The state of the polling industry post-2020 thread

[MoneyTron]

People forget that the GOP internal polls were way off as well. They did much better across the board than even they believed was going to happen.

 

[Dave24]

@Rhakim @Wild self ... any thoughts...?

The last day @Rhakim posted was on October 30, 2020. I hope he is ok.

 

[Wild self]

People forget that the GOP internal polls were way off as well. They did much better across the board than even they believed was going to happen.

I blame the fact that RACISM is still a massive problem in America. The Dems pulled out the sledgehammer against the GOP beast and managed to put down big bad Trump. Problem is, the victory is rather bittersweet since these racist GOP could have dominated EVERYTHING if the Dems didnt show out in record numbers.

Its scary that these polls didnt show that, and its going to be a tough future to hold.

 

[NZA]

but what was the margin of error?

 

[---]

Pollsters were much better in 2018. Maybe Trump on the ballot is something you can’t really account for?

Maybe you gotta give Trump like 5% from the jump added to any of his polling? Trafaglar may have been onto something with that. Though their crosstabs were crazy weird.

If the Republicans nominate someone like Romney or Haley or Hogan in 2024, then I think polls may be more accurate.

This is correct mentioned it many times, in the other trends. Certain things can't be accounted for ghost in the numbers. When a fat tail event happens like Trump winning, everything has to be adjusted to that particular event.

They are and were onto something!

 

[FAH1223]

This is correct mentioned it many times, in the other trends. Certain things can't be accounted for ghost in the numbers. When a fat tail event happens like Trump winning, everything has to be adjusted to that particular event.

They are and were onto something!

It reminds me of Obama too

He overperformed his polling...

We are just lucky Trump was unpopular throughout his whole term

 

[Ethnic Vagina Finder]

Polls have always been meaningless.


For one the sample size is too small
For two, they don’t sample first time voters
For three, they don’t even know if all of them are going to vote in the first place
For four, people lie.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[Cave Savage]

Yeah nobody will give a shyt about polls after this

 

[DEAD7]

Polls will die for good next time around.
Number junkies and outlets that profit from polls will blame Trump for the distortions.
Once he's removed from the equation and the polls are off they will have to have a seat.

 

[ogc163]

Good thread

 

[CBSkyline]

At this point Quinnipiac, Marist, ABC, etc should be thrown in the trash and their polls weighted as such. All that talk about changing methodology, only to be even more wrong this round

 

[Professor Emeritus]

The pollsters manipulate the data to make races look tighter as the election date nears so they can sell their product to the media for their horse race narrative.

Nah, there's too much competition in the industry for that. You're talking about over a hundred different pollsters, being the one poster who "got it right" is FAR more lucrative in the long run than "selling the horse race" is.

I believe pollsters are actually trying, but there are idiosyncrasies from year to year that they sometimes fail to account for. The fact that presidential races are only once every 4 years and a lot changes from generation to generation means there isn't really as much data to work with as we like to think. They'll attempt to adjust to this failure, whether they will adjust successfully remains to be seen.

@Rhakim @Wild self ... any thoughts...?

The last day @Rhakim posted was on October 30, 2020. I hope he is ok.

I'm good, had a lot of shyt going on (in a good way) and didn't have time to post.

Personally, I was WILD upset that states like Wisconsin missed so dramatically in the polling. But I haven't been doing the research to figure out why it happened. Perhaps when Trump is involved, there are more people voting for self-interest even when they know its wrong, so they tell others one thing and do another.