Why has the left-of-center completely collapsed across Europe?

[mitter]

In Germany, it is a forgone conclusion that the next Chancellor will come from the CDU/CSU. The only question is whether it will be Laschet or Söder. The traditional center-left party (the SPD) is completely impotent.

In France, it is a forgone conclusion that we are headed towards a run-off rematch between far-right Le Pen, and a steadily rightward veering Macron. The center-left and left are so impotent that Macron doesn't even make token gestures these days to reassure them. The traditional center-left party (the PS) couldn't make it to double digits in 2017.

In the UK, which has arguably handled the pandemic worse than any other European country, Boris Johnson is still very popular. Keir Starmer seems to have no message and no way to cut through and connect with voters. Labour has been in disarray for over a decade. They have been destroyed under centrist Brown, slightly left-of-center Miliband, and leftisty Corbyn (the only close call was Corbyn in 2017). Labour has lost their heartlands in the North, and with Scotland firmly in the SNP's grasp, it's difficult to see how Labour will form a government in the forseable future.



So why are we witnessing this phenomenon in Europe? The US deals with a lot of the same issues, but that hasn't led to one-party rule with a completely impotent center-left.

 

[FAH1223]

In Germany, it is a forgone conclusion that the next Chancellor will come from the CDU/CSU. The only question is whether it will be Laschet or Söder. The traditional center-left party (the SPD) is completely impotent.

In France, it is a forgone conclusion that we are headed towards a run-off rematch between far-right Le Pen, and a steadily rightward veering Macron. The center-left and left are so impotent that Macron doesn't even make token gestures these days to reassure them. The traditional center-left party (the PS) couldn't make it to double digits in 2017.

In the UK, which has arguably handled the pandemic worse than any other European country, Boris Johnson is still very popular. Keir Starmer seems to have no message and no way to cut through and connect with voters. Labour has been in disarray for over a decade. They have been destroyed under centrist Brown, slightly left-of-center Miliband, and leftisty Corbyn (the only close call was Corbyn in 2017). Labour has lost their heartlands in the North, and with Scotland firmly in the SNP's grasp, it's difficult to see how Labour will form a government in the forseable future.



So why are we witnessing this phenomenon in Europe? The US deals with a lot of the same issues, but that hasn't led to one-party rule with a completely impotent center-left.

Simply put, its cause Black voters in the USA are the backbone of the Dem party.

And the GOP's reversion in suburbia which has accelerated because of Trump also has helped the Dems.

With that said, the Dems are in terrible position around the country. The GOP controls more state legislatures which means they draw the congressional districts every decade after the US Census is done. Census will be finalized this year but dealt with fukkery cause Trump administration aimed to sabotage it for gerrymandering purposes..

So the Dems chances of keeping the US House are slim because of redistricting alone...

 

[Carl Tethers]

As far as the UK goes, to me, Labour actually did better the further Left they went - it was their position on Brexit that sunk them in the last election It does seem that staying in the centre isn't a vote-getter these days though, in general.. Populism is winning out

 

[mitter]

I can only talk for the UK but, to me, Labour actually did better the further Left they went - it was their position on Brexit that sunk them in the last election

I agree. They had their best showing in recent memory in 2017, when they went left and before the Brexit stuff dominated everything.

But 3 out of the last 4 elections, they have gotten destroyed. So in general, it's not very competitive ...

 

[FAH1223]

As far as the UK goes, to me, Labour actually did better the further Left they went - it was their position on Brexit that sunk them in the last election It does seem that staying in the centre isn't a vote-getter these days though, in general.. Populism is winning out

I agree. They had their best showing in recent memory in 2017, when they went left and before the Brexit stuff dominated everything.

But 3 out of the last 4 elections, they have gotten destroyed. So in general, it's not very competitive ...

Are the polls gonna keep looking like this for the next 36 months...? Tories benefit from vaccine, then the economy recovers, and Labour have no way to win again

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

So why are we witnessing this phenomenon in Europe? The US deals with a lot of the same issues, but that hasn't led to one-party rule with a completely impotent center-left.

my take which could be completely off...

on a macro level we're facing climate change, threats of scarcity (water, food shortages), the population shifts from the wars in the middle east and ethno-tribalism, declining birth rates in developed nations, stagnating economies + basically a host of circumstances that make china the last great growth story (wish I could find the article I read on this, but it laid out why how china's ascent via 80's/90's mfg won't be replicated), all of that gives rise to nationalism and protectionism - very similar to where europe was in the 18th-early 20th centuries, they're going to have to compete with one another for influence and to sustain their nations plus defend against outside meddling from russia and china

the US parties are collectively more right than europe as is, we marched way right in the 80's, and there's finally some pushback on that. add into the face we're a two party country vs multiparty, one, there's no way we let the left collapse, it'll simply just be left of whatever the status quo is, and two, since our left party was already right of yours, or course it seems like we haven't let it collapse since it's already right lol

