Andre Drummond has been the best pick of the 2012 NBA draft. Is he ready for the next step?
Some players are clearly drafted based on potential and are not yet ready to help a team. But there are also times when a player is ready to help, yet the team is not ready to play the player, perhaps because a stubborn coach trusts only veterans, or because veteran players are ahead of the rookie in the rotation. Either way, rooks who don't put up big numbers are not even remotely doomed to a career of obscurity.
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Just a season ago, Cleveland's Tristan Thompson looked like he was a reach as the No. 4 pick. Even at the start of this season, teams still felt that way. But today he is deemed to have All-Star potential, which is why he was drafted so high in the first place.
The same can be said for Tobias Harris, who didn't get much playing time in Milwaukee. Now the 20-year-old is viewed as a long-term starter (at least) in Orlando, after averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds in March. His teammate Nikola Vucevic pulled off a similar feat after being benched in Philly last season. He is one of the league's top rebounders today.
This year's rookie class has five guys who fit this mold, guys who should look a lot different a year from now. A couple of them are victims of tough circumstances and the others just needed a year of seasoning before they figured things out (or so their teams hope).
1. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
This is the so-called "low-hanging fruit." He has been the best pick of this draft, based on production and relative to where he was chosen, and has showed signs of being a franchise-level big. He should be the kind of star talent who can not only pair with Greg Monroe to form an excellent big man combo, but also attract a stud wing player to come to Detroit.
There were arguments supporting Detroit's decision to bring him along slowly this season -- he's averaging 19.8 minutes per game -- but it will be a different story next season. Drummond has averaged 14 points, 14 rebounds and 3 blocks per 36 minutes this season. Give him those minutes next season and we have a great chance of seeing a 17-and-15 monster, which would put him strongly into All-Star territory.
Henson
2. John Henson, Milwaukee Bucks
This is almost as easy a pick as Drummond. Unlike Drummond, Henson is playing for a playoff team and an interim coach who is fighting for a long-term job. As Harris found out, that is no place for a young player to thrive.
Henson has a sterling per-36-minute average as well -- 16.7 ppg, 12.3 boards and 1.5 blocks a game -- despite being weaker than his opponents. He has a body that will always be thin, but he will not always be weak. With six months for him to focus on gaining strength, it's hard to imagine his franchise not embracing him as its starting power forward next season. After seeing Harris blossom in Orlando, the Bucks should be even more focused on letting their 2012 lottery pick make the kind of impact of which he is capable.
Kidd-Gilchrist
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Bobcats
Unlike the two players above, Kidd-Gilchrist has been given the minutes and opportunities to shine. While he has performed OK, he certainly hasn't lived up to Charlotte's expectations for him when it drafted him over Drummond, Damian Lillard and Bradley Beal. Year 2 should be much better, though.
As suspected, MKG's biggest challenge has been his shooting. He has probably been one of the worst shooters among all perimeter players this season. The good news is that shooting is the one skill that almost every player improves as his career progresses. And, unlike most rooks, he doesn't have to spend all summer focused on getting stronger or much of anything else really. Shooting is the overwhelming priority for someone who can already do so many things well.
If MKG devotes 20 weeks of his offseason to shooting (which still gives him a few weeks off) and tries to make about 200 shots a day with supreme focus on his mechanics while working five days a week, he'll have locked in on 20,000 made jump shots before he plays his first preseason game next fall. With his work ethic and great attitude, it seems a great bet that the MKG we see next season will be the stat monster Charlotte hoped for when it drafted him.
Harkless
4. Maurice Harkless, Orlando Magic
Harkless is having some excellent games for Orlando down the stretch, even though it's plain to see that he doesn't know what he is doing. But long, strong, agile and coachable players can succeed in the NBA, as Harkless is proving. He really isn't using much of his physical talents yet, but that suggests he will be a dynamic player as he learns to play and read this game.
Although the Magic are losing lots of games, it's not as if Harkless is putting up big numbers on high-volume shots in blowouts. In some of his biggest games, the team was very competitive and he was efficient as a scorer in each of those games (111 points in five games on 78 shots). He also has some serious stat-stuffing ability, accumulating rebounds, blocks and steals with ease. Think Andre Iguodala without the talent as a passer, but potentially a much better shooter.
Rivers
5. Austin Rivers, New Orleans Hornets
This may seem crazy, considering how poorly Rivers played all season before he got hurt -- bad shooter, bad finisher and not a good passer -- but he has the ability to earn good looks. His attacking angles were spot on, as were his change-of-speed moves and many of his reads off ball screens.
The problem was his finishing maneuvers, which were off balance or poorly timed and rarely powerful. But balance, power and timing are all actual strengths of his game -- at least they were until he got to the NBA, where he encountered the size, length and speed issues that haunt many young guards.
But Rivers is known to have a huge drive to work hard, so it stands to reason that coming off a season like this will push him to new heights. More pull-up jumpers and fewer floaters and shots at the rim against bigs will be a huge step in the right direction and something most guards can easily grasp.
Rivers showed some flashes as a 3-point shooter, and when that part of his game starts clicking, then everything will open up for him even more. He may need to improve more than any other rookie to become a rotation player, but his ceiling is far higher than that. It would be a surprise not to see huge improvement from Rivers next season.
at Austin Rivers on the list
he looks a lil bigger than when he 1st got here tho.)