West has two NBA All-Star teams better than East's best
Picking the West's A-team
In real life, the fans pick the starters, and the coaches pick the reserves. In this case, we'll do it for them, based on composite rank.
Overall, it looks a lot like the real-life squads. Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook are in the backcourt while Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green fill out the frontcourt. The reserves? Chris Paul, James Harden and Butler get spots as well as Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, George and Karl-Anthony Towns.
One crazy thing? The talent divide is so wide that Towns is the worst player on the West team (14th overall by composite rank), but he's ranked higher than the third-best player in the East.
West A-team
Pos. Player Comp. Rank
Guard Stephen Curry 3
Guard Russell Westbrook 4
Forward Kawhi Leonard 2
Forward Kevin Durant 6
Forward Draymond Green 7
Reserve Chris Paul 5
Reserve Anthony Davis 8
Reserve James Harden 9
Reserve DeMarcus Cousins 10
Reserve Jimmy Butler 11
Reserve Paul George 13
Reserve Karl-Anthony Towns 14
Average rank 7.7
Picking the East's A-team
LeBron James and ... well, that gets tricky. James is currently composite ranked as the NBA's best player even though he'll be turning 33 in December. Then after that you have to scroll ... and scroll ... and scroll.
Hey, look at that -- an East player! Lowry checks in at 12th by composite rank, which makes sense for a player who averaged 22.4 points, 7.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds while making 3s at a high volume and the same percentage as Curry and Klay Thompson.
If the two conferences equally distributed their talent, you'd see East and West tend to alternate in the player rankings. But it goes East, West, West, West, West, West, West, West, West, West, West, Lowry. Then you have to wait until No. 17 to find another East player: the Greek Freak.
In other words, 14 of the best 16 players in the NBA hail from the Western Conference, by this measure. If you want to go further, the West claims 18 of the top 21 players in the league.
(For this exercise, we subbed Isaiah Thomas in for Jae Crowder and Myles Turner on the All-Star squad given they were all in the same tier and Thomas is the bigger star. Thomas ranked fifth in the 2017 MVP voting, but his RPM rating has him 59th this past season because of porous defense while the predictive RPM -- which is forward-looking -- has him pegged at 68th as he approaches age 30. The more favorable composite rank puts Thomas at 39th best among players for next season.)
For the East, Lowry and John Wall start in the backcourt while James, Antetokounmpo and Kevin Love take the forward slots. On the bench, Hayward, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Al Horford and Hassan Whiteside join Thomas.
East A-team
Position Player Copm. Rank
Guard Kyle Lowry 12
Guard John Wall 24
Forward LeBron James 1
Forward Giannis Antetokounmpo 17
Forward Kevin Love 22
Reserve Gordon Hayward 25
Reserve Kristaps Porzingis 26
Reserve Kyrie Irving 30
Reserve Kemba Walker 33
Reserve Al Horford 34
Reserve Hassan Whiteside 36
Reserve Isaiah Thomas 39
Average rank 24.9
Is that squad good enough to beat the West's second-best?
Picking the West's B-team
There is no LeBron on this team, but wow, the depth makes up for it. Damian Lillard and Thompson man the starting backcourt while Blake Griffin, Denver's newest star Millsap and DeAndre Jordan also start for the West's B-team. They could probably hold their own, but the reserve corps is loaded.
West B-team
Position Player Copm. Rank
Guard Damian Lillard 15
Guard Klay Thompson 27
Forward Blake Griffin 18
Forward Paul Millsap 19
Forward DeAndre Jordan 16
Reserve Mike Conley 20
Reserve Nikola Jokic 21
Reserve Rudy Gobert 23
Reserve CJ McCollum 28
Reserve Eric Bledsoe 31
Reserve Ricky Rubio 32
Reserve Steven Adams 35
Average rank 23.8
Off the bench, Mike Conley, CJ McCollum and Eric Bledsoe join Ricky Rubio (FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO Projections peg him as a "borderline All-Star"). Joining those guards are Nikola Jokic (leader of the NBA's best offense since he joined the starting lineup in December last season), Rudy Gobert and Steven Adams. The reserves on the West average out to 27th in composite rank while the East reserves check in at 32nd.
What about overall? Amazingly, the average rank of a West B player is better than for an East A player. The average composite rank is 23.8 for the West versus 24.9 for the East.
