The state of the polling industry post-2020 thread

[acri1]

Yes, votes are still being counted but I figured I'd go ahead and make the thread now. What kind of ramifications will the 2020 results have for political polling in general? They were fairly accurate in 2018, but 2020 has been a different story so far -

• Florida: Polls showed Biden up by 5+, but Trump ends up winning by a couple of points

• Wisconsin: Polls showed Biden up by 7+, but Biden won by less than a percent

• Michigan: Basically same as WI. Polls showed Biden up, sometimes by 8+, but he only won by 1-2%

• Maine: Everybody has Susan Collins losing, but she somehow won

• Pennsylvania: Polls had Biden up by 5+. He may win, but if he does it'll be just barely

There are more (Dems underperforming in House races, etc).


So why were the polls off, and what happens to the polling industry now? Does Trump uniquely drive up Republican turnout? Shy/Lying Trump voters? Something wrong with polling methodology?

 

[God Almighty]

The pollsters manipulate the data to make races look tighter as the election date nears so they can sell their product to the media for their horse race narrative.

 

[Loose]

Seems like the shy republican voter thing was real smh... that and republicans ground game was good considering dems conceded in March due to covid

 

[wire28]

sorry @FAH1223 but imma be on you and any other nikka ass in here from now on whenever yall post polls. that shyt is dead out here

 

[Loose]

sorry @FAH1223 but imma be on you and any other nikka ass in here from now on whenever yall post polls. that shyt is dead out here

I'm going to chalk this up to trump ,covid easier access to voting a lot of shyt

 

[FAH1223]

Pollsters were much better in 2018. Maybe Trump on the ballot is something you can’t really account for?

Maybe you gotta give Trump like 5% from the jump added to any of his polling? Trafaglar may have been onto something with that. Though their crosstabs were crazy weird.

If the Republicans nominate someone like Romney or Haley or Hogan in 2024, then I think polls may be more accurate.

 

[No1]

sorry @FAH1223 but imma be on you and any other nikka ass in here from now on whenever yall post polls. that shyt is dead out here

It seems like Trump has like a reverse Bradley effect where more people support him than want to admit. He’s what they want behind closed doors. No one appealed to it so blatantly so they pick and chose between candidates that offered some of what they want. Trump had a good economy and was racist. You can’t beat that for many apparently.

 

[Loose]

It seems like Trump has like a reverse Bradley effect where more people support him than want to admit. He’s what they want behind closed doors. No one appealed to it so blatantly so they pick and chose between candidates that offered some of what they want. Trump had a good economy and was racist. You can’t beat that for many apparently.

He definitely is , a lot of white people i would have been surprised in my youth throughout different jobs quietly support him.

 

[The G.O.D II]

Polling was already an extremely outdated method due to advancements fo tech. Then most trumptards are skeptical since they think pollsters are media associated and will not give straight answers when asked.

 

[Champion]

I stopped paying attention to them after what happened in 2016.

 

[Red Shield]

Pollsters were much better in 2018. Maybe Trump on the ballot is something you can’t really account for?

Maybe you gotta give Trump like 5% from the jump added to any of his polling? Trafaglar may have been onto something with that. Though their crosstabs were crazy weird.

If the Republicans nominate someone like Romney or Haley or Hogan in 2024, then I think polls may be more accurate.

It seems like Trump has like a reverse Bradley effect where more people support him than want to admit. He’s what they want behind closed doors. No one appealed to it so blatantly so they pick and chose between candidates that offered some of what they want. Trump had a good economy and was racist. You can’t beat that for many apparently.

Yeah this I agree with.

There were just a bunch of trump voters who were gonna vote for him, but didn't want the stigma of it.




I think polling will go back to regular next election.

 

[NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong]

If a poll has someone up 10 or more I'll trust that person is actually up but I won't expect any specific number

 

[acri1]

Yeah this I agree with.

There were just a bunch of trump voters who were gonna vote for him, but didn't want the stigma of it.




I think polling will go back to regular next election.

Nate Silver stayed saying "shy Trump voters" don't exist and it was just a matter of weighting for education.

He's going to have a lot of explaining to do

 

[mc_brew]

@Rhakim @Wild self ... any thoughts...?

 

[Dr. Acula]

The fact that there is less than a 2 percent response rate to calls in itself is a problem. People are screening calls more and more with cell phones. The thinking to combating the concern is that as long as your total sample is large enough it doesn't matter.

However, consider the types of people who are most likely to sit and answer political surveys. It will probably be those who are already politically engaged. So that is already a sampling bias there that I don't know that can account for the full electorate.

Peoples attention spans are diminishing and engaging with each other in different ways. Maybe it's time to look at getting rid of phone call political surveys and find new ways to get better response rates from average people.