@thatknickfan and
@Sherminator this article gives numbers that really narrow down the argument for us. Really it comes down to biased high school recruitment. After you read this article, take a look at this years high school recruits that signed their letters of commitment this past week. Only 1 QB will come out of that class and make it to the NFL, and odds are it won't be a single one of the 5 stars - all around sad.
Current NFL quarterbacks weren't all big names on National Signing Day
(article is from 2015 btw)
1. Eight of 53 were 5-star recruits coming out of high school
This group accounts for right at 15 percent of the total. It includes one all-time great (Peyton Manning, 1994), two established starters (Carson Palmer, 1998; Matthew Stafford, 2006) and two former USC Trojans whose careers have been up-and-down (Matt Cassel, 2000; Mark Sanchez, 2005). Then there are the journeymen -- Chad Henne (2004), Jimmy Clausen (2007) and Ryan Mallett (2007). Those three combined for six NFL starts in 2014.
2. Only three of 53 were the No. 1 rated quarterback in their signing class
Any guesses? The correct answer is Sanchez (2005), Stafford (2006) and Clausen (2007). Stafford made his first Pro Bowl in 2014, but has yet to lead his team to a playoff win. Sanchez fell out of favor with the Jets before rebounding a bit with the Eagles in 2014. Clausen -- in retrospect maybe the most overrated QB recruit in recent history -- started one game this past season for the Chicago Bears, his first starting assignment since his rookie year of 2010.
3. Peyton Manning was not the No. 1 QB in his own signing class
Manning was one of the country's top-rated recruits coming out of New Orleans' Isidore Newman High School in 1994, but he wasn't the No. 1 quarterback in his class, or even in his own state. That honor went to Evangel Christian's Josh Booty, who turned down LSU to sign a baseball contract with the Florida Marlins. Booty eventually played four seasons at LSU and was even drafted by the Seattle Seahawks in 2001, but never threw a regular-season NFL pass.
4. Eli Manning was much lower-rated than you might remember
Ole Miss moved heaven and earth to land the youngest Manning in 1999, hiring David Cutcliffe -- who'd been Peyton's offensive coordinator at Tennessee -- as head coach with the implicit understanding that he could turn Eli into a star like his big brother. However, the recruit-niks saw Eli as only a 3-star recruit, and the No. 17 QB in his class. Some names ahead of him that year were Chris Simms, C.J. Leak, Rex Grossman and Jared Lorenzen.
5. The 2007 signing class was extraordinarily deep
Clausen and Mallett were the five-star headliners coming out of high school, but several others down the list accomplished a great deal in college and have continued to do so in the NFL. That includes 4-star dual-threat prospect Cam Newton, three-star recruits Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles, Ryan Lindley and Ryan Tannehill, two-star recruit Russell Wilson and Austin Davis, who was a "no-star" baseball player who walked on to the football team at Southern Miss.
6. The 1998 signing class has had some staying power
Five quarterbacks who graduated from high school in 1998 started at least one game this past season, a higher number than any class prior to 2006. That group includes Palmer and four-star dual threat quarterback Michael Vick, plus three largely unknown players who have blossomed at the next level -- Tony Romo, Shaun Hill and Josh McCown. The No. 1 quarterback recruit in 1998? Michigan recruit Drew Henson, a two-sport star who never panned out as either an MLB third baseman or an NFL QB.
7. The 2000 class was loaded with late bloomers
Cassel is still hanging around the NFL, which is more than you can say for the three quarterbacks who were rated ahead of him in the national rankings -- Brock Berlin, Casey Clausen and Jeff Smoker. However, further down the list you find the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler. Roethlisberger was the No. 17 QB in his class, while Rivers and Cutler were unrated. In the NFL, they've combined for nine Pro Bowl berths, 421 starts and more than 103,000 passing yards.
8. Two all-time greats, 3 Super Bowl winners came from 'nowhere'
Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers both have Super Bowl rings and seem destined for eventual enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Russell Wilson is one of the game's bright young stars, a man who has started back-to-back Super Bowls. None of them were among the top 25 quarterbacks in his signing class. Rodgers didn't even have a Division I offer coming out of high school, and spent a year at Butte Junior College before enrolling at Cal.
9. Dual-threat is a growing trend in the NFL
Twelve men who started at least one game in the NFL were noted as "dual-threat" quarterbacks coming out of high school. Notable names on that list include Vick, Newton, Wilson, Tannehill, Robert Griffin and Johnny Manziel. Interestingly, one who wasn't listed that way is Colin Kaepernick, who was a three-star "pro-style" quarterback recruit when he signed with Nevada in 2006. He was also
listed at 6-foot-4 and 172 pounds, which gives new meaning to "slender."
10. The 'Brady Six' is actually 10
Much has been made of the
six quarterbacks who were drafted ahead of four-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady in 2000. But what about those who were rated higher than Brady when he signed with Michigan in 1995? For the record, they were Bobby Sabelhaus (Florida), Chris Redman (Louisville), Mark Zanders (Wisconsin), Brock Huard (Washington) and Kevin Thompson (Penn State). Only Redman -- who was also drafted ahead of Brady -- played significant snaps in the NFL.