Even if we ignore #NBArank altogether, and look purely at predictive RPM, the West B-team still comes out ahead. On top of the strength of its bench, the West B-team holds a combined RPM of 47.6 compared to the East's 41.7. That's not a small difference.
Amazingly, when considering playing time, the West's B-team is projected to be worth six more wins above replacement than the East A squad next season. Oh, and the West A-team? That has 74.9 combined RPM, yielding 185 wins above replacement -- about 50 percent more wins than the East squad.
So, yes, we have evidence that the Western Conference can field not one, but two squads better than the East's best squad. That's without taking any of the West's most elite 12 players.
Comparing the teams
Pos. West A East A West B
G S. Curry (3) K. Lowry (12) D. Lillard (15)
G R. Westbrook (4) J. Wall (24) K. Thompson (27)
F K. Leonard (2) L. James (1) B. Griffin (18)
F K. Durant (6) G. Antetokounmpo (17) P. Millsap (19)
F D. Green (7) K. Love (22) D. Jordan (16)
Res. C. Paul (5) G. Hayward (25) M. Conley (20)
Res. A. Davis (8) K. Porzingis (26) N. Jokic (21)
Res. J. Harden (9) K. Irving (30) R. Gobert (23)
Res. D. Cousins (10) K. Walker (33) C. McCollum (28)
Res. J. Butler (11) A. Horford (34) E. Bledsoe (31)
Res. P. George (13) H. Whiteside (36) R. Rubio (32)
Res. K. Towns (14) I. Thomas (39) S. Adams (35)
Avg. Rank 7.7 24.9 23.8
Of course, there are other ways to look at this, including matchups. The West B-team has gaps -- for instance, it doesn't have an ideal one-on-one defender for James (Millsap is probably the best bet). But Gobert is the best rim protector in the game and Jordan isn't very far behind. They could pack the paint against the East's best and get away with it, considering Antetokounmpo, Wall and James aren't sharpshooters.
Any team featuring James will be competitive ... to a point, but the West's A-team would run circles around the East's best in a real competition. Based on player talent, the only fair fight is to run out the West B-team against the East's best. Even then, the East still looks like the least conference.
Picking the West's A-team
In real life, the fans pick the starters, and the coaches pick the reserves. In this case, we'll do it for them, based on composite rank.
Overall, it looks a lot like the real-life squads. Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook are in the backcourt while Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green fill out the frontcourt. The reserves? Chris Paul, James Harden and Butler get spots as well as Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, George and Karl-Anthony Towns.
One crazy thing? The talent divide is so wide that Towns is the worst player on the West team (14th overall by composite rank), but he's ranked higher than the third-best player in the East.
West A-team
Pos. Player Comp. Rank
Guard Stephen Curry 3
Guard Russell Westbrook 4
Forward Kawhi Leonard 2
Forward Kevin Durant 6
Forward Draymond Green 7
Reserve Chris Paul 5
Reserve Anthony Davis 8
Reserve James Harden 9
Reserve DeMarcus Cousins 10
Reserve Jimmy Butler 11
Reserve Paul George 13
Reserve Karl-Anthony Towns 14
Average rank 7.7
Picking the East's A-team
LeBron James and ... well, that gets tricky. James is currently composite ranked as the NBA's best player even though he'll be turning 33 in December. Then after that you have to scroll ... and scroll ... and scroll.
Hey, look at that -- an East player! Lowry checks in at 12th by composite rank, which makes sense for a player who averaged 22.4 points, 7.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds while making 3s at a high volume and the same percentage as Curry and Klay Thompson.
If the two conferences equally distributed their talent, you'd see East and West tend to alternate in the player rankings. But it goes East, West, West, West, West, West, West, West, West, West, West, Lowry. Then you have to wait until No. 17 to find another East player: the Greek Freak.
In other words, 14 of the best 16 players in the NBA hail from the Western Conference, by this measure. If you want to go further, the West claims 18 of the top 21 players in the league.
(For this exercise, we subbed Isaiah Thomas in for Jae Crowder and Myles Turner on the All-Star squad given they were all in the same tier and Thomas is the bigger star. Thomas ranked fifth in the 2017 MVP voting, but his RPM rating has him 59th this past season because of porous defense while the predictive RPM -- which is forward-looking -- has him pegged at 68th as he approaches age 30. The more favorable composite rank puts Thomas at 39th best among players for next season.)
