New York poised to have its worst Opening Day lineup since 1991 Baseball is a game of breaks, and the New York Yankees received a bad one this weekend. In this case, a literal one, as center fielder Curtis Granderson's forearm squared off against J.A. Happ's fastball, but did not emerge victorious.
As a result, the Yankees are guaranteed to start the season missing a player who hit 86 home runs and missed only eight games over the past two seasons. In itself, the loss of Granderson for a month or more doesn't doom the 2013 season, but given the other hits the franchise has taken in recent years, the Yankees are in a more vulnerable position than they've been in for a number of years.
The thing about dynasties or empires is that they generally don't come crashing to the ground in a grand explosion. Historical empires like the Roman or Byzantine Empires didn't suddenly go out in a blaze of glory; they slowly disintegrated over centuries. The fall of an empire generally involves problems adding up and an increasing inability to deal with new problems, rather than blowing up a Death Star after hanging out with Ewoks.
Packing little punch
If Jeter isn't ready, the Yankees' opening day lineup would look something like this.
PLAYER POS
B. Gardner CF
I. Suzuki RF
R. Cano 2B
M. Teixeira 1B
K. Youkilis 3B
T. Hafner DH
J. Rivera LF
C. Stewart C
E. Nunez SS
The Yankees are no different. There's still a great deal of talent on the roster -- Robinson Cano and CC Sabathia are both healthy and still wearing pinstripes -- but the roster has slowly gotten older, riskier and more expensive. That rather unpleasant triple play has served to limit the options. Nick Swisher isn't a superstar and Russell Martin certainly isn't, but since the team was unwilling to increase payroll enough to keep those two, they're both gone and ill-replaced.
As it stands, with Granderson out, Alex Rodriguez out for at least half a year, and Derek Jeter no guarantee to be ready for the season, it's possible that seven of the nine most frequent starters for the team in 2012 will be out of the Opening Day lineup. Brett Gardner is a terrific defensive player, but he also missed most of 2012 and hardly qualifies as a major bat. Ichiro, Travis Hafner and Kevin Youkilis are all on the downside of their careers, and Juan Rivera is more a role player than someone you start intentionally. And let's not talk about the catching situation.
How weak is an Opening Day lineup without Granderson, Rodriguez or Jeter? To answer this, I took the ZiPS projections of the Yankees' projected 2013 Opening Day lineup and ran them through LineupSimulator.com to compare with their Opening Day lineups of recent years. As presently constituted, the lineup is expected to score just 4.29 runs a game, an impressive drop-off from the 4.96 runs a game the Yankees scored in 2012. The last time the Yankees failed to score 4.29 runs a game was the 1991 team that had Matt Nokes, Roberto Kelly and Mel Hall as the OPS leaders.
How weak is 4.29 runs a game in Yankee Stadium? A league-average pitching staff is expected to allow 4.60 runs a game, so saddled with that Opening Day lineup, the Yankees would be expected to go 75-87 over a 162-game season. Given that lineup, and assuming the pitching can match its 109 ERA+ of a year ago, and that's an 83-79 team.
Luckily, that possible Opening Day lineup won't play all year, but the upside for the offense is still limited. Granderson's returning without any setbacks is obviously a huge plus for the team, but it still just pushes the offense up to around 4.5 runs a game. Jeter was terrific last year, but he's still a middle infielder coming off an ugly injury who celebrates his 39th birthday this year. And A-Rod's return and abilities have more ifs than whens involved.
Can the Yankees still win the AL East? Absolutely. Players like Ichiro and Youkilis could defy the clock and help extend the dominance of the current Yankees for another year. But in the long run, all empires fall, and there's no crueler a judge than history.
again when we eventually bounce back.