 

[mbewane]

Couple reasons :

- The Left has been unable or unwilling to take a serious look at racism and islamophobia, meaning that they progressively lost all kinds of votes that in theory would've been theirs. Obviously that comes from the fact that in a lot of cases the Left itself is as racist, xenophobic and/or paternalistic as the Right

- I think around the 70s or 80s (maybe earlier though) they progressively moved away from any sort of alternative model/idea for societies and totally adopted the capitalist model, meaning what they were working for was "softer" capitalism, not something different than capitalism itself. So there too they lost voters or at least the capacity to "inspire". Politics is still about selling
an idea, a program, an ideal vision of society. What's theirs?

- Overall extreme-right ideas have progressively been adopted by what is called the "traditional right", pushing the political axis more and more to the right. Overton window and all that. Having no compelling narrative to offer as a contradiction, the Left got left in the dust.

- The fall of the USSR and the horrors of "communism" were also a big blow to the Left (ironically Nazism was not for the Right, but I digress) at the international level, but the real deal breaker was having basically all the Central and Eastern countries go 10000% right-wing capitalism. The Left is virtually non-existent in a lot of those countries, so at the continental level the Left lost a lot of weight, which obviously has an impact at the national level. They also heavily leaned towards the US, meaning US ideas had a boulevard into Europe via them. There's been a clear shift towards the Right, towards english as a lingua franca and towards the EU as just an economic union as opposed to a political idea since the 2004 expansion.

- The Left, having adopted the capitalist model with no questions asked, has not been able to protect the little guy and workers, so a lot of them turned away, even more so that right/extreme-right rhetoric has been very efficient in accusing migrants of "stealing our jobs" (that sounds like some Coli brehs, but again I digress ) when anyone with basic understanding of how the economy works should know that the problem is not the guy next to you, but the guy above you.

- In France, the fact that the Left itself moved away from trade unions, adopted the capitalist ideal etc means that they lost their link to what was always the basis of left movement : the popular masses and workers. There's always been prominent and wealthy intellectuals on the Left, but you usually had the backing of a solid popular basis. That has been lost because given how the workforce has evolved it's harder to create a mass of workers with similar aspirations (used to be that you spent your whole career in one city and one company, now people are moving around and changing jobs much more often), robotization, etc. So leaders of the Left don't come out of the popular parts of society or from some worker's union, but from middle to upper class families who have the means to send their kids to good universities. No problem per se with that, but years and years of this has created a sort of disconnected intellectual image of the Left, which is called "La gauche caviar" in France ("Caviar Left") or the "bobos" ("bourgeois bohèmes", basically left-leaning "woke" hipsters).

- Overall the problem with the Left is that it's supposed to be forward-looking and offering new perspectives and progress. In an extremely quickly changing world, especially since the fall of the Wall, 9-11, the rise of social media, it's been very hard to have time to actually take time to think and reflect on what those perspectives should be, nevermind how to achieve them. Even more so that the Left has always had much less financial means than the Right, for obvious reasons. So the Left has mostly been "reacting" to what has been going on, as opposed to being proactive. In such a quickly changing era with a lot of uncertainties and fear, the Right will always do better because they cater to those fears by offering "solid" "values" : security, us vs them, family, blood and honor, nostalgia about a glorious past one has to get back to ("MAGA"), a house/family/nation/culture to "protect" against foreigners , etc.

- Forgot to add : in general a presidential system like France's works in favor of the Right because there are usually less parties on the Right and again it's way easier to rally around ideas from the Right (all you really have to say is "We're better, they suck, money uber alles and foreigners are dangerous") than it is around ideas from the Left which tend to be a little more complex and with various layers. Which is why you usually have more parties on the Left than on the Right. In a parliamentary system where ALL parties who get votes have a say in who is in government the Left can still be represented, whereas in a presidential system as in France whoever isn't in the top 2 in votes basically loses any say in who will be president, and thus on who will be in the government. So ironically, France kind of de facto leads to a two-party system for the presidential election.

 

[acri1]

It mainly comes down to nationalism and resentment towards immigrants/brown people. Basically same thing you see in the US.

The US just has a higher minority population (which tends to vote Dem) than most European countries.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

It mainly comes down to nationalism and resentment towards immigrants/brown people. Basically same thing you see in the US.

The US just has a higher minority population (which tends to vote Dem) than most European countries.