For the East, Lowry and John Wall start in the backcourt while James, Antetokounmpo and Kevin Love take the forward slots. On the bench, Hayward, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Al Horford and Hassan Whiteside join Thomas.
East A-team
Position Player Copm. Rank
Guard Kyle Lowry 12
Guard John Wall 24
Forward LeBron James 1
Forward Giannis Antetokounmpo 17
Forward Kevin Love 22
Reserve Gordon Hayward 25
Reserve Kristaps Porzingis 26
Reserve Kyrie Irving 30
Reserve Kemba Walker 33
Reserve Al Horford 34
Reserve Hassan Whiteside 36
Reserve Isaiah Thomas 39
Average rank 24.9
Is that squad good enough to beat the West's second-best?
Picking the West's B-team
There is no LeBron on this team, but wow, the depth makes up for it. Damian Lillard and Thompson man the starting backcourt while Blake Griffin, Denver's newest star Millsap and DeAndre Jordan also start for the West's B-team. They could probably hold their own, but the reserve corps is loaded.
West B-team
Position Player Copm. Rank
Guard Damian Lillard 15
Guard Klay Thompson 27
Forward Blake Griffin 18
Forward Paul Millsap 19
Forward DeAndre Jordan 16
Reserve Mike Conley 20
Reserve Nikola Jokic 21
Reserve Rudy Gobert 23
Reserve CJ McCollum 28
Reserve Eric Bledsoe 31
Reserve Ricky Rubio 32
Reserve Steven Adams 35
Average rank 23.8
Off the bench, Mike Conley, CJ McCollum and Eric Bledsoe join Ricky Rubio (FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO Projections peg him as a "borderline All-Star"). Joining those guards are Nikola Jokic (leader of the NBA's best offense since he joined the starting lineup in December last season), Rudy Gobert and Steven Adams. The reserves on the West average out to 27th in composite rank while the East reserves check in at 32nd.
What about overall? Amazingly, the average rank of a West B player is better than for an East A player. The average composite rank is 23.8 for the West versus 24.9 for the East.
Even if we ignore #NBArank altogether, and look purely at predictive RPM, the West B-team still comes out ahead. On top of the strength of its bench, the West B-team holds a combined RPM of 47.6 compared to the East's 41.7. That's not a small difference.
Amazingly, when considering playing time, the West's B-team is projected to be worth six more wins above replacement than the East A squad next season. Oh, and the West A-team? That has 74.9 combined RPM, yielding 185 wins above replacement -- about 50 percent more wins than the East squad.
So, yes, we have evidence that the Western Conference can field not one, but two squads better than the East's best squad. That's without taking any of the West's most elite 12 players.
Comparing the teams
Pos. West A East A West B
G S. Curry (3) K. Lowry (12) D. Lillard (15)
G R. Westbrook (4) J. Wall (24) K. Thompson (27)
F K. Leonard (2) L. James (1) B. Griffin (18)
F K. Durant (6) G. Antetokounmpo (17) P. Millsap (19)
F D. Green (7) K. Love (22) D. Jordan (16)
Res. C. Paul (5) G. Hayward (25) M. Conley (20)
Res. A. Davis (8) K. Porzingis (26) N. Jokic (21)
Res. J. Harden (9) K. Irving (30) R. Gobert (23)
Res. D. Cousins (10) K. Walker (33) C. McCollum (28)
Res. J. Butler (11) A. Horford (34) E. Bledsoe (31)
Res. P. George (13) H. Whiteside (36) R. Rubio (32)
Res. K. Towns (14) I. Thomas (39) S. Adams (35)
Avg. Rank 7.7 24.9 23.8
Of course, there are other ways to look at this, including matchups. The West B-team has gaps -- for instance, it doesn't have an ideal one-on-one defender for James (Millsap is probably the best bet). But Gobert is the best rim protector in the game and Jordan isn't very far behind. They could pack the paint against the East's best and get away with it, considering Antetokounmpo, Wall and James aren't sharpshooters.
Any team featuring James will be competitive ... to a point, but the West's A-team would run circles around the East's best in a real competition. Based on player talent, the only fair fight is to run out the West B-team against the East's best. Even then, the East still looks like the least conference.
