“In previous deep recessions, most notably in 2008 and 1980, initial claims during the worst four weeks of the recession would total 2 [million],” Nomura economist Lewis Alexander wrote in a note to clients March 22. “That is consistent with the shock from COVID-19 compressing a significant deterioration in the labor market into a much shorter period relative to previous contractions.”
Uncertainty is high, and so the range of estimates for Thursday’s report was unusually wide. Economists at Citi estimated claims would explode to 4 million. Meanwhile, UBS economists estimated the tally would come in at 860,000.
Alexander noted that the sudden spike in weekly initial jobless claims will likely not persist for long at these elevated levels; however, it implies that non-farm payroll job losses could be heavily front loaded relative to previous recessions which means the unemployment rate could rise even more rapidly.
Recent indications from individual states pointed to initial jobless claims in the millions.
“Early state reports this week indicate initial claims for the week ended March 21 will rocket well over one million next week—and possibly as high as three million,” Wells Fargo wrote in a note March 20. “That would surpass anything we saw during the financial crisis and could be upwards of three times the all-time high in claims set back in 1982. This will shock even the most bearish forecasters. As economic activity is grinding to a halt, the U.S. economy is quickly catapulting into a recession.”
Connecticut was expected to see approximately 80,000 claims last week, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley.
In addition, many states waived requirements that recently laid off workers must wait one week before filing a claim. States that were likely to see the largest increases in weekly jobless claims include California, Pennsylvania, New York, Florida and Ohio.
The rapid spread of the coronavirus has led to massive business disruptions in the U.S. over the past several weeks. A growing number of cities across the country ordered residents to “shelter in place,” and non-essential businesses such as sit-down restaurants and retail stores have been forced to shut their doors. As a result, the pace of layoffs has been swift.
