Trade deadline winners and losers

Skooby

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Celtics, LeBron and the trade deadline winners and losers



Over the past two weeks, I've graded all 14 trades completed in advance of Thursday's NBA trade deadline individually.

Now, with a moment to catch my breath, it's time to consider the past couple of weeks as a whole in terms of which teams have benefited or suffered the most from NBA trade season.

Let's take a look at my winners and losers at the deadline.






Winners



Cleveland Cavaliers

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Though they didn't make any moves after shedding Chris Andersen's contract last week, the events of the deadline played out well for the Cavaliers.

The Toronto Raptors did load up, but the Boston Celtics' decision to stand pat at the deadline is good news for Cleveland in terms of maintaining the No. 1 seed and getting through the Eastern Conference playoffs unscathed.


Perhaps more importantly, the Dallas Mavericks' buyout of Deron Williams should clear the way for Williams to join the Cavaliers barring a surprise on the waiver wire. ESPN's Tim MacMahon and Marc Stein have already reported that Williams intends to sign with Cleveland if he clears waivers.

Despite injury concerns, Williams is a better backup point guard than the Cavaliers could have realistically acquired via trade, and he'll come cheaper at the prorated veteran's minimum.







Houston Rockets

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In terms of 2016-17 production, Lou Williams was the second-best player dealt midseason after DeMarcus Cousins -- Williams has produced 7.2 wins above replacement player by my metric this season, and Serge Ibaka is next at 4.7 -- and the Rockets were able to get Williams and offload Corey Brewer's salary for a first-round pick likely to fall late in the round.

Having added quality depth to the backcourt, Houston now turns its attention to the buyout market with the ability to offer $3.5 million to free agents, far more than teams that can pay only the prorated veteran's minimum.





New Orleans Pelicans

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The Pelicans were able to get a superstar talent for the cost of their 2017 first-round pick and ineffective rookie Buddy Hield. No matter how cynical your assessment of Cousins' effect in the locker room and on the court, that's a great deal for an organization that frankly has little to lose by adding him.

As a result, New Orleans might be the franchise that took the single biggest step forward at the deadline.





Toronto Raptors

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By adding Ibaka and P.J. Tucker, Toronto loaded up for the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs. With those reinforcements, I expect the Raptors' midseason slide -- they've lost 11 of their past 16 games -- to be a distant memory come the postseason.

While Toronto is unlikely to catch the Celtics for second place in the East, the third seed is achievable and right now I would favor the Raptors over the Celtics in a hypothetical matchup in the conference semifinals. Their revamped roster also seems better positioned to contend with Cleveland in a possible conference finals rematch.

Remarkably, Toronto managed to add two key pieces while retaining the better of this year's two first-round picks (the Raptors' own and one from the LA Clippers) and all its future first-rounders. So the Raptors didn't have to sacrifice too much of their future to contend now.






Losers


Boston Celtics

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I don't blame the Celtics for being unable to complete deals with the Chicago Bulls or Indiana Pacers for Jimmy Butler and Paul George, which were always long shots. Boston might not have come up short for lack of interest. A league source suggested the Bulls and Pacers might regret holding on to their stars given how much the Celtics were willing to offer.

I'm more surprised Boston came out of the deadline with no help for the frontcourt or on the defensive glass. Come the conference semifinals, I think the Celtics might regret not addressing their weaknesses.

Boston has stockpiled enough draft picks that I would have been comfortable giving up one of the team's own first-round picks for Taj Gibson, who instead went to the Oklahoma City Thunder, as a rental. And even a fifth big man might have been an upgrade on Tyler Zeller as a situational center.







Sacramento Kings

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I figured part of the logic behind completing the Cousins trade on Sunday was so the Kings had time to make other deals before the deadline. Instead, Sacramento was unable to get anything for the expiring contracts of guards Darren Collison, Tyreke Evans, Ty Lawson and Ben McLemore or shed the $1.5 million guaranteed portion of guard Arron Afflalo's 2017-18 salary.

The Kings are now left for the rest of the season with a mismatched roster that's overloaded in the backcourt and heavy on veterans who don't help a team that has all but conceded the eighth spot in the Western Conference and presumably wants to improve its lottery pick.





Washington Wizards

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The past week was not ideal for the Wizards' chances of reaching the conference finals for the first time since 1979, when they lost to the Seattle SuperSonics in the NBA Finals as the Bullets.

Though Washington made a move, I'm not sure that adding Bojan Bogdanovic will do enough to upgrade the Wizards' weak bench. They were unable to add a point guard and will have to count on Trey Burke and Tomas Satoransky behind John Wall the rest of the season and into the playoffs.

Worse yet, Toronto's moves make it far more likely the Raptors will make up the two-game gap between the two teams and knock Washington into fourth in the East, which would potentially set up a matchup with the Cavaliers in the conference semifinals if they remain in first place. Washington's best path to the conference finals is avoiding Cleveland as long as possible.





2017 TRADE GRADES

Kevin Pelton hands out his grades for all of the NBA deals at the deadline.