 

[JBoy]

I think it is often lost that the vast majority of the planet's populace is right leaning, Europe is no different they just have adopted a softer right wingism due to their recent turbulent blood letting that made them say "whoa maybe not that right wing guys"

 

[mbewane]

I think it is often lost that the vast majority of the planet's populace is right leaning, Europe is no different they just have adopted a softer right wingism due to their recent turbulent blood letting that made them say "whoa maybe not that right wing guys"

You're not wrong, the "natural" tendency of humans is more towards the right-wing, which is why most social progress comes in spurts thanks to the Left. But Europe adopting a softer right wing started before WW2 (which I suppose is what you were alluding to), it had a lotto do with the Soviet revolution and local elites in Western Europe being scared of similar movements in their countries, as communist parties became more and more important. So local right wing elites were progressively forced to loosen up and cave in to social demands, in fear of a more widespread revolution. That indeed continued post WW2 in most countries, leading to widespread social measures and an overall increase in living standards until the 80s. Once that was obtained, the natural right-wing tendencies kicked right back in, especially with Reagan and Thatcher getting to power in the US and UK.

 

[Cynic]

In Germany, it is a forgone conclusion that the next Chancellor will come from the CDU/CSU. The only question is whether it will be Laschet or Söder. The traditional center-left party (the SPD) is completely impotent.

In France, it is a forgone conclusion that we are headed towards a run-off rematch between far-right Le Pen, and a steadily rightward veering Macron. The center-left and left are so impotent that Macron doesn't even make token gestures these days to reassure them. The traditional center-left party (the PS) couldn't make it to double digits in 2017.

In the UK, which has arguably handled the pandemic worse than any other European country, Boris Johnson is still very popular. Keir Starmer seems to have no message and no way to cut through and connect with voters. Labour has been in disarray for over a decade. They have been destroyed under centrist Brown, slightly left-of-center Miliband, and leftisty Corbyn (the only close call was Corbyn in 2017). Labour has lost their heartlands in the North, and with Scotland firmly in the SNP's grasp, it's difficult to see how Labour will form a government in the forseable future.



So why are we witnessing this phenomenon in Europe? The US deals with a lot of the same issues, but that hasn't led to one-party rule with a completely impotent center-left.

The right-wing parties are more left than Democrats.

They support climate change, LGBTQ rights, abortion and are pro-free healthcare. ( poland & Hungary are the exception )

There's no gerrymandering, protection of some southern clan members and almost no anticommunist propaganda and no ICE detention centers and student debt is manageable.

What exactly is the european left supposed to fight for ? Interest rates are negative and the welfare state is well and active.

If interest rates rise and the right starts enforcing stronger austerity measures and privatizes everything.

You'll see a swing to the left.

 

[mbewane]

It mainly comes down to nationalism and resentment towards immigrants/brown people. Basically same thing you see in the US.

The US just has a higher minority population (which tends to vote Dem) than most European countries.

The shift towards the Right started long before immigration was an issue in most countries, circa the 80s. It's actually a non-issue in most European countries if we're actually sticking to numbers and being factual, which, granted, is not what politics is about at all.

 

[mbewane]

The right-wing parties are more left than Democrats.

They support climate change, LGBTQ rights, abortion and are pro-free healthcare. ( poland & Hungary are the exception )

There's no gerrymandering, protection of some southern clan members and almost no anticommunist propaganda and no ICE detention centers and student debt is manageable.

What exactly is the european left supposed to fight for ? Interest rates are negative and the welfare state is well and active.

If interest rates rise and the right starts enforcing stronger austerity measures and privatizes everything.

You'll see a swing to the left.

There's a lot of nuances to be brought to what you're saying. Right-wing parties in France, Italy, Belgium might not oppose directly LGBQT rights, Climate Change or abortion as in the US but trust that they find ways to subtly throw way more conservative ideas out there. There's a lot of anti-socialist propaganda (there's no need for anti-communist propaganda since communism has been non-existent for decades, only Americans haven't noticed), right now there's a huge controversy in France about alleged "islamo-gauchistes" ("islamo-leftists") supposedly being against France and infiltrating universities...basically the exact same rhetoric used in the 30-40s againt "judeo-bolchevists".

Extreme-right activists and paramilitary are clearly protected, it's a well-known fact that the police and army have been infiltrated in at least Belgium and France (half of the french police forces votes for the extreme-right, last year a whole online network of thousands of far-right police officers -some of which openly calling for a civil war- was uncovered and obviously nothing happens when they murder a Black or Arab man).

A shift to the Left will only happen if they actually find some kind of vision and idea to promote. Could've been the environment but their own capitalism stopped that. Could've been non-racism but their own racism stopped that. That's why they're going all-in on gender and LGBQT I guess, it's basically all that's left for them ideologically-wise.

 

[Corny Batman]

What the deuce was going on with the Brabant Killers, you European turkeys?