World Could Cross 1.5ºC Warming Danger Threshold Within Five Years

[acri1]

World Could Cross 1.5ºC Warming Danger Threshold Within Five Years


ENVIRONMENT

WMO PREDICTS MORE FREQUENT ATLANTIC HURRICANES FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. AS THIS PHOTOGRAPH OF ATLANTIC HURRICANES SALLY, PAULETTE AND TEDDY, AND PACIFIC HURRICANE KARINA, SHOWS, 2020 WAS ALREADY A HUGE YEAR FOR HURRICANE NUMBERS. IMAGE CREDIT: LIMBITECH/SHUTTERSTOCK.COM



By Stephen Luntz
28 MAY 2021, 16:39



The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released an updated assessment of the world's global climate trends and it's a shock for those who think human-induced climate change is an issue for the distant future. They predict there is a 40 percent chance that one of the next five years will breach the 1.5ºC hotter than the pre-Industrial average set out to avoid in the Paris Climate Agreement. There is plenty of evidence rising temperatures are already doing local damage to many ecosystems, but 1.5ºC above baseline has been assessed as the point where the danger becomes global.

The prediction is made as part of the WMO's Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, looking at what the 2020s have in store for us, climate-wise.

Looking just at the 2021-2025 period the report gives a 90 percent chance one year will be the hottest on record, exceeding the current record-holder, 2016. Annual temperatures experience cyclic fluctuations based on the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, as well as other more subtle variations. For all the disasters 2020 brought with it, its second half saw the Pacific in a La Niña phase, which is associated with lower global temperatures. Nevertheless, 2020 still managed to be the third hottest year on record, 1.2ºC above preindustrial levels. Once another El Niño occurs the annual record will almost certainly be broken, quite possibly taking the 1.5ºC barrier with it. Even future cool years are expected to be 1ºC above the baseline.

“These are more than just statistics,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas in a statement. “Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development.”

Average temperatures can feel abstract, but the assessment predicts an increase in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, relative to previous 5-year periods. The prediction was put together before Tropical Storm Ana launched what looks like being another overactive hurricane season before the season's official start. The WMO also predicts higher precipitation in Africa’s Sahel, where it might be welcomed, and at high latitudes, where it probably won’t be. Meanwhile, southwestern North America, already locked in an epic drought, is expected to get drier.

The 40 percent chance given to exceeding 1.5ºC is double that in the same report last year. Most of the difference is a result of an improved understanding of exactly what preindustrial temperatures were.

Most of the negative effects of a hotter world are gradual, with every fraction of a degree making them just a little worse. There may be tipping points, where major consequences such as melting glaciers or rainforests turned to savannah become almost impossible to reverse. However, even drawing on the expertise of 11 nations’ climate scientists the WMO can’t pinpoint where these will occur. Acknowledging all this, the world has set 1.5ºC above preindustrial temperatures as the threshold below which global temperatures need to stay. The number is written into the Paris agreement, but national commitments do not get close to meeting that goal, and it seems we will cross it, even if only temporarily, alarmingly soon.

World Could Cross 1.5ºC Warming Danger Threshold Within Five Years


The 2030s are going to be a hot decade, on multiple levels

 

[DEAD7]

We need begin scaling up our tech solutions ASAP...
Getting the world(and ourselves) to act right is too tall of an order in such little time.

 

[BK The Great]

Temperature already feels hot as hell, something has to change but who really knows if we even have the time to reverse it.

 

[FAH1223]

It’s over @Big Boss

 

[((ReFleXioN)) EteRNaL]

I feel like they been talking about global warming since I was 5 and I haven't noticed shyt. Same hot summers. Same cold winter's. Same everything. Just feels like propaganda. The world goes through changes just like every other planet. One day it will return to the days when only the tiniest bacteria could survive. And we'll be long gone when that time comes so who gives a fukk. I'm supposed to sit here and stress about some shyt that's gonna happen in 50 thousand years .....Humans only care about self preservation not about "saving" the planet. As if this planet needs our saving in the first place


Earth will shyt us out long before we ever make a dent in it. We ain't nothing but cock roaches in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Micky Mikey]

We need begin scaling up our tech solutions ASAP...
Getting the world(and ourselves) to act right is too tall of an order in such little time.

Climate change will force us to "act right". At this point its pretty much probable that there will some type of break down in global society. At the rate we're going I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 2 degrees in the next 10 - 20 years. We need to do whatever we can to lower the global avg temp. That's all that matters at this point. Solar radiation management is what comes to mind. We have to cool down the earth immediately, otherwise temperatures will continue rise and do so exponentially. Living conditions on earth will start to become hellish and severely limit any ability for us to implement tech solutions. As society erodes so will our ability to mitigate the worst aspects of climate change. Yet here we are. We are sleep walking into a catastrophe of biblical proportions.

 

[FaTaL]

Climate change will force us to "act right". At this point its pretty much probable that there will some type of break down in global society. At the rate we're going I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 2 degrees in the next 10 - 20 years. We need to do whatever we can to lower the global avg temp. That's all that matters at this point. Solar radiation management is what comes to mind. We have to cool down the earth immediately, otherwise temperatures will continue rise and do so exponentially. Living conditions on earth will start to become hellish and severely limit any ability for us to implement tech solutions. As society erodes so will our ability to mitigate the worst aspects of climate change. Yet here we are. We are sleep walking into a catastrophe of biblical proportions.

It will be too late by then

 

[Micky Mikey]

I feel like they been talking about global warming since I was 5 and I haven't noticed shyt. Same hot summers. Same cold winter's. Same everything. Just feels like propaganda. The world goes through changes just like every other planet. One day it will return to the days when only the tiniest bacteria could survive. And we'll be long gone when that time comes so who gives a fukk. I'm supposed to sit here and stress about some shyt that's gonna happen in 50 thousand years .....Humans only care about self preservation not about "saving" the planet. As if this planet needs our saving in the first place


Earth will shyt us out long before we ever make a dent in it. We ain't nothing but cock roaches in the grand scheme of things.

1.) You're conflating weather with climate
2.) The earth goes through climate cycles that normally take place over the course of thousands if not millions of years. The climate change we see today is abrupt and taking place within the span of one human lifetime.
3.) If you seriously think its going to take 50 thousand years to notice climate change I have a bridge in NYC to sell you
4.) Climate change is happening as we speak. The artic is literally melting before our eyes, the mass migration of animals to cooler climates is taking place, the South West of US is experiencing its worst drought in recorded history, wild fires are becoming more severe, massive migrations of people are taking place due to both climate change and conflict. All of this is taking place in a world hasn't even reached 1.5 degrees yet. If you don't notice climate change occuring now you will very soon.
5. ) The only propaganda and scandal is the fact that politicians and corporations have not been honest about how disastrous climate change will actually be.

 

[ORDER_66]

1.5 Celsius...