How far can Cousins lead the Pelicans?
Will Lou Williams help Rockets bench?
Noel next Tyson Chandler for Dallas?
How does Gibson fit in OKC?
Can Tucker slow down LeBron?
Bogdanovic boost to Wizards bench?
Will Ennis help Lakers' backcourt?
Who wins Hawks-Sixers Ilyasova deal?
Who wins Bucks-Nuggets Hibbert deal?
Who wins Hawks-Suns trade?
 

str8up

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Dallas might have been the biggest winner just from how cheap they managed to get Noel
 

Skooby

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Dallas might have been the biggest winner just from how cheap they managed to get Noel
Dallas and OKC are winners too
I agree but he actually doesn't think the 76ers did all that bad. He wrote a trade article about the Mavs-76er deal before the deadline believing they were going to flip Bogut into another pick.
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The deal
Sixers get: Dallas' top-18 protected 2017 first-round pick (converts to two second-round picks if not conveyed), guard Justin Anderson, center Andrew Bogut

Mavericks get: Center Nerlens Noel


Dallas Mavericks: B+
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When Noel was in the 2013 draft, Tyson Chandler was a trendy comparison for his ability as a shot-blocker and above-the-rim finisher. So it's fitting that, three-plus years later, Noel heads to where Chandler reached his greatest heights -- the Mavericks.

Dallas coach Rick Carlisle wants his centers to be rim-runners, capable of rolling hard to the basket and catching lobs to create what's known in the NBA as "vertical spacing." Noel fits the bill. So far this season, nearly half of his made shots (52 of 107, per Basketball-Reference.com) have been dunks. As a result, after occasionally struggling with his efficiency while playing next to another big man the past two seasons, Noel is shooting a career-high 61.1 percent in 2016-17 -- better than Chandler's 59.4 percent career shooting.

At the other end, Noel hasn't proved to be in Chandler's class as a rim protector so far. He's generally been around average for a starting center in opponent field goal percentage at the rim, with opponents shooting 50.0 percent inside 5 feet this season according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. And possibly in part because he's less judicious attempting to block shots, Noel is a substantially worse defensive rebounder.

That said, Noel's quickness probably outpaces Chandler's, and he has terrific anticipation in the passing lanes. Remarkably, Noel's 3.6 steals per 100 team plays lead all NBA regulars (minimum 500 minutes); he was at 2.9 steals per 100 each of the last two seasons.

Noel's athleticism allows him to hold his own defending power forwards, crucial when he plays alongside Dirk Nowitzki with the Mavericks. While putting Noel on 4s and Nowitzki on slower 5s doesn't maximize his defensive ability, that pairing should work far better than Nowitzki and Bogut did before Carlisle quickly abandoned that combination.

This trade is a signal Noel will outlast Nowitzki in Dallas, and that's where this deal will truly be decided for the Mavericks. If they can re-sign Noel as a restricted free agent to a deal starting around $15 million per season and get average or better play from him as a starting center, giving up Anderson and what will likely be a couple of second-round picks would be great value because Noel is a better center option than anyone they likely could have signed in free agency.

If a team signs Noel to a big offer sheet -- and ESPN's Zach Lowe suggested on Twitter that the possibility of near-max offers was a reason the trade market for Noel was tepid -- Dallas might not realize much value from this trade because he'll be fairly paid at best and likely overpaid. In that case, the Mavericks might have given up too much to get Noel's matching rights because he's unlikely to help them make the playoffs this season.

Philadelphia 76ers: B-
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Let's start with the optimistic view of this deal from the 76ers' standpoint. Noel was about to get paid as a restricted free agent, and while Philadelphia has unusually strong need for a capable backup center because of Joel Embiid's health history, there were only so many minutes for Noel when Embiid was healthy unless they were able to play together. And even that possibility is complicated by the presence of Ben Simmons and Dario Saric at power forward.

So moving Noel did make sense if the value was there, and the answer to that question depends on your valuation of Anderson. Though he could never seem to win Carlisle's trust, Anderson is a physical wing defender with an excellent combination of steal and block rates. In fact, Noel and Anderson (who just sneaks over the bar) are both among the 21 players in the league who have averaged 2.0 steals per 100 team plays and blocked 2.0 percent of opponent 2-point attempts or better in at least 500 minutes.

As Lowe quickly noted on Twitter, Anderson is exactly the kind of wing prospect who has tended to haunt teams who give such players away as part of larger deals.

The common denominator in the examples Lowe identified is they typically added 3-point accuracy to their defensive ability to become two-way contributors. Anderson has shot just 28.8 percent from long range as an NBA player (30.3 percent this season) but did manage to shoot 45.2 percent as a junior at Virginia after posting percentages similar to his NBA marks his first two seasons. So it's certainly possible Anderson does the same.

The pick protection (top-18) makes it a long shot the Sixers get a first-round pick on top of Anderson. Adding Noel could shift those odds, but at this point simulations using ESPN's Basketball Power Index show less than 0.1 percent chance of the Mavericks' pick falling outside the top 18. However, there is an outside shot the 76ers can get a second-round pick for Bogut in addition to the two they'll likely receive from Dallas by flipping him to another team before the deadline.

The downside for Philadelphia is this trade might mean committing to Jahlil Okafor as the backup to Embiid. Okafor hasn't yet been good enough to justify that role. According to NBA.com/Stats, the 76ers have been outscored by 15.9 points per 100 possessions with Okafor on the court this season. That explains Okafor's minus-5.3 estimated impact per 100 possessions by ESPN's real plus-minus, the league's second-worst mark.

My research into similar RPM laggards showed it's unlikely Okafor develops enough to become nearly as good as Noel, and while that doesn't matter this year, it could hurt Philadelphia's chances of contending for a playoff spot next season as their young talent develops. If the Sixers plan to continue exploring Okafor trades and use Richaun Holmes as their backup center, I'd like this trade a lot more from their standpoint.
 

str8up

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@Skooby You have an insider account or access the articles some other way? I used to use insider2text but it's been down.
 

humble Hermit

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Blah the wizards added a 15 point scorer to their bench, while trading a player that got no burn. Nicholson sign a 4 year contract last summer and they got rid of him, reliving potential cap space in the future
 

Suiken

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I remember when the media also put Celtics as losers during the draft. I wonder who's laughing now. :shaq:
 
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