segment, joblessness inched up slightly to 4.3% from 4.2% a month earlier.
US homes are significantly larger than Chinese homes, with the average US home (~2,100–2,400 sq ft) being roughly 3 to 4 times larger than the average urban Chinese home (~600–650 sq ft). While American housing often consists of detached, single-family homes, Chinese urban housing predominantly consists of high-rise apartments, reflecting higher population density and different cultural, economic, and planning factors.
Key Comparisons:
Average Size (US):
~2,164–2,426 square feet, among the largest in the world.
Average Size (China - Urban):
~600–646 square feet, with urban apartments having nearly doubled in size over the past 15 years.
Living Density:
With 2.5 people per household in the US, Americans enjoy over 700 square feet per person, whereas Chinese urban living spaces are much more compact.
Home Structure:
"Houses" in the US often mean suburban, detached properties, while "houses" in urban China generally mean high-rise apartments.
Illegal immigration
from China to the United States has seen a historic surge, with Chinese nationals becoming the fastest-growing group crossing the U.S. southern border. As of 2026, authorities continue to navigate rising encounter numbers and shifting deportation policies.
Recent Trends and Data
Rapid Surge: Border encounters with Chinese nationals rose from approximately 450 in 2021 to over 37,000 in 2023. In early 2024, encounters had already reached 27,496 by April, surpassing the previous full fiscal year's total.
"Walking the Line" (Zouxian): This popular term describes the arduous journey migrants take through South and Central America, often starting in Ecuador due to its former visa-free policy for Chinese citizens.
Drivers of Migration
Migrants often cite a combination of economic and political factors for leaving China:
Economic Stagnation: Slowing growth and the destruction of small businesses during COVID-19 lockdowns.
Political Repression: Tightening government control, censorship, and crackdowns on free speech or religious practices (e.g., for Chinese Christians).
Information Access: Step-by-step instructions on how to reach the U.S. and hire smugglers (known as "snakeheads") are widely shared on platforms like TikTok and Telegram.
U.S. Enforcement and Deportation
The U.S. government has intensified efforts to curb this influx:
Repatriation Flights: After years of limited cooperation, China has resumed accepting deportation flights. In June 2025, a high-risk charter flight returned 122 Chinese nationals with final removal orders, including some convicted of serious crimes.
Policy Crackdowns: The U.S. Embassy in Beijing issued warnings in April 2025 regarding increased penalties for illegal entry, including jail time and permanent visa bans.
Asylum Success Rates: Despite the crackdown, Chinese migrants historically have higher asylum approval rates (roughly 55%) compared to other nationalities (14%), which remains a significant pull factor
Mister Terrific
It’s Great to be a Michigan Wolverine
In summary, imagine thinking a country where there are more deaths than live births, where men outnumber women and whose youth spends most of its time unemployed or selling p*ssy is going to be in any future position to surpass America.
The US which is going to be the number 1 energy supplier in the world. Gots to be smarter pinko’s.
The US which is going to be the number 1 energy supplier in the world. Gots to be smarter pinko’s.
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Mister Terrific
It’s Great to be a Michigan Wolverine
For real, Free Tibet and East Turkestan.
Hopefully the Chinese hegemony is kind to our descendants
Dillah810
Flat Girther
While America is laying off people to pay for AI investments China is doing this
Dillah810
Flat Girther
Mister Terrific
It’s Great to be a Michigan Wolverine
Wow, China’s awesome. To celebrate I think I’ll order some disposable ear buds from temu. I could just walk to the store and grab some but I figure I’ll make some Chinese guys life a little more nightmarish.