Actual polls of the Democrats' debate performance here

[Professor Emeritus]

538 is on top of that. In order to control for favoritism affecting the results, they compared polls before and after to determine who actually improved as a result of the debate and who didn't.

There's a whole bunch of information there and all sorts of interesting graphs, but the basic upshot is:


Harris kicked ass, basically doubling her voter base to put her in the clear Warren/Sanders/Biden category of major candidates.

Bernie held his ground fine and may have even picked up some voters (surprisingly, he picked up most of them after the first debate, not the second).

Warren got ranked high on her debate performance but only got a moderate uptick in votes (polled high after the 1st debate but lost some of those after the 2nd). However her favorability rating went up and unfavorability actually went down, meaning she might be in a better position to pick up more voters as other candidates drop out.

Castro rated high for his debate performance and improved his favorability a lot, picked up some new voters but still has a ton of work to do to pull out of the pack at the bottom.

Booker got a good rating for his debate performance and improved his favorability but didn't really pick up any new voters.

Biden lost a bunch of voters and saw his unfavorability ratings tick up.

Yang got a poor debate rating and didn't pick up anyone.

Klobucher, Ryan, Tulsi, Inslee, Delaney, Buttigieg, Gillibrand, Swalwell, Hickenlooper, and Bennet were all basically non-factors.

Williamson not only crashed, she's somehow now the only candidate with a negative favorability rating

Everyone hates DeBlasio.

Who Won The First Democratic Debate?

 

[Rhapture]

Yeah Harris surprised us. She went for the jugular

 

[Professor Emeritus]

I usually don't like looking at the polls so early but this is different as they taking out the usual bias and showing what effect the debate really had.

Some more interesting data:


Biden lost his voters mostly to Harris, and after that Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. Somehow he picked up a meaningful number of undecideds after the 1st debate.

Warren's pickup after the first debate came at the expense of Bernie, Harris, and Buttigieg, along with some undecideds. After the 2nd debate she lost nearly everyone she had picked up to Harris, but picked up a few more from Biden.

After the first debate Bernie lost votes to Warren, but for some reason picked up a bunch of votes from Biden and just about everyone else. After the 2nd debate he somehow lost some of those votes back to Biden, and a few to Harris, but picked a lot of his Warren votes back up.

Harris lost a few votes to Warren after the 1st debate, but picked up GIANT amounts of voters from Biden and Warren after the 2nd debate.

Buttigieg lost a lot to Warren in the first debate and Harris in the 2nd. He did pick up a few from Biden though.

Booker pulled some voters from Biden, Sanders, and Warren after the first debate, but gave most of them back after the 2nd debate along with some to Harris.

 

[Berniewood Hogan]

Biden doesn't appear capable of recovering from this. It will only get worse. A career presidential campaign loser. A bum. Obama is somewhere laughing at the downfall of his ball and chain.

 

[Secure Da Bag]

Williamson not only crashed, she's somehow now the only candidate with a negative favorability rating

Mentioning reparations, then sounding incoherent will do that to you.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

Biden doesn't appear capable of recovering from this. It will only get worse. A career presidential campaign loser. A bum. Obama is somewhere laughing at the downfall of his ball and chain.

I’m not so sure this is a deathblow to Biden yet. We’ll know for sure if he drops among old black voters. I assume old white Biden voters are anyway.

 

[Althalucian]

Mentioning reparations, then sounding incoherent will do that to you.

Mentioning reparations like she did really hurt the cause.

 

[LurkMoar]

Mentioning reparations like she did really hurt the cause.

Reparations is a non starter with white liberals, let alone conservatives.

 

[Althalucian]

Reparations is a non starter with white liberals, let alone conservatives.

It gained media traction but not meaningful traction. Still, having her mention it is insulting.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Reparations is a non starter with white liberals, let alone conservatives.

Nah, Ta-Nehisi Coates made it a legit topic at the starting level. Who do you think all these liberal candidates are fighting over talking about reparations in public? There ain't enough pro-reparations black folk voting to make someone cape for something that's gonna get all the white folk against you unless some of the white folk are liking it too.

It's still ain't enough to even get passed among Dems though. And I don't know what it will take to make the next step.

 

[Berniewood Hogan]

It's still ain't enough to even get passed among Dems though. And I don't know what it will take to make the next step.

Cacs would be more amenable to the issue if they weren't preoccupied with worries about the affordability of healthcare, the guarantee of a job, no more wars around the corner, college for their kids, etc.

A political revolution would open the door to reparations.

But nah, better vote Trump or Oprah's spiritual adviser.

 

[88m3]

Bernie has performed abysmally bad at the debates but like the last election the nomination is his to lose. It's a shame he's incapable of heeling the rifts that he's created with voters.


I know a lot of people really like him and want(need) him to win but it's the truth.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Bernie has performed abysmally bad at the debates but like the last election the nomination is his to lose. It's a shame he's incapable of heeling the rifts that he's created with voters.


I know a lot of people really like him and want(need) him to win but it's the truth.

How are you getting that from the numbers?

Bernie had the highest debate performance rating other than Harris and Warren (although that's distorted a bit by his popularity going in)

Bernie gained more in the before/after polls than anyone other than Harris

Bernie's favorable rating jumped by 2% to 76.3% after the debate such that he's now the candidate with the highest favorability.

Bernie's the only candidate other than Warren whose unfavorable rating didn't go up after the debate.

 

[BoBurnz]

How are you getting that from the numbers?

Bernie had the highest debate performance rating other than Harris and Warren (although that's distorted a bit by his popularity going in)

Bernie gained more in the before/after polls than anyone other than Harris

Bernie's favorable rating jumped by 2% to 76.3% after the debate such that he's now the candidate with the highest favorability.

Bernie's the only candidate other than Warren whose unfavorable rating didn't go up after the debate.

His floor is really what's going to bouy him, he'll never have to worry about a massive drop-off which means he can lean into his stump speech and carry his high favorability to a higher ceiling because it gives him the position as the fallback candidate and allows him to hold back on being the aggressor until much later than everybody else in the process. He's in a position of tremendous strength right now.

 

[Geek Nasty]

Yeah Harris surprised us. She went for the jugular

Yeah she went after his nuts like she thought he was hiring